Long memory and changepoint models: a spectral classification procedure

Time series within fields such as finance and economics are often modelled using long memory processes. Alternative studies on the same data can suggest that series may actually contain a ‘changepoint’ (a point within the time series where the data generating process has changed). These models have been shown to have elements of similarity, such as within their spectrum. Without prior knowledge this leads to an ambiguity between these two models, meaning it is difficult to assess which model is most appropriate. We demonstrate that considering this problem in a time-varying environment using the time-varying spectrum removes this ambiguity. Using the wavelet spectrum, we then use a classification approach to determine the most appropriate model (long memory or changepoint). Simulation results are presented across a number of models followed by an application to stock cross-correlations and US inflation. The results indicate that the proposed classification outperforms an existing hypothesis testing approach on a number of models and performs comparatively across others.     

福建绿色食品发展的现状与对策

阐述了绿色食品的内涵以及发展绿色食品的重大意义。在分析了福建省绿色食品的发展现状和存在问题的基础上 ,提出发展福建省绿色食品的对策 :(1)制定绿色食品发展规划 ,明确发展方向与重点 ;(2 )优化产业结构 ,扩大总量规模 ;(3 )制定优惠政策 ,增加资金投入 ;(4 )加强过程控制 ,实行“绿色管理”;(5 )开展科技攻关 ,增强发展后劲 ;(6)加大宣传力度 ,积极开拓市场     

开发人力资源 促进社会经济发展

人力资源开发是实施现代化建设可持续发展战略的关键。正确认识人力资源开发对社会经济可持续发展的重要性 ,对我国社会经济发展总目标的实现以及经济增长方式的根本转变 ,均具有十分重要的现实意义     

山东省农村文化建设调查与文化发展模式研究

农村文化建设与农村社会进步关系密切。本文对山东省农村文化建设状况进行调查、分析和对策研究 ;并对农村文化建设与发展模式进行理论和实际的探索 ,提出了农村文化建设的系统化、传统化、现代化、国际化、层序化、生态化等发展模式     

The Varieties of Religious Significance: An Idiographic Approach to Study Religion's Role in Adolescent Development

We present a rationale and method for taking an idiographic approach to study the role religion plays in adolescent development. We theorize that adolescents harness qualitatively different aspects of religion to address idiosyncratic developmental needs. Therefore, analyzing religion's role in adolescent development necessitates a case‐by‐case holistic analysis. We introduce a systematic method using narratives to identify the personal ways that individuals attribute meaning in general and regarding religion in particular. We present three detailed case studies from a sample of 20 religious Israeli Jewish Orthodox emerging‐adult women who provided retrospective narrative accounts of their general and religious development through adolescence. Systematic analysis reveals that religion was significant to these women in diverse and personal ways, addressing markedly different adolescent developmental needs.     

Representations of homelessness,home environments,and authority in the context of runaway behaviors reported by foster care youth residing in an emergency shelter

Between 31 and 46% of youth with histories of foster care placement were homeless at least once. Studies of the incidence of runaway behavior have identified a host of risk factors associated with running away from foster care placement, but less is known about the internalized processes of these individuals at risk for running away or the contextual experience surrounding it. This study is designed to investigate the representations made by individuals who have engaged in running away to uncover and explore thematic patterns. Accordingly, a secondary analysis was performed on data from four group interviews (n?=?15) collected from youth under the care of one child protective services (CPS) agency-operated emergency shelter setting, using thematic content analysis by two independent reviewers. Codes were networked and themes that emerged were discussed through a framework of power dynamics. Themes around the participants’ perceptions of homelessness, lack of control, and their resistance to authority were all identified as contributory to the theme of running away. The act of running away is, therefore, framed as a threshold event representing a multifaceted phenomenon combining perceptions of self-identity, conflict, and power in the home.     

Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel

Various foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) virus strains circulate in the Middle East, causing frequent episodes of FMD outbreaks among Israeli livestock. Since the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. As a non‐FMD‐free country with vaccination, Israel is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of FMD virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for FMD‐free countries considering purchasing Israeli bull semen. A stochastic risk assessment model was used to estimate this risk, defined as the annual likelihood of exporting at least one ejaculate of bull semen contaminated with viable FMD virus. A total of 45 scenarios were assessed to account for uncertainty and variability around specific parameter estimates and to evaluate the effect of various mitigation measures, such as performing a preexport test on semen ejaculates. Under the most plausible scenario, the annual likelihood of exporting bull semen contaminated with FMD virus had a median of 1.3 * 10^?7 for an export of 100 ejaculates per year. This corresponds to one infected ejaculate exported every 7 million years. Under the worst‐case scenario, the median of the risk rose to 7.9 * 10^?5, which is equivalent to the export of one infected ejaculate every 12,000 years. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter is the probability of viral excretion in infected bulls.     

The Affordable Care Act,Dependent Health Insurance Coverage,and Young Adults' Health

This study examines the consequences of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) dependent coverage provision for the health of U.S. young adults aged\–25. Using data from the Current Population Survey—March Supplement for the years 2007–2012 and ordered logistic regression analyses, we examine self‐rated health and its association with dependent health insurance coverage for 19‐ to 25‐year‐olds and a comparison group of 28‐ to 34‐year‐olds before and after implementation of the ACA. Compared to 28‐ to 34‐year‐olds, results indicate the post‐ACA period (2010–2011) is associated with increased access to dependent health insurance coverage and improved health for young adults aged 19–25 relative to the period before implementation (2008–2009). More than half of the difference in health improvement across age groups can be attributed to changes in dependent coverage. These results are the first to demonstrate a positive health benefit resulting from the implementation of the ACA.     

The ‘Building Blocks’ of Professional Identity among Social Work Graduates

Based on systems theory, the current study aimed to examine the relationships between the following sets of variables: input variables—satisfaction with supervision, self-differentiation, and sense of coherence; throughput variables—values and empathy; and the output variable—professional identity of BSW students. Questionnaires were completed by 160 social work students who were about to graduate the social work program. Path analysis (The AMOS 5 program) was used to analyze the research model. Satisfaction with supervision was the only input variable that was directly related to professional identity. Of the throughput variables, empathy and personal values were directly related to professional identity, whereas sense of coherence was indirectly related to empathic concern, with social values as a mediator. Practical recommendations are discussed.