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Ilia?TsetlinEmail author Michel?Regenwetter Bernard?Grofman 《Social Choice and Welfare》2003,21(3):387-398
Many papers have studied the probability of majority cycles, also called the Condorcet paradox, using the impartial culture or related distributional assumptions. While it is widely acknowledged that the impartial culture is unrealistic, conclusions drawn from the impartial culture are nevertheless still widely advertised and reproduced in textbooks. We demonstrate that the impartial culture is the worst case scenario among a very broad range of possible voter preference distributions. More specifically, any deviation from the impartial culture over linear orders reduces the probability of majority cycles in infinite samples unless the culture from which we sample is itself inherently intransitive. We prove this statement for the case of three candidates and we provide arguments for the conjecture that it extends to any number of candidates.All three authors thank the Fuqua School of Business for supporting their research collaboration. Regenwetter and Grofman gratefully acknowledge the precious support of the National Science Foundation through grant #SBR-9730076 on Probabilistic Models of Social Choice (Methodology, Measurement and Statistics program). We are grateful to the referees and we thank Saa Peke for critical comments on an earlier draft. Grofman thanks Scott L. Feld for numerous reminders about the implausibility of the impartial culture assumption which helped lead to this paper. 相似文献
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Mark R. Segal Bernard Rosner Albert G.S. Liou Jan P. Schouten 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》1993,35(1):103-118
Longitudinal data analysis in epidemiological settings is complicated by large multiplicities of short time series and the occurrence of missing observations. To handle such difficulties Rosner & Muñoz (1988) developed a weighted non-linear least squares algorithm for estimating parameters for first-order autoregressive (AR1) processes with time-varying covariates. This method proved efficient when compared to complete case procedures. Here that work is extended by (1) introducing a different estimation procedure based on the EM algorithm, and (2) formulating estimation techniques for second-order autoregressive models. The second development is important because some of the intended areas of application (adult pulmonary function decline, childhood blood pressure) have autocorrelation functions which decay more slowly than the geometric rate imposed by an AR1 model. Simulation studies are used to compare the three methodologies (non-linear, EM based and complete case) with respect to bias, efficiency and coverage both in the presence and in the absence of time-varying covariates. Differing degrees and mechanisms of missingness are examined. Preliminary results indicate the non-linear approach to be the method of choice: it has high efficiency and is easily implemented. An illustrative example concerning pulmonary function decline in the Netherlands is analyzed using this method. 相似文献
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Risk analysis has been recognized and validated in World Trade Organization (WTO) decision processes. In recent years the precautionary principle has been proposed as an additional or alternative approach to standard risk assessment. The precautionary principle has also been advocated by some who see it as part of postmodern democracy in which more power is given to the public on health and safety matters relative to the judgments of technocrats. A more cynical view is that the precautionary principle is particularly championed by the European Community as a means to erect trade barriers. The WTO ruling against the European Community's trade barrier against beef from hormone-treated cattle seemed to support the use of risk assessment and appeared to reject the argument that the precautionary principle was a legitimate basis for trade barriers. However, a more recent WTO decision on asbestos contains language suggesting that the precautionary principle, in the form of taking into account public perception, may be acceptable as a basis for a trade barrier. This decision, if followed in future WTO trade disputes, such as for genetically modified foods, raises many issues central to the field of risk analysis. It is too early to tell whether the precautionary principle will become accepted in WTO decisions, either as a supplement or a substitute for standard risk assessment. But it would undermine the value of the precautionary principle if this principle were misused to justify unwarranted trade barriers. 相似文献
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Bernard Farber 《The Sociological quarterly》1982,23(4):427-454
This paper describes a procedure for facilitating the generation of theory useful to family sociologists. This procedure is based upon a linguistic model, and it utilizes the metaphor of literary genre as a guide. A distinction is made between the construction and the generation of sociological theory. The suggestion is made that the generation perspective may enhance the ability of theorists to find subtle interconnections among phenomena and thereby to extend fields of sociological knowledge along novel paths. The procedure itself depends first upon the construction of a binary lexicon. One such lexicon consists of one matrix of concepts describing social structure from the perspective of stabilization of social relations and a complementary matrix describing structure from the perspective of destabilization. From these matrices, one concept is chosen as a metonym or as a metaphor to act as a basis for deriving connections among the other concepts in the matrices. The manipulation of concepts from both matrices permits the development of propositions suggesting ironies and contradictions in social relations. Examples of the use of this procedure are presented, and some unresolved problems are described. 相似文献