Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel

Various foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) virus strains circulate in the Middle East, causing frequent episodes of FMD outbreaks among Israeli livestock. Since the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. As a non‐FMD‐free country with vaccination, Israel is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of FMD virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for FMD‐free countries considering purchasing Israeli bull semen. A stochastic risk assessment model was used to estimate this risk, defined as the annual likelihood of exporting at least one ejaculate of bull semen contaminated with viable FMD virus. A total of 45 scenarios were assessed to account for uncertainty and variability around specific parameter estimates and to evaluate the effect of various mitigation measures, such as performing a preexport test on semen ejaculates. Under the most plausible scenario, the annual likelihood of exporting bull semen contaminated with FMD virus had a median of 1.3 * 10^?7 for an export of 100 ejaculates per year. This corresponds to one infected ejaculate exported every 7 million years. Under the worst‐case scenario, the median of the risk rose to 7.9 * 10^?5, which is equivalent to the export of one infected ejaculate every 12,000 years. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter is the probability of viral excretion in infected bulls.     

THE OPTIMAL TAXATION OF ASSET INCOME WHEN GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION IS ENDOGENOUS: THEORY,ESTIMATION AND WELFARE

This paper derives the Ramsey optimal fiscal policy for taxing asset income in a model where government expenditure is a function of net output or the inputs that produce it. Extending work by Kenneth L. Judd, I demonstrate that the canonical result that the optimal tax on capital income is zero in the medium to long term is a special case of a more general model. Employing a vector error correction model to estimate the relationship between government consumption and net output or the factor inputs that generate it for the United States between 1948Q1 and 2015Q4, I demonstrate that this special case is empirically implausible, and show how a cointegrating vector can be used to determine the optimal tax schedule. I simulate a version of the model using the empirical estimates to measure the welfare implications of changing the tax rate on asset income, and contrast these results with those generated in a version of the model where government consumption is purely exogenous. The shifting pattern of welfare measurements confirms the theoretical results. I calculate that the prevailing effective tax rate on net asset income in the United States between 1970 and 2014 averaged 0.449. Hence abolishing the tax completely does generate welfare improvements, though only by the equivalent of between 1.103% and 1.616% permanent increase in consumption—well under half the implied welfare benefit when the endogeneity of the government consumption is ignored. The maximum welfare improvement from shifting part of the burden of tax from capital to labor is the equivalent of a permanent increase in consumption of between only 1.491% and 1.858%, and is attained when the tax rate on asset income is lowered to between 0.148 and 0.186. Allowing the tax rate to vary over time raises the maximum welfare benefit to 1.865%. All the results are very robust to a wide range of elasticities of labor supply. (JEL E62, H21, H50)     

Representations of homelessness,home environments,and authority in the context of runaway behaviors reported by foster care youth residing in an emergency shelter

Between 31 and 46% of youth with histories of foster care placement were homeless at least once. Studies of the incidence of runaway behavior have identified a host of risk factors associated with running away from foster care placement, but less is known about the internalized processes of these individuals at risk for running away or the contextual experience surrounding it. This study is designed to investigate the representations made by individuals who have engaged in running away to uncover and explore thematic patterns. Accordingly, a secondary analysis was performed on data from four group interviews (n?=?15) collected from youth under the care of one child protective services (CPS) agency-operated emergency shelter setting, using thematic content analysis by two independent reviewers. Codes were networked and themes that emerged were discussed through a framework of power dynamics. Themes around the participants’ perceptions of homelessness, lack of control, and their resistance to authority were all identified as contributory to the theme of running away. The act of running away is, therefore, framed as a threshold event representing a multifaceted phenomenon combining perceptions of self-identity, conflict, and power in the home.     

The Sierra Club Immigration Debate: National Implications

U.S. population doubled during the past 50 years with nary a notice by anyone, why expect anything different during the next doubling? The relationship between U.S. population size and environment suddenly became newsworthy for six months in 1997–98, thanks to a bruising battle within the Sierra Club. Whether or not you are a Sierra Club member, please consider becoming involved in a rare opportunity to publicize connections between U.S. population growth and the state of the environment.     

