Reversible jump methods for generalised linear models and generalised linear mixed models

A reversible jump algorithm for Bayesian model determination among generalised linear models, under relatively diffuse prior distributions for the model parameters, is proposed. Orthogonal projections of the current linear predictor are used so that knowledge from the current model parameters is used to make effective proposals. This idea is generalised to moves of a reversible jump algorithm for model determination among generalised linear mixed models. Therefore, this algorithm exploits the full flexibility available in the reversible jump method. The algorithm is demonstrated via two examples and compared to existing methods.     

发展适用于活体细胞中RNA分析和成像的新型分子信标

很多研究采用分子信标技术来作为活体细胞中RNA表达研究的成像手段。然而,越来越多的证据表明,由于该技术易产生假阳性信号使得RNA的检测灵敏度显著降低。本文就如何克服这些缺陷,实现活体细胞中RNA的高灵敏检测来构建分子信标进行了阐述。     

Six-sigma for improving Top-Box Customer Satisfaction score for a banking call centre

Six Sigma process improvement methodology has been accepted globally across the service industry. In past one decade, the application and success of Six Sigma in Services is remarkable across Information Technology organisations, Hospitality firms, Government, Healthcare firms and Banking & Financial Sector. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of Six Sigma within call centres where the metric based environment complements the application of Six Sigma for process improvements. The article establishes the literature for the need for Six Sigma in call centre environment elaborating on customer facing metrics in addition to internal performance measures and highlighting the advantages of Six Sigma. A case study is presented in the second part of the article to study the DMAIC project management approach of Six Sigma for improving the Top Box Customer Satisfaction score of a Banking call centre. The literature identifies the possible opportunities for improving the performance of call centre metrics using Six Sigma. The project case study presented as part of the paper delivered a saving of USD 0.27 million to the bank, and is a classic example of how Six Sigma can bring bottom-line impact to an organisation. The article is limited to elaborate the advantages of Six Sigma in call centre environment, emphasising on its need and its compatibility to go along successfully with change acceleration and project management processes. Managerial implications and lessons learned are discussed alongside the concluding notes.     

Human Relations Training in Schools and Elsewhere

Human relations training in many forms, the best known of which are encounter groups, enjoys wide popularity in industry, government and education. Some ‘professional’ objections to the running of such groups are raised, and it is proposed that these objections may be partially answered if there is a non-profit-making national association of group leaders whose function would be to provide a code of ethics to members and information to the public. As well as these professional objections involving the areas of leadership, screening and casualties, there are also objections to the 'process' of groups itself; to these latter objections arising out of an individual's sensibility and subjective interpretations of events, no compelling reply can be given. Affirmation of the interactions in encounter groups is likewise a subjective matter.     

Social context and the experience of emotion

This study examines the relationship between the social context of events and emotional experience. For each of six emotions four different vignettes were devised. Two of these four events took place in private circumstances and two in public. Furthermore, the sociality of each situation was systematically varied, and subjects were presented with situations framed in one of three social contexts: alone, in the presence of a stranger, or in the presence of a friend. Subjects were asked for self-reports of emotional state, evaluations of pleasantness and loneliness, perceived ability to cope with negative situations, and the likelihood that they would share the emotional experience with another person. Anger was the only emotion that varied as a function of the social context manipulation, and this effect disappeared when evaluations of social context were controlled for. However, for all emotions, the intensity of experience differed between private and public situations, suggesting that sociality and emotionality are related at a more global level.     

Preventing child abuse; a review of community-based projects 1. Intervening on processes and outcome of reviews

Recent theories advocating ecological and developmental perspectives on child abuse and neglect are summarized. Reviews of community prevention programmes underline the importance of focusing on processes and viewing the developing child and their family in a broad context. The conclusions of the reviews are reported. Although the reviews suggest that some programmes to prevent physical and sexual abuse and bullying are at least to some degree effective, their impact has been reduced by a failure to encompass adequately the various influences that operate across difference domains of the child's life at different stages of their development. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying uncertainty in transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo using discrete Markov models

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) relies on sampling a discrete indexing variable to estimate the posterior model probabilities. However, little attention has been paid to the precision of these estimates. If only few switches occur between the models in the transdimensional MCMC output, precision may be low and assessment based on the assumption of independent samples misleading. Here, we propose a new method to estimate the precision based on the observed transition matrix of the model-indexing variable. Assuming a first-order Markov model, the method samples from the posterior of the stationary distribution. This allows assessment of the uncertainty in the estimated posterior model probabilities, model ranks, and Bayes factors. Moreover, the method provides an estimate for the effective sample size of the MCMC output. In two model selection examples, we show that the proposed approach provides a good assessment of the uncertainty associated with the estimated posterior model probabilities.

     

The international division of labour and strategies for global reform: Issues and implications for professional manpower and training

The manual dexterity of the oriental female is famous all over the world. Her hands are small and she works fast with extreme care. Who, therefore, could be better qualified by nature and inheritance to contribute to the efficiency of a bench assembly production line than the oriental girl.