Doing Our Best: Optimization and the Management of Risk

Tools and concepts of optimization are widespread in decision‐making, design, and planning. There is a moral imperative to “do our best.” Optimization underlies theories in physics and biology, and economic theories often presume that economic agents are optimizers. We argue that in decisions under uncertainty, what should be optimized is robustness rather than performance. We discuss the equity premium puzzle from financial economics, and explain that the puzzle can be resolved by using the strategy of satisficing rather than optimizing. We discuss design of critical technological infrastructure, showing that satisficing of performance requirements—rather than optimizing them—is a preferable design concept. We explore the need for disaster recovery capability and its methodological dilemma. The disparate domains—economics and engineering—illuminate different aspects of the challenge of uncertainty and of the significance of robust‐satisficing.     

Reconciling Uncertain Costs and Benefits in Bayes Nets for Invasive Species Management

Bayes nets are used increasingly to characterize environmental systems and formalize probabilistic reasoning to support decision making. These networks treat probabilities as exact quantities. Sensitivity analysis can be used to evaluate the importance of assumptions and parameter estimates. Here, we outline an application of info‐gap theory to Bayes nets that evaluates the sensitivity of decisions to possibly large errors in the underlying probability estimates and utilities. We apply it to an example of management and eradication of Red Imported Fire Ants in Southern Queensland, Australia and show how changes in management decisions can be justified when uncertainty is considered.     

Local cross‐sector partnerships

We focus in this article on the challenges local governmental (municipal) and third‐sector (nonprofit) organizations face when they seek to work collaboratively or in partnership. We build on the findings of an action research project to draw out the practical implications of cross‐sector working for the organizations involved. We describe jointly agreed suggestions for tackling the challenges that emerged when third‐sector organizations and local governmental agencies themselves worked collaboratively in a search for mutually acceptable solutions. Finally, we draw out learning points on cross‐sector working for practitioners, policymakers, and researchers.     

Validation of the Beliefs Against Volunteering Scale among Chinese Adolescents in Hong Kong

Participation in volunteer service is an indicator of quality of life. This study attempts to validate the Beliefs Against Volunteering Scale (BAV), an assessment of the negative beliefs about volunteerism among Chinese adolescents in Hong Kong. The BAV was administered to 5,946 Chinese adolescents. The BAV and its subscales were found to be internally consistent. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed two factors (i.e., “conceptual bias” and “instrumental bias”) against volunteering. This supports the factorial validity of the test. The BAV scores showed a differentiation of volunteers versus non-volunteers, thus supporting the criterion-related validity of the test. The negative correlations between BAV and (1) measures of positive beliefs about volunteering; and (2) purpose in life demonstrated the construct validity of BAV. The findings suggest that BAV is a reliable and valid instrument in assessing underlying negative beliefs about volunteerism among Chinese adolescents.     

Immanent and Interventionist Inland Asian Aquaculture Development and its Outcomes

Aquaculture is equated with the reduction of poverty by intergovernmental agencies such as the FAO, which advocate the promotion of small‐scale aquaculture through project‐based interventions. There is a lack of convincing empirical evidence to support the efficacy of this type of intervention, however. Meanwhile, commercial cultured freshwater fish production has increased hugely throughout Asia, despite limited direct donor or government support. Its impact with respect to poverty also remains ambiguous, however. This article critically evaluates the developmental impacts of both immanent and interventionist forms of aquaculture and advances finely nuanced interpretations of both.     

Testing NLCLiP: Validation of Estimates of Rates of Non-problematic and Problematic Gambling in a Sample of British Schoolchildren

This paper reports on the results of applying a short screen for problem gambling, called NLCLiP, to a national sample of 8,958 British schoolchildren under the age of 16. It shows that, in its current form, NLCLiP can, with reasonable accuracy, be employed to estimate the rate of prevalence of problematic and non-problematic (i.e. gambling which does not lead to significant endorsement of DSM-IV-MR-J criteria) in a general population of children. However, NLCLiP does not reliably discriminate between problem and at risk gamblers. Moreover, it does not provide a reliable basis to identify cases of problem gambling. The main conclusion reached is that NLCLiP is a potentially useful tool for regulators to assess changes in the prevalence of problematic and non-problematic gambling among children over time.     