转轨过程中我国公司治理模式的建立

本文首先指出企业是一个契约的结合体 ,这种契约是不完备的。因此 ,所有权是重要的 ,在公司治理中明晰的所有权是前提。随后 ,分析了美国公司规模大、股权分散 ,其公司治理结构主要靠外部治理来完成 ;相应地 ,德国由于公司资本主要来源于金融公司和创业家族等 ,股权集中度高 ,其公司治理主要由内部治理来完成。最后 ,作者提出了转轨时期我国公司治理走分类治理、共同治理、内外治理相结合的多元化的道路。     

后常规科学视野下转基因技术决策与协商式公民参与

后常规科学使得传统的科技决策模式面临挑战,转基因技术的争议证明了"政府—科学家"的常规决策模式不能解决科技决策中风险不确定性、价值争议性和多元合法性等问题,需要"扩展的对等共同体"参与科技决策新模式。风险社会中民主治理和科技公民身份对后常规科学视野下公民参与科技决策进行了理论解读。协商民主的理论和经验证据表明,在后常规科学时代,协商式公民参与科技决策是一种有效的途径。     

CEO如何成为危机公关榜样?

通用汽车公司因点火开关故障而深陷危局。但这家汽车巨头的女CEO玛丽·巴拉在危机中勇于承担的表现收获了很多赞誉,她的人气不降反升,堪称危机公关的正面榜样。     

The Affordable Care Act,Dependent Health Insurance Coverage,and Young Adults' Health

This study examines the consequences of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) dependent coverage provision for the health of U.S. young adults aged\–25. Using data from the Current Population Survey—March Supplement for the years 2007–2012 and ordered logistic regression analyses, we examine self‐rated health and its association with dependent health insurance coverage for 19‐ to 25‐year‐olds and a comparison group of 28‐ to 34‐year‐olds before and after implementation of the ACA. Compared to 28‐ to 34‐year‐olds, results indicate the post‐ACA period (2010–2011) is associated with increased access to dependent health insurance coverage and improved health for young adults aged 19–25 relative to the period before implementation (2008–2009). More than half of the difference in health improvement across age groups can be attributed to changes in dependent coverage. These results are the first to demonstrate a positive health benefit resulting from the implementation of the ACA.     

The ‘Building Blocks’ of Professional Identity among Social Work Graduates

Based on systems theory, the current study aimed to examine the relationships between the following sets of variables: input variables—satisfaction with supervision, self-differentiation, and sense of coherence; throughput variables—values and empathy; and the output variable—professional identity of BSW students. Questionnaires were completed by 160 social work students who were about to graduate the social work program. Path analysis (The AMOS 5 program) was used to analyze the research model. Satisfaction with supervision was the only input variable that was directly related to professional identity. Of the throughput variables, empathy and personal values were directly related to professional identity, whereas sense of coherence was indirectly related to empathic concern, with social values as a mediator. Practical recommendations are discussed.     

Couple Counselling Outcomes in an Australian Not for Profit: Evidence for the Effectiveness of Couple Counselling Conducted Within Routine Practice

Over 30 randomised controlled trials have shown the efficacy of couple therapy under controlled conditions. However only four studies explore effectiveness of couple therapy as commonly practised in the community (i.e., routine practice). These studies suggest effectiveness is about half that reported in randomised controlled trials. Further, there are no published couple therapy effectiveness data currently from Australia or New Zealand. This is troubling because (1) couple distress has negative effects on individual adults, couples, and families; (2) funders increasingly want proof of return on financial investment; and (3) clients want hope that their emotional investment in therapy is worthwhile. The first aim of this paper is to report the outcomes of a milestone multi‐centre study of over 1,500 Relationships Australia clients attending couple counselling. It outlines a simple, intuitive method for assessing effectiveness of couple counselling in routine practice that may motivate others to conduct effectiveness studies. The study used a cross‐sectional design and assessed current couple satisfaction and retrospective recall of couple satisfaction before attending counselling. Results revealed a moderate effect size improvement in relationship satisfaction. The results support previous published studies of couple therapy effectiveness in routine practice. The second aim of the paper is to increase interest in others doing similar research by addressing key barriers to the implementation of effectiveness studies within routine practice. These barriers include administrative burden, integration across services, and conceptual buy‐in by practitioners. The use of the retrospective measure of ‘pre counselling’ couple satisfaction measure overcomes these barriers in part. The paper concludes with a discussion of design limitations and suggestions for counselling agencies seeking to conduct their own effectiveness studies.