Nonparametric regression estimation of conditional tails: the random covariate case

We present families of nonparametric estimators for the conditional tail index of a Pareto-type distribution in the presence of random covariates. These families are constructed from locally weighted sums of power transformations of excesses over a high threshold. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are derived under some assumptions on the conditional response distribution, the weight function and the density function of the covariates. We also introduce bias-corrected versions of the estimators for the conditional tail index, and propose in this context a consistent estimator for the second-order tail parameter. The finite sample performance of some specific examples from our classes of estimators is illustrated with a small simulation experiment.     

Metamodeling of aircraft infrared signature dispersion

Existing computer simulations of aircraft InfraRed Signature (IRS) do not account for the dispersion induced by uncertainty on input data such as aircraft aspect angles and meteorological conditions. As a result, they are of little use to estimate the detection performance of optronic systems: in that case, the scenario encompasses a lot of possible situations that must indeed be addressed, but cannot be singly simulated. In this paper, a three-step methodological approach for predicting simulated IRS dispersion of imperfectly known aircraft is proposed. The first step is a sensitivity analysis. The second step consists in a Quasi-Monte Carlo survey of the code output dispersion. In the last step, a neural network metamodel of the IRS simulation code is constructed. It will allow carrying out thorough computationally demanding tasks, such as those required for optimization of an optronic sensor. This method is illustrated in a typical scenario, namely an air-to-ground full-frontal attack by a generic combat aircraft, and gives satisfactory estimation of the infrared signature dispersion.     

OECD's ‘Better Life Index’: can any country be well ranked?

We critically review the Better Life Index (BLI) recently introduced by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We discuss methodological issues in the definition of the criteria used to rank the countries, as well as in their aggregation method. Moreover, we explore the unique option offered by the BLI to apply one's own weight set to 11 criteria. Although 16 countries can be ranked first by choosing ad hoc weightings, only Canada, Australia and Sweden do so over a substantial fraction of the parameter space defined by all possible weight sets. Furthermore, most pairwise comparisons between countries are insensitive to the choice of the weights. Therefore, the BLI establishes a hierarchy among the evaluated countries, independent of the chosen set of weights.     

IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH: THE IMPACT OF ILLNESS ON COUPLES' RELATIONSHIPS

When illness or disability strikes a couple's relationship, a number of significant structural and emotional skews are likely. A normative, preventive framework that addresses the special strains on couples can counteract dysfunctional relationship patterns and enhance opportunities for increased intimacy. This paper addresses key issues regarding intimacy and communication and then identifies key skews and treatment priorities to help couples rebalance their relationship. These include skews regarding (a) whose problem it is, (b) boundary issues, (c) patient-caregiver roles, (d) togetherness/separateness, (e) psychosocial recovery, (f) cognitive impairment, (g) gender, (h) sexuality, (i) belief systems, and (j) life cycle. Particular dilemmas for gay and lesbian relationships are noted. Dealing with these skews can promote a couple's resilience in the face of loss     

Extension and the disposal of the world: Double‐crossing systems,culture, self and language

Long indexed by sociological ideas of structure, the notion of extension is yet disparate and poorly disseminated – as evidenced by popular motifs such as ‘the world is at our disposal’ eschewing notions of emplacement and embeddedness and instead championing choice and individualised agency. On the assumption that this lacunae relates in part to paradigm debates over incommensurability, the proposal in this inaugural lecture is to explore double‐crossing as a methodological device by which to draw insights on extension from major ‘gatherings’ of Euro‐American thought, while respecting the orderings, institutional arrangements, situations and networks each approach imposes. In retracing the ‘disposal’ of the world through four theoretical perspectives germane to sociology – namely systems, culture, self and language – the objective is to illustrate the methodology of double crossing. Drawing on both my work on social and cultural theory and my field studies in market leaders, I first show how moving back and forth between the older and newer ground within each perspective helps to elicit what gets unsighted from either view. Secondly, inasmuch as the usual way of ‘making a clearing’ is argued as caught ‘in reaction’ from extant theory (ending up say talking of parts instead of wholes or consumption in place of production), I advance the methodology of double‐crossing by excavating the recessive arrangements and ordering implicit in each perspective and so illuminate the different ways extension is affected by how world is imagined and experienced.     

Migrating Gender Inequalities? Immigrant Women's Participation in Political Survey Research

This study examines the participation of immigrant women in political surveys in Canada as a form of political participation. Investigating immigrant women's participation in the various components of the Canadian Election Studies, this study highlights the structuring impact of pre‐migration experiences with gender inequalities from two different perspectives. The larger the gender inequalities in immigrant women's country of origin, the lower their retention rate to the post‐election surveys, and the greater their propensity to provide non‐responses to political survey‐items. This study contributes to a better understanding of immigrant political integration and the related impact of pre‐migration experiences.     

Sampling Strategies for Evaluating the Rate of Adventitious Transgene Presence in Non‐Genetically Modified Crop Fields

According to E.U. regulations, the maximum allowable rate of adventitious transgene presence in non‐genetically modified (GM) crops is 0.9%. We compared four sampling methods for the detection of transgenic material in agricultural non‐GM maize fields: random sampling, stratified sampling, random sampling + ratio reweighting, random sampling + regression reweighting. Random sampling involves simply sampling maize grains from different locations selected at random from the field concerned. The stratified and reweighting sampling methods make use of an auxiliary variable corresponding to the output of a gene‐flow model (a zero‐inflated Poisson model) simulating cross‐pollination as a function of wind speed, wind direction, and distance to the closest GM maize field. With the stratified sampling method, an auxiliary variable is used to define several strata with contrasting transgene presence rates, and grains are then sampled at random from each stratum. With the two methods involving reweighting, grains are first sampled at random from various locations within the field, and the observations are then reweighted according to the auxiliary variable. Data collected from three maize fields were used to compare the four sampling methods, and the results were used to determine the extent to which transgene presence rate estimation was improved by the use of stratified and reweighting sampling methods. We found that transgene rate estimates were more accurate and that substantially smaller samples could be used with sampling strategies based on an auxiliary variable derived from a gene‐flow model.     

De la vigne à la rue : la difficile mobilisation des petits viticulteurs dans le département de l’Aude

The European Commission's specialized services are trying to tighten their grip over viticulture by invoking the legitimating figure of a “new consumer”. Accordingly, growers who work small vineyards are unable to make a wine adapted to market trends. They should, therefore, withdraw from wine-growing and enjoy the subsidies granted by the EU for uprooting vineyards. In Aude Department, southern France, small wine-growers take issue with this analysis, which, in their opinion, caves in to the pressure exerted by traders and hypermarket chain stores. However, there have been no protest actions against the Commission's decisions. This can be explained by the way the EU's policy is embedded in national and local conflicts. Although we cannot point to any joint plan, administrations, trade associations and political parties are developing practices that prevent organized protests.