An integrative approach to assess environmental and economic sustainability in multi-tier supply chains

Abstract

Multi-tier supply chain sustainability is paramount to achieve corporate sustainability, due to the significant impacts from organisations beyond the focal firm boundaries and its direct suppliers. However, including environmental considerations within the dominant profit-centric logic of supply chain related decisions is prone to generate sustainability tensions. This work aims to support organisations address tensions between sustainability dimensions by adopting an integrative approach for sustainable supply chain management performance assessment thanks to an innovative eco-intensity based performance assessment method, which achieves a balanced consideration of environmental and economic performance in a weak sustainability perspective. The method, using primary data sourced from actual practice and featuring an indirect multi-tier approach with decentralised responsibilities across organisations, is applied to a case study of a machinery supply chain. The proposed integrative approach can support addressing sustainability tensions in the area of sustainable supply chain management, facilitate sustainable supplier evaluation and identify supply chain hotspots for operational improvement.     

A Bayesian nonparametric Markovian model for non-stationary time series

Stationary time series models built from parametric distributions are, in general, limited in scope due to the assumptions imposed on the residual distribution and autoregression relationship. We present a modeling approach for univariate time series data, which makes no assumptions of stationarity, and can accommodate complex dynamics and capture non-standard distributions. The model for the transition density arises from the conditional distribution implied by a Bayesian nonparametric mixture of bivariate normals. This results in a flexible autoregressive form for the conditional transition density, defining a time-homogeneous, non-stationary Markovian model for real-valued data indexed in discrete time. To obtain a computationally tractable algorithm for posterior inference, we utilize a square-root-free Cholesky decomposition of the mixture kernel covariance matrix. Results from simulated data suggest that the model is able to recover challenging transition densities and non-linear dynamic relationships. We also illustrate the model on time intervals between eruptions of the Old Faithful geyser. Extensions to accommodate higher order structure and to develop a state-space model are also discussed.     

EWMA control charts for monitoring correlated counts with finite range

In this work, we develop and study upper and lower one-sided EWMA control charts for monitoring correlated counts with finite range. Often in practice, data of that kind can be adequately described by a first-order binomial or beta-binomial autoregressive model. Especially, when there is evidence that data demonstrate extra-binomial variation, the latter model is preferable than the former. The proposed charts can be used for detecting upward or downward shifts in process mean level. Practical guidelines concerning the statistical design of the proposed charts are given, while the effect of the extra-binomial variation is investigated as well. Comparisons with existing control charting procedures are also provided. Finally, an illustrative real-data example is also given.     

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of marked non-homogeneous Poisson processes with finite mixtures and inclusion of covariate information

We investigate marked non-homogeneous Poisson processes using finite mixtures of bivariate normal components to model the spatial intensity function. We employ a Bayesian hierarchical framework for estimation of the parameters in the model, and propose an approach for including covariate information in this context. The methodology is exemplified through an application involving modeling of and inference for tornado occurrences.     

The effect of parameter estimation on the performance of one-sided Shewhart control charts for zero-inflated processes

ABSTRACT

Zero-inflated probability models are used to model count data that have an excessive number of zeros. Shewhart-type control charts have been proposed for the monitoring of zero-inflated processes. Usually their performance is evaluated under the assumption of known process parameters. However, in practice, their values are rarely known and they have to be estimated from an in-control historical Phase I sample. In the present paper, we investigate the performance of Shewhart-type control charts for zero-inflated processes with estimated parameters and propose practical guidelines for the statistical design of the examined charts, when the size of the preliminary sample is predetermined.     

Discussion of paper “nonparametric Bayesian inference in applications” by Peter Müller,Fernando A. Quintana and Garritt L. Page

This is an invited discussion of review paper “Nonparametric Bayesian Inference in Applications” by Peter Müller, Fernando A. Quintana and Garritt L. Page.     

Modelling stochastic order in the analysis of receiver operating characteristic data: Bayesian non-parametric approaches

Summary.  The evaluation of the performance of a continuous diagnostic measure is a commonly encountered task in medical research. We develop Bayesian non-parametric models that use Dirichlet process mixtures and mixtures of Polya trees for the analysis of continuous serologic data. The modelling approach differs from traditional approaches to the analysis of receiver operating characteristic curve data in that it incorporates a stochastic ordering constraint for the distributions of serologic values for the infected and non-infected populations. Biologically such a constraint is virtually always feasible because serologic values from infected individuals tend to be higher than those for non-infected individuals. The models proposed provide data-driven inferences for the infected and non-infected population distributions, and for the receiver operating characteristic curve and corresponding area under the curve. We illustrate and compare the predictive performance of the Dirichlet process mixture and mixture of Polya trees approaches by using serologic data for Johne's disease in dairy cattle.     

Discriminating membrane proteins using the joint distribution of length sums of success and failure runs

Discriminating integral membrane proteins from water-soluble ones, has been over the past decades an important goal for computational molecular biology. A major drawback of methods appeared in the literature, is that most of the authors tried to solve the problem using machine learning techniques. Specifically, most of the proposed methods require an appropriate dataset for training, and consequently the results depend heavily on the suitability of the dataset, itself. Motivated by these facts, in this paper we develop a formal discrimination procedure that is based on appropriate theoretical observations on the sequence of hydrophobic and polar residues along the protein sequence and on the exact distribution of a two dimensional runs-related statistic defined on the same sequence. Specifically, for setting up our discrimination procedure, we study thoroughly the exact distribution of a bivariate random variable, which accumulates the exact lengths of both success and failure runs of at least a specific length in a sequence of Bernoulli trials. To investigate the properties of this bivariate random variable, we use the Markov chain embedding technique. Finally, we apply the new procedure to a well-defined dataset of proteins.