Mass Protests in the Context of the Russian Power Regime

The mass protests in Russia in late 2011 and early 2012 can be seen as a reaction to the prevalence of a special model of power relationships—the Russian power regime. This article discusses scenarios in which the mass protests are a first step toward the transition from the equilibrium of the Russian power regime to the equilibrium of a democratic regime, with an emphasis on the reform of municipal and regional governance and of university life.     

Running on age in a 15-km road run: minor influence of age on performance

The importance of exercise in the elderly is widely recognized, but data on performances and drop-out in short running contests are lacking. This hinders stimulation and coaching of elderly persons in active aging. The aim of the study was to determine age-related changes in running performance in the most popular Dutch road run, and how this is influenced by gender, training, and increased participation rate over the last decade. This is a retrospective analysis of 194,560 participants of a 15-km run from 1995 to 2007. Multiple regression analysis of running time by age, gender, and training was performed. Trends in participation were examined by chi-square tests and ANOVA. Trends in running time and speed were examined by t tests. With aging, running time increased with 0.20% per year (P < 0.001). Running time was on average 13% (P < 0.001) shorter in men than in women and was 15.7% (P < 0.001) shorter in participants who trained on a regular basis. Decline in performance with age was 5.9% larger for men than women (P < 0.01) and 4.5% larger for trained than untrained participants (P < 0.01). Over the last decade, participation numbers increased most for elderly (≥60 years) and female participants, mean running performance declined with 9.9% (P < 0.001). Drop-out number was low at all ages (0.13–0.29%). It appears that aging has only minor negative influences on running performance, which can even be attenuated by training. Our data suggest that exercise by means of running is a safe and rewarding option for improvement of healthy and active aging.     

Dual process theories: A key for understanding the diversification bias?

The diversification bias in repeated lotteries is the finding that a majority of participants fail to select the option offering the highest probability. This phenomenon is systematic and immune to classical manipulations (e.g. monetary rewards). We apply dual process theories and argue that the diversification bias is a consequence of System 1 (automatic, intuitive, associative) triggering a matching response, which fails to be corrected by System 2 (intentional, analytic, rational). Empirically, supporting the corrective functions of System 2 through appropriate contextual cues (describing the task as a statistical test rather than as a lottery) led to a decrease of diversification.

The anxiety of affect: melodrama and South African film studies

This paper argues that the realist approach typically adopted in South African film studies reduces films to message‐bearing narratives in a way that ignores the specificity of the medium. Conversely, melodrama both as cinematic genre and as expressive register explicitly draws our attention away from issues of right representation to other neglected but essential dimensions of cinema. We argue that, far from being morally reductive or politically quietist, melodrama is a representational mode wholly appropriate to understanding the South African context including the painful stories of its apartheid past. To illustrate this broader critical point we offer an analysis of two films (of 2004) about the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) – In My Country and Forgiveness – which, we argue, can only be adequately understood if their uses of the visual and affective strategies of melodrama, which are consonant with aspects of the TRC itself, are acknowledged.     

European rural regions in the era of globalization: the South Moravia case study

Rural regions are perceived mostly on a local, regional or national scale, but globalization impacts also on the countryside. Both production and consumption in rural regions are similar throughout Europe, being directed from the very limited number of global centers. Local authorities do not always react appropriately. Present trends in rural businesses, migration of rural population, sustainable rural development and capacity-building are investigated in 10 European case study regions within the DERREG project of 7th EU framework program. Preliminary findings for the South Moravia case study are presented in the paper.     

主流族群与少数族群的权利之辨:论加拿大黑人、社会团体与多元文化主义

任何关于权利的讨论都涉及阶级差别。加拿大黑人作为多元文化主义政策下的少数族群,始终面临种族歧视并产生文化认同问题。这既反映了主流族群借民主、平等之名施行种族渗透策略,多元文化主义在本质上将走向最终的同化,也反映了黑人群体的认同更多是基于贫穷的经济地位。黑人学校教育已经产生的争议充分证明黑人少数族群在多元文化主义之下的权利之争应该是与种族主义、贫穷、边缘化做斗争。     

A graphic representation of projection accuracy

In demographic literature, little attention has been paid to the problem of measuring projection accuracy. Experience with applying the accuracy measure quality of prediction, as proposed by Keyfitz, leads the author to a critical evaluation and elaboration of this accuracy measure. Time series of prediction quality values may show a remarkable temporal instability, partly depending on the chosen bench mark, which seriously hinders interpretation. This interpretation problem may be solved by an easily applicable graphical solution, a convenient short-circuit device to assess a projection's accuracy without restrictions as to size of population or length of projection period.On s'est peu préoccupé jusqu'ici de la mesure de la précision des projections dans les publications démographiques. L'utilisation de la mesure proposée par Keyfitz sous le terme qualité de la prévision, conduit l'auteur à une évaluation critique et à une élaboration de cette mesure de la précision. Des séries temporelles portant sur la qualité de la prévision peuvent conduire à une instabilité marquée au cours du temps, dépendant en partie de la norme choisie, qui empêche toute interprétation sérieuse. Ce problème d'interprétation peut être résolu par une solution graphique d'application facile, court-circuit utile pour évaluer la précision d'une projection sans aucune restriction liée à la taille de la population ou à la durée de la période de projection.