A small sample confidence interval for autoregressive parameters

This paper is concerned with interval estimation of an autoregressive parameter when the parameter space allows for magnitudes outside the unit interval. In this case, intervals based on the least-squares estimator tend to require a high level of numerical computation and can be unreliable for small sample sizes. Intervals based on the asymptotic distribution of instrumental variable estimators provide an alternative. If the instrument is taken to be the sign function, the interval is centered at the Cauchy estimator and a large sample interval can be created by estimating the standard error of this estimator. The interval proposed in this paper avoids estimating this standard error and results in a small sample improvement in coverage probability. In fact, small sample coverage is exact when the innovations come from a normal distribution.     

Re‐thinking Disability,Work and Welfare

There is a wealth of evidence that disabled people experience far higher levels of unemployment and underemployment than non‐disabled peers. Yet hitherto sociologists have paid scant attention to the structural causes of this issue. Drawing on a socio/political or social model of disability perspective this paper argues for a reconfiguration of the meaning of disability and work in order to address this problem. It is also suggested that such a strategy will make a significant contribution to the struggle for a fairer and equitable global society.     

The Contribution of Social Movement Theory to Understanding Terrorism

The study of terrorism and political violence has been characterized by a lack of generalizable theory and methodology. This essay proposes that social movement theory can contribute a necessary conceptual framework for understanding terrorism and thus reviews the relevant literature and discusses possible applications. Terrorism is a form of contentious politics, analyzable with the basic social movement approach of mobilizing resources, political opportunity structure, and framing. Cultural perspectives call attention to issues of collective identity that allow for sustained militancy, and movement research recommends alternative conceptions of terrorist networks. Previous research on movement radicalization, repression, and cycles of contention has direct bearing on militancy. Emerging perspectives on transnational collective action and the diffusion of tactics and issues informs an understanding of contemporary international terrorism. Research on movement outcomes suggests broader ways of considering the efficacy of political violence. Finally, methodological debates within the study of social movements are relevant for research on terrorism. In sum, a social movement approach to terrorism has much to contribute, and research on terrorism could have important extensions and implications for social movement theory.     

Family Discussion Groups for Patients with Chronic Pain: A Pilot Study

This pilot study investigated the benefits of discussion groups for patients with chronic pain and their family members. Nineteen patients with chronic pain and 41 relatives participated in four consecutive groups. Most patients and family members found their participation clearly helpful for themselves and for the family. The group helped them to improve communication, support and mutual relationships, and to better cope with the pain. Reported beneficial factors were experiencing communality, having a place to discuss things with each other, gaining insights, and learning from fellow‐sufferers and their own family. Post treatment, patients also felt less distressed by the pain, less depressed, less insufficient and showed an increase in life‐control and social activities. Moreover, some aspects of the family climate improved, but only in the perception of the family members. The present study points to the value of a multifamily format in chronic pain therapy and suggests the appropriateness of further controlled investigation.     

Sampling issues in the administration of justice

Colin Aitken first became interested in sampling in the context of the administration of justice when the case of US versus Shonubi was brought to his attention. Shonubi was a Nigerian working in New York. He was arrested at Kennedy Airport when seen behaving in a suspicious manner in the baggage hall, having returned on a flight from Nigeria. He was found to have 103 bags of a white substance inside him, four of which were examined. The white substance was identified as heroin. Shonubi was arrested, tried and found guilty of drug smuggling. The question then arose as to the length of sentence he should be given.     

Using Time Intervals Between Expected Events to Communicate Risk Magnitudes

Because members of the public have difficulty understanding risk presented in terms of odds ratios (e.g., 1 in 1000) and in comparing odds ratios from different hazards, we examined the use of time intervals between expected harmful events to communicate risk. Perceptions of the risk from a hypothetical instance of naturally-occurring, cancer-causing arsenic in drinking water supplies was examined with a sample of 705 homeowners. The risk was described as either 1 in 1000 or 1 in 100,000 and as present in a town of 2000 people or a city of 200,000 people. With these parameters, the time intervals ranged from 1 expected death in 3500 years (1 in 100,000 risk, small town) to 1 death every 4 months (1 in 1000 risk, city). The addition of time intervals to the odds ratios significantly decreased perceived threat and perceived need for action in the small town but did not affect response for the city. These framing effects were nearly as large as a 100-fold difference in actual risk. Instances when this communication approach may be useful are discussed.     

Probabilistic Risk Analysis for a High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository

A probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for a high-level radioactive waste repository is very important since it gives an estimate of its health impacts, allowing comparisons to be made with the health impacts of competing technologies. However, it is extremely difficult to develop a credible PRA for a specific repository site because of large uncertainties in future climate, hydrology, geological processes, etc. At best, such a PRA would not be understandable to the public. An alternative proposed here is to develop a PRA for an average U.S. site, taking all properties of the site to be the U.S. average. The results are equivalent to the average results for numerous randomly selected sites. Such a PRA is presented here; it is easy to understand, and it is not susceptible to substantial uncertainty. Applying the results to a specific repository site then requires only a simple, intuitively acceptable "leap of faith" in assuming that with large expenditures of effort and money, experts can select a site that would be at least as secure as a randomly selected site.