Why a time effect often has a limited impact on capture‐recapture estimates in closed populations

The author is concerned with log‐linear estimators of the size N of a population in a capture‐recapture experiment featuring heterogeneity in the individual capture probabilities and a time effect. He also considers models where the first capture influences the probability of subsequent captures. He derives several results from a new inequality associated with a dispersive ordering for discrete random variables. He shows that in a log‐linear model with inter‐individual heterogeneity, the estimator N is an increasing function of the heterogeneity parameter. He also shows that the inclusion of a time effect in the capture probabilities decreases N in models without heterogeneity. He further argues that a model featuring heterogeneity can accommodate a time effect through a small change in the heterogeneity parameter. He demonstrates these results using an inequality for the estimators of the heterogeneity parameters and illustrates them in a Monte Carlo experiment     

Seat belt laws: why we should keep them

In the June 2007 issue of Significance , John Adams argued for the repeal of seat belt laws. They have never been demonstrated to save lives, he said; and they increase the number of pedestrians and cyclists killed on the roads. Richard Allsop, Oliver Carsten, Andrew Evans and Robert Gifford argue that Parliament should keep the seat belt laws on the statute book and that we should all keep wearing belts whenever we travel in a car, van or coach—and they contest John's statistics.     

Cultural Context of Career Choice: Meta‐Analysis of Race/Ethnicity Differences

The authors focus on career counseling from a cultural perspective, using the proxy construct of race/ethnicity. They briefly describe traditional career counseling and critique the degree to which the myriad cultural contexts that shape clients' career development are incorporated into vocational theories and practice. They conducted a meta‐analysis of research that has investigated the relationship between culture and vocational choice variables and concluded (a) that race/ethnicity differences do not greatly affect career aspirations but (b) that there are differences among racial/ethnic groups in perceptions of career‐related opportunities and barriers.     

A cross-national study of a method for researching non-profit organisational effectiveness

Are there criteria that define non-profit organisation effectiveness? If the criteria can be identified, is it possible to use them in a comparative study to assess whether and in what way the use of the criteria may vary between nations? This study addresses both questions. The study uses the factorial survey method and is based on the social constructionist conception that effectiveness is created as an ongoing and sometimes contested outcome of a social judgement process. We illustrate the method with samples from the US and UK and compare the results. The results establish the value of the factorial survey method. Analyses show that both US and UK respondents use percentage expenditures on fund-raising, advocacy emphasis, change in financial surplus and unit cost of services as effectiveness criteria. There is evidence that voluntarism is a more important criterion in the US and that advocacy is more important in the UK.     

Practice and Research in Career Counseling and Development—2002

The authors present a review of the 2002 career development literature. The literature review is divided into the following areas: career theory, career assessment, career counseling interventions and practice, career counseling training and professional issues, and international issues in career counseling. The authors discuss the implications of the findings in this literature for career counseling practice.     

Gender‐Related Opportunities and Turnover: The Case of Medical Sector Employees

This study examined the relationships between gender, objective and perceived work‐related opportunities, and turnover behavior. This was achieved using an interdisciplinary approach that combined the macro‐level perspective on opportunities in internal and external labor markets, with the micro‐level perspective of individual perceptions of opportunities. The results revealed that the opportunities–turnover linkage is gender‐specific rather than gender‐neutral. Women's turnover behavior was affected by their ‘perception’ of employment opportunities in the organizational and local labor markets. By contrast, men's turnover behavior was affected by ‘objective’, organizational and local labor market conditions. These findings indicate that the objective opportunities of the work market may be compatible with men’s, but not women’s, work needs and hence question existing assumptions of a ‘gender‐neutral’ effect of opportunities on turnover decisions.     

Portfolio assessment in a collaborative program evaluation: the reliability and validity of a family literacy portfolio

Evaluations increasingly use open-ended assessments, such as portfolios, to gather information about program impact. Portfolios, however, present challenges in achieving acceptable levels of reliability and often lack evidence to support validity. This article describes the components of a portfolio assessment system developed in a collaborative evaluation of a family literacy program. Staff of a family literacy program and two evaluators collaborated to develop the assessment and the tools that frame the review of the portfolios. Rubrics, exemplar portfolios, portfolio logs, and lists of ‘look-fors’ were developed to guide raters in the scoring and to improve the reliability of scores and validity of decisions about the program. Inter-rater reliability for the portfolio assessment was 0.79 for holistic scores and 0.74 for analytic scores. With respect to validity, holistic and analytic scores correlated with criterion measures from 0.50 to 0.59, providing initial evidence of a common construct.