Disciplinary schisms: Subspecialty “drift” and the fragmentation of sociology

One component of the often discussed malaise in sociology has been the problem of subspecialty “drift” — applied specialties given birth originally within the field now forming separate departments or programs. The historical and ideological origins of this problem are discussed, focusing primarily on the schism early on in sociology between pure and applied work. Anecdotal evidence presented from interviews with faculty in social work and criminal justice programs suggests sociology has in many cases facilitated development of new programs. In order to evaluate the relative position of applied programs within departments of sociology, a comparative analysis of the 1986 and 1996 Guide to Graduate Departments of Sociology “special program” and department titles is undertaken. Contrary to the perception that applied programs are leaving sociology, results indicate an overall increase in special programs with an applied or practice component. Furthermore, masters programs are significantly more likely to have changed department names and to be in combined departments than doctoral programs. We suggest that while sociology has lost ground in the applied arena to more practice and policy-oriented disciplines, program changes within departments in the past decade may help to stem further subspecialty drift. The article concludes by suggesting that state sociological associations are particularly well suited to play a leadership role in addressing these issues. Dr. Bennett M. Judkins is currently doing research on community change and multiculturalism. Address correspondence to: Department of Sociology, Lenoir-Rhyne College, Hickory, NC 28601. Dr. Carl M. Hand is currently doing research on changes in undergraduate and graduate enrollments in sociology. Address correspondence to: Department of Sociology, Anthropology and Criminal Justice, Valdosta State University, Valdosta, GA 31698.     

AutoCAD应用中常见问题及解决方法

AutoCAD是目前国内外使用最多的计算机辅助设计软件之一,该软件具有功能强大、用户界面友好、操作简捷等特点。文中就AutoCAD在使用过程中经常遇到的一些问题进行了分析,并提出了相应的解决方法。     

Is There a “Pessimistic” Bias in Individual Beliefs? Evidence from a Simple Survey

It is an important issue for economic and finance applications to determine whether individuals exhibit a behavioral bias toward pessimism in their beliefs, in a lottery or more generally in an investment opportunities framework. In this paper, we analyze the answers of a sample of 1,540 individuals to the following question “Imagine that a coin will be flipped 10 times. Each time, if heads, you win $10\texttt{C}\!\!\!\rule[2.3pt]{.4em}{.3pt}\!\!\rule[3.3pt]{.4em}{.3pt}It is an important issue for economic and finance applications to determine whether individuals exhibit a behavioral bias toward pessimism in their beliefs, in a lottery or more generally in an investment opportunities framework. In this paper, we analyze the answers of a sample of 1,540 individuals to the following question “Imagine that a coin will be flipped 10 times. Each time, if heads, you win . How many times do you think that you will win?” The average answer is surprisingly about 3.9 which is below the average 5, and we interpret this as a pessimistic bias. We find that women are more “pessimistic” than men, as are old people relative to young. We also analyze how our notion of pessimism is related to more general notions of pessimism previously introduced in psychology.     

Premarital sexual experience: A longitudinal study∗

The relative importance of women's sex‐role orientation and their observation of maternal sexual affection in predicting college women's attitudes toward 18 sexual behaviors were examined in this investigation. A sample of 122 single female college students from intact families was administered three questionnaires: the Attitudes Toward Women Scale, the Mother's Expression of Affection Scale, and the Sexual Attitude Questionnaire. Stepwise regression analysis was used to determine the relative contribution of sex‐role orientation and maternal expression of affection to attitudes toward each of the sexual behaviors. Findings revealed that sex‐role orientation was a significant predictor of attitudes toward 14 of the 18 specific items. More egalitarian views of women were associated with more positive attitudes toward engaging in a variety of sexual behaviors and taking steps to ensure one's own contraceptive security. Mother's expression of sexual affection toward her spouse was a significant predictor of only two behavioral items. Greater exposure to an affectionate mother was associated with more positive attitudes toward speaking affectionately to men and behaving assertively in a sexual relationship. Implications of the findings for family practitioners are discussed.