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101.
Arthur J. Gavigan 《Statistical Papers》1988,29(1):247-248
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This study investigates the relationship of panel accretion to panel attrition and examines its impact on threats to external validity in adolescent substance use research. Panel accretion involves the addition of new participants to a panel design after initial baseline data has been obtained. Accretion occurs in longitudinal studies in which data is routinely gathered on all participants, as is often the case in prevention or epidemiological research on adolescent substance use. Accretion, attrition, and panel findings for three, 2-year panel samples in grades 7 through 9 are examined. The results indicate that accretion and attrition samples have an isomorphic relationship to one another on a range of dependent measures when drawn from the same population. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for adolescent substance use research, the examination of validity threats due to panel bias, and understanding the ecological validity of research findings. 相似文献
105.
Daniel M. Byrd III Donald O. Allen Robert L. Beamer Henry R. Besch Jr. David B. Bylund John Doull William W. Fleming Arthur Fries F. Peter Guengerich Roger Hornbrook Louis Lasagna Bert K. B. Lum Elias K. Michaelis Edward T. Morgan Alan Poland Karl K. Rozman J. Bryan Smith Hollie I. Swanson William Waddell James D. Wilson 《Risk analysis》1998,18(1):1-2
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This article reports the results of an exploratory study of the organizational characteristics, functions, and roles of intermediary nonprofit organizations selected by the European Union to deliver global grant funding in relation to its Special Support Programme for Peace and Reconciliation in Northern Ireland. The results show that the main factor for determining organizational processes is the need to respond to conflicting pressures from two directions: upward to funding agencies and downward to community groups. This produces contradictory demands that are imported into the organizations as a set of internal tensions. The different structures and capabilities developed by the organizations to maintain unity and integrity in response to these tensions are explored and related to differences in the perceived role of the organizations. 相似文献
107.
Arthur Snow 《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》2010,40(2):133-145
The value of information is studied in a non-expected utility model of ambiguity with second-order probabilities. Information
that reduces ambiguity has a positive value for ambiguity-averse decision makers, and the value of information that resolves
ambiguity increases with greater ambiguity and with greater ambiguity aversion. Since information that resolves risk is valuable,
and must also resolve ambiguity, the value of such information for ambiguity averters increases with greater ambiguity and
with greater ambiguity aversion. 相似文献
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109.
Arthur S. Rood Patricia D. McGavran Jill W. Aanenson & John E. Till 《Risk analysis》2001,21(4):675-696
Carbon tetrachloride is a degreasing agent that was used at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Colorado to clean product components and equipment. The chemical is considered a volatile organic compound and a probable human carcinogen. During the time the plant operated (1953-1989), most of the carbon tetrachloride was released to the atmosphere through building exhaust ducts. A smaller amount was released to the air via evaporation from open-air burn pits and ground-surface discharge points. Airborne releases from the plant were conservatively estimated to be equivalent to the amount of carbon tetrachloride consumed annually by the plant, which was estimated to be between 3.6 and 180 Mg per year. This assumption was supported by calculations that showed that most of the carbon tetrachloride discharged to the ground surface would subsequently be released to the atmosphere. Atmospheric transport of carbon tetrachloride from the plant to the surrounding community was estimated using a Gaussian Puff dispersion model (RATCHET). Time-integrated concentrations were estimated for nine hypothetical but realistic exposure scenarios that considered variation in lifestyle, location, age, and gender. Uncertainty distributions were developed for cancer slope factors and atmospheric dispersion factors. These uncertainties were propagated through to the final risk estimate using Monte Carlo techniques. The geometric mean risk estimates varied from 5.2 x 10(-6) for a hypothetical rancher or laborer working near the RFP to 3.4 x 10(-9) for an infant scenario. The distribution of incremental lifetime cancer incidence risk for the hypothetical rancher was between 1.3 x 10(-6) (5% value) and 2.1 x 10(-5) (95% value). These estimates are similar to or exceed estimated cancer risks posed by releases of radionuclides from the site. 相似文献
110.
John Arthur Bukowski 《Risk analysis》2009,29(9):1203-1216
This article evaluates the quality and weight of evidence associated with epidemiologic studies of cancer among occupational cohorts exposed to chloroprene. The focus is on liver, lung, and lymphohematopoietic cancers, which had been increased in early studies. Literature searches identified eight morbidity/mortality studies covering seven chloroprene-exposed cohorts from six countries. These studies were summarized and their quality was assessed using the 10 criteria suggested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The limitations within this literature (primarily the early studies) included crude exposure assessment, incomplete follow-up, uncertain baseline rates, and uncontrolled confounding by factors such as smoking, drinking, and co-exposure to benzene and vinyl chloride. Four cohorts were studied by the same group of investigators, who reported no overall increased associations for any cancers. This four-cohort study was by far the most rigorous, having the most comprehensive exposure assessment and follow-up and the most detailed documentation. This study also contained the two largest cohorts, including an American cohort from Louisville, Kentucky, that ranked at or near the top for each of the 10 quality criteria. There was evidence of a strong healthy worker effect in the four-cohort study, which could have hidden small excess risks. Small increased risks were suggested by internal or company-specific analyses, but these were most likely caused by uncontrolled confounding and low baseline rates. Overall, the weight of evidence does not support any substantial link between chloroprene exposure and cancer, but inconsistencies and a lack of control for major confounders preclude drawing firmer conclusions. 相似文献