Post–Functional Social Systems Analysis*

This paper attempts to develop a macro social systems model devoid of the many problems which plagued functionalism. I eschew concepts such as equilibrium, survival, and functional prerequisite. Instead of societal survival I utilize the more general notion of level of living (L) and attempt to derive macro correlates of L. These are the society's population size, spatial area, organization, technology, and information level. Interrelationships among the variables are analyzed, as are aggregated and distributional measures of the variables. Compared to prior formulations this framework is relatively comprehensive, facilitates the analysis of variable primacy, incorporates both ideational and materialistic components, and provides a macro context for the analysis of individual action.     

Simultaneous modelling of multiple traffic safety performance indicators by using a multivariate generalized linear mixed model

Summary.  Traffic safety in the UK is one of the increasing number of areas where central government sets targets based on 'outcome-focused' performance indicators (PIs). Judgments about such PIs are often based solely on rankings of raw indicators and simple league tables dominate centrally published analyses. There is a considerable statistical literature examining health and education issues which has tended to use the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to address variability in the data when drawing inferences about relative performance from headline PIs. This methodology could obviously be applied in contexts such as traffic safety. However, when such models are applied to the fairly crude data sets that are currently available, the interval estimates generated, e.g. in respect of rankings, are often too broad to allow much real differentiation between the traffic safety performance of the units that are being considered. Such results sit uncomfortably with the ethos of 'performance management' and raise the question of whether the inference from such data sets about relative performance can be improved in some way. Motivated by consideration of a set of nine road safety performance indicators measured on English local authorities in the year 2000, the paper considers methods to strengthen the weak inference that is obtained from GLMMs of individual indicators by simultaneous, multivariate modelling of a range of related indicators. The correlation structure between indicators is used to reduce the uncertainty that is associated with rankings of any one of the individual indicators. The results demonstrate that credible intervals can be substantially narrowed by the use of the multivariate GLMM approach and that multivariate modelling of multiple PIs may therefore have considerable potential for introducing more robust and realistic assessments of differential performance in some contexts.     

Metropole and Colony: Irish Networks and Patronage in the Eighteenth-Century Empire

This study examines how social networks helped to overcome problems of physical distance in the British Empire during the eighteenth century. In particular, it explores the relationships between ethnicity, patronage and place by focusing on a group of Irish professionals. By piecing together connections between lawyers, merchants and medical doctors in various places including Ireland, London, Jamaica and Senegambia, this essay suggests that Irish networks were flexible enough to allow for dialogue, disagreement and change, but were also durable enough to transcend time and space. These qualities were crucial for sustaining the obligations of patronage that characterised the ‘Old Society’ of eighteenth-century Britain and generated the means to overcome some practical problems of imperialism.     

The impact of real wage and mortality fluctuations on fertility and nuptiality in precensus England

This paper explores the responses of fertility and nuptiality to fluctuations in real wages and mortality that can be inferred from annual series of English historical data over the period 1542 to 1800. The paper begins with a review of the time series properties of the data and summarizes the long-term equilibrium relationships identified in previous work. A Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) is then proposed to study the observed short-term fluctuations in a way that is compatible with long-term equilibria. Following estimation of the parameters of the VECM, an investigation is made of the impact of shocks to real wages and mortality on demographic variables as measured by generalized impulse responses and persistence profiles. Received: 24 September 1997 / Accepted: 12 December 1997     

Trends in author characteristics and diversity issues in the Journal of Marital and Family Therapy from 1990 to 2000

In this article, we present an analysis and comparison of published articles in the Journal of Marital and Family Therapy (JMFT) between 1990-1995 and 1996-2000. This study focused on trends in author gender, highest degree, and professional affiliation, and article content on issues of cultural and family diversity (race/ethnicity, class, religion/spirituality, gender, sexual orientation, and varied family forms). Key findings show a significant shift from 69% male first authors in 1990-1995 to equal gender representation in authorship for 1996-2000 articles, with a particular increase in female PhDs. Articles addressing diversity issues doubled from 15.6% of all 1990-1995 articles to 31% in 1996-2000. Of note, women authored 73% of the 1996-2000 articles on the wide range of diversity issues. Implications for the field are discussed.     

Constructing Monothetic and Polythetic Typologies By the Heuristic Method*

Past students of heuristic types such as the ideal or constructed types have often proposed that empirical cases be studied by comparison with the heuristic type. However, they have provided no specific guidelines for such comparison, and critics have deemed the operation unfruitful. Such guidelines are provided here, based on the monothetic-polythetic distinction. Each empirical case is initially assigned to a monothetic type, then later a decision can be made about whether to collapse to polytheticism. Both general and specific guidelines for delimiting types are provided. A distinction is made between theoretical and mechanical methods of type construction, and examples are provided. Methods of choosing variables for a typology are also discussed.