Black and white population change in small American suburbs since World War II: regional differences

"This study examines the relationship between black population concentration (% black), black population change and white population change for small American suburbs for the 1950-1980 period. Linear, tipping point (curvilinear) and interaction models of racial transition are evaluated for each decade by region (South and non-South), controlling for several other suburban characteristics (age, annexation and distance to the Central Business District) which may affect both black and white population change. The analyses show that racial transition in suburbs involves the parallel development of white and black populations with mainly weak and complex causal linkages which are sensitive to broader suburbanization patterns."     

Parents and patients: Members of an interdisciplinary team on an adolescent inpatient unit

In a six-year study on a locked psychiatric hospital unit for adolescents, first patients and then their families became integrated into the interdisciplinary treatment team. The results were universally beneficial. After initial resistance and some fine tuning of their skills, the staff became strong supporters of the program. Parents, no longer one down, developed a close working relationship with the therapists and milieu staff. Treatment planning and implementation was enriched by the interaction and dissension was minimized. Most important of all, the adolescents improved more rapidly and hospital stays were significantly shortened.     

Compulsive gambling and the medical model

The medical model as a conceptual and operative approach to compulsive gambling is discussed. The terms medical model and disease are defined and the practical implications of their application to compulsive gambling are explored. Special attention is given to the addictive disease concept. Finally, a variety of objections to the medical model are described, but it is concluded that the many individual and social advantages of the medical model make it the preferred conceptualization at our present state of knowledge.     

Evidence for a common dissociative-like reaction among addicts

A questionnaire was designed to test selected aspects of the author's General Theory of Addictions (Jacobs, 1982). Data were collected from groups of compulsive gamblers, alcoholics, and compulsive overeaters, and compared with the responses to the same questionnaire obtained from normative samples of adolescents and adults. The more inclusive term, compulsive gambler, has been used throughout, since the sample of gamblers in this study included an inpatient subgroup who had been diagnosed as pathological gamblers, as well as a subgroup of Gamblers Anonymous members who had not been clinically evaluated. Findings support the author's theoretical position that, when indulging, different kinds of addicts will tend to share a common set of dissociativelike experiences that differentiate them from nonaddicts. This has been termed a state of altered identity.     

Dealing with uncertainty: statistics for an aging population

"Uncertainty in statistics and demographic projections for aging and other policy purposes comes from four sources: differences in definitions, sampling error, nonsampling error, and scientific uncertainty. Some of these uncertainties can be reduced by proper planning and coordination, but most often decisions have to be made in the face of some remaining uncertainty. Although decision makers have a tendency to ignore uncertainty, doing so does not lead to good policy-making. Techniques for estimating and reporting on uncertainty include sampling theory, assessment of experts' subjective distributions, sensitivity analysis, and multiple independent estimates." The primary geographical focus is on the United States.     

Birth control in the early stage of marriage

Results are presented from a 1985 survey containing questions on family planning conducted among 13,392 newly married couples in Poland during the period from two to six months following marriage. The opinions of husbands and wives concerning various methods of contraception are analyzed.     

On estimating census undercount in small areas

"Net undercount rates in the U.S. decennial census have been steadily declining over the last several censuses. Differential undercounts among race groups and geographic areas, however, appear to persist. In the following, we examine and compare several methodologies for providing small area estimates of census coverage by constructing artificial populations. Measures of performance are also introduced to assess the various small area estimates. Synthetic estimation in combination with regression modelling provide the best results over the methods considered. Sampling error effects are also simulated. The results form the basis for determining coverage evaluation survey small area estimates of the 1900 decennial census."     

On a conjecture of Kakosyan,Klebanov and Melamed

Suppose X₁, X₂, ..., X_m is a random sample of size m from a population with probability density function f(x), x>0 and let X_1,m<...m,m be the corresponding order statistics. We assume m as an integer valued random variable with P(m=k)=p(1?p)^k?1, k=1, 2, ... and 0 and n X_1,n for fixed n characterizes the exponential distribution. In this paper we prove that under the assumption of monotone hazard rate the identical distribution of and (n?r+1) (X_r,n?X_r?1,n) for some fixed r and n with 1≤r≤n, n≥2, X_0,n=0, characterizes the exponential distribution. Under the assumption of monotone hazard rate the conjecture of Kakosyan, Klebanov and Melamed follows from the above result with r=1.     

The timing of maternity in the Netherlands

In this paper the timing of maternity is estimated by a hazard model. The novel aspect of this paper is that it is shown that wages and total household labor income have a significant effect on the timing of maternity. Both the wage rate of the woman and the wage rate of the husband have a negative effect on the timing of maternity. Total household labor income increases the probability of having a child at an earlier age. Calculated elasticities show that the timing of maternity is relatively elastic with respect to wage rates. However, the elasticities of the decision whether or not to have children altogether are much smaller. Women working in the labor market delay the timing of maternity compared to non-participating women. Attending school has the same effect. Until the age of 28 the maternity hazard increases with age, after that it decreases.We benefited from comments on previous drafts by Siv Gustafsson, Joop Hartog, Peter Kee, Herriette Maassen van den Brink, Eddie Mekkelholt, Joop Odink, Hessel Oosterbeek, Hans van Ophem, Gusta Renes, Andre Voskamp, two anonymous referees, and the Managing Editor of this Journal. This paper is a revised version of a paper presented at the third annual meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, Paris, June 1989. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Catholicism and the Philippine population problem

"The Philippines has two characteristics which differentiate if from other countries in Southeast Asia. It is the only predominantly Christian country in the region and it has one of the highest rates of population growth. Non-Catholic Christians make up only about 9 per cent of the population compared with around 82 per cent for Roman Catholics. Given the Catholic Church objections to both contraception and abortion, it is not illogical to hypothesize a relation between the religious composition of the population and its rate of population growth."