Housing and children: simultaneous decisions?—a cohort study of young adults’ housing and family formation decision

This study contributes to earlier research on homeownership and childbearing by taking into account the potential simultaneity between these two life events. A dataset comprising three different Swedish birth cohorts suggests that these are events that are indeed simultaneous. Different tests indicate that taking this simultaneity into account gives an overall statistically significant improvement of the model fit. However, this result is most obvious for those young adults who faced increasing problems on the housing market. The childbearing decision of these cohorts also seems to be more sensitive to changes in the user cost.     

Unconditional government social cash transfer in Africa does not increase fertility

Among policymakers, a common perception surrounding the effects of cash transfer programmes, particularly unconditional programmes targeted to families with children, is that they induce increased fertility. We evaluate the Zambian Child Grant Programme, a government unconditional cash transfer targeted to families with a child under the age of 5 and examine impacts on fertility and household composition. The evaluation was a cluster randomized control trial, with data collected over 4 years from 2010 to 2014. Our results indicate that there are no programme impacts on overall fertility. Our results contribute to a small evidence base demonstrating that there are no unintended incentives related to fertility due to cash transfers.     

交错的历史：1950年代的中国农村妇女——《村庄视野中的阶级、性别与家庭结构：以1950年代湘北塘村为中心的考察》

李斌《村庄视野中的阶级、性别与家庭结构：以1950年代湘北塘村为中心的考察》一书,以湘北塘村为个案,通过大量的口述资料和地方文献,质疑和深化了前人关于妇女解放和男女平等的经典论述。不同于以往革命史叙事下以国家为主体的论述,作者紧紧围绕性别、家庭和阶级三个维度,从女性视角出发,展现了农村妇女在解放前、土地改革时期、农业合作化时期和“大跃进”运动时期中切实的出境和生命体验,揭示了不同时期男女平等与不平等、妇女解放与未解放的复杂性,因而也刷新了我们对1950年代中国农村妇女的认识。     

互联网环境下学术期刊防范学术不端行为技术研究

利用互联网环境，从技术的角度出发，对一稿多投、抄袭行为、剽窃行为以及捏造行为等学术不端行为的检测与防范进行研究，提出了各种操作上可行的方法。实践证明，运用这些方法，可有效地防范有学术不端行为的文章在学术期刊上发表。     

用工业CT技术测量储层岩芯饱和度分布

认识储层岩石中含油饱和度及饱和度分布,对驱替机理的深入研究是非常重要的。为了搞清储层岩石在驱替过程中的饱和度分布情况,应用工业CT技术,提出了一种储层含油岩芯被驱替后的饱和度分布的CT密度差测量方法。在岩样的同一断面,分别对干岩样、饱和岩样及在驱替后的岩样进行CT扫描,重建相应的断层图象,测量所建图象的灰度值,计算出相应的密度值,用密度差法计算出饱和度及其分布值。在γ射线工业CT机“CD-300BG”上对某油田岩样进行了实际测量,获得的结果说明,采用CT密度差法测量饱和度分布是有效的。该方法与常规驱替法相比较,具有快速、精度高、无损岩样和能模拟地层状态测量等特点,是油田开发、油藏描述和地层评价的一种新的有效方法。     

Can We Perceive Near Miss? An Empirical Study

Near misses are a special kind of reinforcement which increases one’s desire to play. The aim of this paper is to examine the perception of near misses in normal population. We used a slot machine simulation running on a PC, where participants had to play four rounds with different near miss ratios (0, 15, 30 and 45%). Our sample consisted of 159 individuals with mean age of 22.8 and with no or little gambling experience. For data analysis we used chi-squared goodness-of-fit test and exact binomial test. Despite the fact, that there was a notable effect of near misses results showed that the subjects could not perceive trials of them.     

Impact of physical activity and sedentary behaviour on fall risks in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

The objective of this work was to summarise and evaluate the evidence showing that physical activity is a protector factor as regards falls in older people. Relevant studies were identified through a systematic search in the MEDLINE and Cochrane Library, under the keywords of accidental fall/numerical data and risk factors, and with the bibliographies of retrieved papers. The combined odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval] for physical activity was 0.75 [0.64, 0.88] with moderate heterogeneity (I ²?=?33%). For fall injury, it was 0.59 [0.47, 0.74] and, for falls in general, it rose to 0.94 [0.76, 1.17] with nil heterogeneity. The combined OR for sedentary factors was 1.14 [1.10, 1.82] with moderate heterogeneity (I ²?=?36%). Regular physical activity in daily life yields significant reduction in falls in older people, especially falls with injuries.     

电子商务环境下消费者个人信息保护危机与应对——以新制度经济学为视角

电子商务环境中,经营者常利用其与消费者之间的非均衡博弈关系擅自处理后者的个人信息,这不但侵害了消费者的人格利益,而且阻碍了个人信息资源的高效配置。我国为促使经营者尊重消费者对个人信息的排他性产权,应强制经营者在处理个人信息前履行征得消费者许可等义务,进而改变这种不均衡状态。而立法者为了优化规制效果,宜立足于商业伦理与网络治理等因素构筑的特殊国情并重点借鉴欧盟的成例,凭借作为公共选择的立法活动将前述义务予以明确化。但刚性的法律规范又会不当限制经营者与消费者的决策自由,并阻碍个人信息的有效利用,对此,我国还需要参照美欧做法对经营者义务规则的适用设定例外情形。     

考虑异质性行为的灾后应急物资动态调度优化

在以人道主义为本的应急救援活动中，不可忽视被救灾民和施救决策者们异质性行为的影响。一方面，将各灾民因救援物资需求未被及时满足而呈现的差异化心理痛苦度量成经济损失，并纳入应急救援调度的社会成本这一决策目标中；另一方面，在灾后物资调度决策中，关注具有异质性偏好的各应急决策者所展现出的不同救援态度。结合面向联合机会约束规划的动态供需平衡限制，最终构建一个考虑灾民和决策者们异质性行为的多阶段灾后救援物资分配和应急路径优化模型。采用2008年汶川地震为案例背景，应用遗传算法对模型求解和参数分析，将仿真结果与不考虑异质性行为的传统救援调度方案进行比较，得出一些结论为构建高效的应急救援体系提供有益参考。