Introduction to the Special Issue

Qualitative Sociology -     

Predicting losses of residential structures in the state of Florida by the public hurricane loss evaluation model

As an environmental phenomenon, hurricanes cause significant property damage and loss of life in coastal areas almost every year. Although a number of commercial loss projection models have been developed to predict the property losses, only a handful of studies are available in the public domain to predict damage for hurricane prone areas. The state of Florida has developed an open, public model for the purpose of probabilistic assessment of risk to insured residential property associated with wind damage from hurricanes. The model comprises three components; viz. the atmospheric science component, the engineering component and the actuarial science component. The atmospheric component includes modeling the track and intensity life cycle of each simulated hurricane within the Florida threat area. Based on historical hurricane statistics, thousands of storms are simulated allowing determination of the wind risk for all residential Zip Code locations in Florida. The wind risk information is then provided to the engineering and actuarial components to model damage and average annual loss, respectively. The actuarial team finds the county-wise loss and the total loss for the entire state of Florida. The computer team then compiles all information from atmospheric science, engineering and actuarial components, processes all hurricane related data and completes the project. The model was submitted to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology for approval and went through a rigorous review and was revised as per the suggestions of the commission. The final model was approved for use by the insurance companies in Florida by the commission. At every stage of the process, statistical procedures were used to model various parameters and validate the model. This paper presents a brief summary of the main components of the model (meteorology, vulnerability and actuarial) and then focuses on the statistical validation of the same.     

Authors’ responses to the discussion on “Predicting losses of residential structures in the state of Florida by the Public Hurricane Loss Evaluation Model”

Hurricanes threaten the Florida coast line every year and are capable of causing catastrophic losses. The Public Hurricane Loss Model was developed in response to the need for having an open transparent model to predict the above losses. The results were summarized in the paper “Predicting Losses of Residential Structures in the State of Florida by the Public Hurricane Loss Model” which was subsequently a subject of discussion by experts in Meteorology, Engineering, Actuarial Sciences and Statistics. The present paper presents a response to the discussions on the above mentioned article.     

‘Let’s hope the Boston Marathon Bomber is a White American’: racialising Muslims and the politics of white identity

This paper examines public discourse on race, whiteness and Muslims through an in-depth exploration of an online media controversy following the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings. On 16 April, the day after the attacks, the liberal magazine Salon.com published David Sirota’s article, ‘Let’s Hope the Boston Marathon Bomber is a White American’. A firestorm of commentary followed, with conservatives defending the profiling of Muslims, and accusing Sirota of anti-white racism. Anchored in questions of race, racism and Muslims and marked by a sharp partisan polarisation, these discussions intensified after 18 April, when the Tsarnaev brothers were identified as the perpetrators. The ensuing debate surrounding the racial identity of the Tsarnaevs displays how Muslim racialisation occurs and operates within a conservative discourse strongly committed to a colour-blind ideology. Our paper moves beyond this affirmation of literature on Muslim racialisation and sets this process within a relationally constructed and performative white racial identity.     

Distributions of the product and ratio of Maxwell and Rayleigh random variables

The distributions of the product and ratio of independent random variables arise in many applied problems. These have been extensively studied by many researchers. In this paper, the distributions of the product | XY | and ratio have been derived, when X and Y are Maxwell and Rayleigh random variables and are distributed independently of each other. The associated cdfs, pdfs, kth moments, entropies, etc., have been given. To describe the possible shapes of the associated pdfs and entropies, the respective plots are provided. The percentage points associated with the cdfs of the product and ratio have been tabulated.     

Performance of some new preliminary test ridge regression estimators and their properties

The problem of estimation of the regression coefficients in a multiple regression model is considered under multicollinearity situation when it is suspected that the regression coefficients may be restricted to a subspace. We present the estimators of the regression coefficients combining the idea of preliminary test and ridge regression methodology. Accordingly, we consider three estimators, namely, the unrestricted ridge regression estimator (URRE), the restricted ridge regression estimator (RRRE), and finally, the preliminary test ridge regression estimator (PTRRE). The biases, variancematrices and mean square errors (mse) of the estimators are derived and compared with the usual estimators. Regions of optimality of the estimators are determined by studying the mse criterion. The conditions of superiority of the estimators over the traditional estimators as in Saleh and Han (1990) and Ali and Saleh (1991) have also been discussed.     

On preliminary test ridge regression estimators for linear restrictions in a regression model with non-normal disturbances

In this paper, we study the properties of the preliminary test, restricted and unrestricted ridge regression estimators of the linear regression model with non-normal disturbances. We present the estimators of the regression coefficients combining the idea of preliminary test and ridge regression methodology, when it is suspected that the regression coefficients may be restricted to a subspace and the regression error is distributed as multivariate t. Accordingly we consider three estimators, namely the Unrestricted Ridge Regression Estimator (URRRE), the Restricted Ridge Regression Estimator (RRRE) and finally the Preliminary test Ridge Regression Estimator (PTRRE). The biases and the mean square error (MSE) of the estimators are derived under the null and alternative hypotheses and compared with the usual estimators. By studying the MSE criterion, the regions of optimahty of the estimators are determined.     

The prediction distribution for the heteroscedastic multivariate lineary models

The heceroscedastic multivariate linear model with multivariate normal error distribution has been considered, using the structural relation of the model, the prediction distribution of future responses of the model has been derived. it is observed that for known covariance parameters the prediction distribution of the model has a product of m multivariate Student t distribution. It is to be noted that the prediction distribution for the Student t error also has a product of m multivariate Student t distribution. Some special cases have been discussed.