Estimating chance reproducibility in Guttman Scaling

A definition of reproducibility in Guttman Scaling and two chance measures of reproducibility are suggested. The first measure assumes that the items are independent. The second method assumes nonindependent items and fits respondent and item margins by an iterative method used in fitting log-linear models. Chance reproducibility is conceptualized in terms of assumptions about respondent variability.     

Beyond single mothers: Cohabitation and marriage in the AFDC program

We investigate the extent and implications of cohabitation and marriage among U.S. welfare recipients. An analysis of four data sets (the Current Population Survey, the National Survey of Families and Households, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth) shows significant numbers of cohabitors among recipients of AFDC. An even more surprising finding is the large number of married women on welfare. We also report the results of a telephone survey of state AFDC agencies conducted to determine state rules governing cohabitation and marriage. The survey results indicate that, in a number of respects, AFDC rules encourage cohabitation. Finally, we conduct an analysis of the impact of AFDC rules on cohabitation, marriage, and single motherhood and find weak evidence in support of incentives to cohabit.     

Early-Onset Psychiatric Disorders and Male Socioeconomic Status

We seek to integrate economic, sociological and psychological models by examining whether early-onset psychiatric disorders predict adult male socioeconomic status. Unlike most status attainment studies, we include information on major psychiatric disorders. We use data from the National Comorbidity Survey, the first survey to administer a structured psychiatric interview to a national probability sample in the U.S. Our sample includes men between the ages of 25 and 54. We find that disorders that occur before age 16 reduce educational attainment and the probability of being currently married and increase the probability of having a recent disorder, each of which is a predictor of adult male unemployment. We also find that these early-onset disorders have a direct negative effect on male employment. The estimated magnitudes of these effects are often as large as those of family background variables, suggesting that research on adult male SES should pay greater attention to mental health issues.     

世界新秩序和美国对华新政策

本文论述美国１９９７年后对华新政策。文章综述９０年代起美国历届政府的对华的检讨,到１９９７年克林顿政府采取对华新政策,主要是稳定亚洲、中国大陆、台湾,以确保美国在亚洲战略地位和经济利益