Seasonal forcing on the dynamics ofClethrionomys rufocanus: Modeling geographic gradients in population dynamics

We interpret gradients in population dynamics of the gray-sided vole from the southwestern part of the island of Hokkaido to its northeastern part within the framework of a phenomenological model involving the relative length of summer and winter. In Hokkaido, as in other northern regions, both spring and fall is considered as short transition periods between the two main seasons — summer (the primary breeding season) and winter (the non-reproductive or secondary breeding season). We show that the geographic transition in dynamics may be understood as the combined consequence of different patterns of density-dependence during summer and winter, and geographically varying season lengths. Differences are shown to exist between summer and winter with respect to strength of density-dependence. Direct density-dependence, in particular, is stronger during winter than during summer. A model is presented to show how relative lengths of seasons can induce both stable and periodically fluctuating population dynamics. The results are compared and contrasted with what is otherwise known about the gradient in rodent dynamics in Fennoscandia.     

The Relationship Between Aversive Conditioning and Risk-avoidance in Gambling

This study investigated the relationship between aversive conditioning, heart rate variability suppression, behavioral activation system/behavioral inhibition system and risk-avoidance on the Iowa gambling task (IGT) in a nonclinical sample (29 male, 29 female, mean age = 20.7). A laboratory based Pavlovian aversive conditioning paradigm was used where a 1500 Hz tone (CS+) was followed by a burst of loud white noise (US), and a 850 Hz (CS−) tone was never followed by the US. In a subsequent extinction phase where the CS+ and CS− were presented without the US, conditioned skin conductance responses to the CS+ indicated aversive conditioning. The results showed that the participants who did not show aversive conditioning (N = 26) exhibited significantly less risk-avoidance compared to participants who did show aversive conditioning (N = 32). Regression analysis showed that among the study variables, only aversive conditioning contributed significantly to explaining variance in risk-avoidance. These results may have implications for understanding risk-taking in gambling in general, and may be a starting point understanding the role of aversive conditioning in the development and maintenance of gambling problems.     

Improving traceability in continuous processes using flow simulations

Traceability is normally difficult to achieve in continuous processes, since there are no natural batch structures. In this article, we demonstrate flow-based simulation using process data to improve traceability in a continuous pelletising process. Using the simulation model, the engineers could test the impacts of process disturbances, identify cause and effect relations and aid control in case of process disturbances. In a field trial where the chemistry of an additive was varied during production of a special product, the simulation forecasts predicted the level of the chemical content after the plant within the errors that the engineers found acceptable.     

Medical impairing injuries among Swedish firefighters

Using insurance data, medically impairing injuries sustained by 111 firefighters were analyzed. The injury incidence per year among full-time working firefighters was 39 per 10 000, and among part-time working firefighters 6 per 10 000. More than half (51%) were injured during fitness training, 14% during job training, and 13% during emergency response, while 4% were injured in traffic crashes and 18% in other injury events. Soccer and floorball caused 82% of all fitness injuries, of which more than half were meniscal or sprain injuries of knees or ankles. None of those injured during emergency response suffered from burn injuries, however during job training 4 sustained burns. Less injurious fitness training and practice activities could greatly reduce impairing injuries among firefighters and consequently reduce economical losses and disability.     

Many a slip between cup and lip. Process evaluation of a program to promote and support evidence-based public health practice

The main aims of this study are to document whether an intervention for promoting evidence-based public health practice had been delivered as intended and to explore the reasons for its lack of impact. Process data from the implementation of the program and data from interviews with 40 public health physicians are analyzed. Although they expressed satisfaction with the service, the doctors experienced the program as rather irrelevant for their daily work. They did not perceive that they dealt with many issues relevant for the use of research information, and if they did, referring to research would not make any difference to the way others perceived their advice. There is a need to develop more overlying strategies for integrating evidence into decision making than addressing the individual level.     

Cross-country determinants of life satisfaction: exploring different determinants across groups in society

This paper explores a wide range of cross-country determinants of life satisfaction exploiting a database of 90,000 observations in 70 countries. We distinguish four groups of aggregate variables as potential determinants of satisfaction: political, economic, institutional, and human development and culture. We use ordered probit to investigate the importance of these variables on individual life satisfaction and test the robustness of our results with Extreme Bounds Analysis. The results show that only a small number of factors, such as openness, business climate, postcommunism, the number of chambers in parliament, Christian majority, and infant mortality, robustly influence life satisfaction across countries while the importance of many variables suggested in the previous literature is not confirmed. This remains largely true when the analysis splits national populations according to gender, income, and political orientation also. We thank Stephen Lea, participants at the 30th IAREP conference in Prague and the referees of this journal for comments on earlier versions. Gilles Winkler provided excellent research assistance.     

Charisma and organizational change: A multilevel study of perceived charisma,commitment to change,and team performance

What makes people perceive a leader as charismatic, and how do team leaders obtain performance outcomes from their followers? We examine leaders in times of organizational change and investigate the mechanisms through which leaders' change-promoting behaviors are associated with team performance. In a multilevel mediation model, we propose that the indirect relationship between change-promoting behaviors and team performance is sequentially transmitted through followers' perceptions of charisma and followers' commitment to change. A study of 33 leaders and 142 followers provides empirical support for the model, using multilevel structural equation modeling to analyze top-down relationships between leaders and followers and bottom-up relationships between followers and team outcomes. Results suggest that team leaders are perceived as more charismatic when they engage in change-promoting behaviors. These behaviors facilitate team performance through individual followers' perceived charisma and commitment to change.     

Sicherheitsäquivalente zur risikoadjustierten Bewertung: Unternehmensexterne Bewertungssicht vs. unternehmensinterne Steuerungssicht Replik zu den Anmerkungen „Zum Verhältnis von Wertadditivität bei Sicherheitsäquivalenten und Risikoanalyse“ von <Emphasis Type="Italic">Reichling et al.</Emphasis> (2008)

Die Forderung nach schwacher Wertadditivit?t von Sicherheits?quivalenten ist in Abh?ngigkeit des jeweiligen Bewertungszwecks zu diskutieren. W?hrend in der unternehmensexternen Bewertungssicht, z.B. bei der Unternehmensbewertung, die Forderung nach schwacher Wertadditivit?t gut begründbar ist, stellt sie im Bereich der unternehmensinternen Steuerungssicht eine „Nice to have“-Anforderung dar. Darüber hinaus werden in der bisherigen Literatur zur Anwendbarkeit von Sicherheits?quivalenten die Kernherausforderungen der unternehmensinternen Steuerung vernachl?ssigt. Insbesondere die ad?quate Berücksichtigung stochastischer Abh?ngigkeiten im Portfolioverbund bei der Bewertung von Einzelgesch?ften mittels Sicherheits?quivalenten stellt eine Forschungslücke dar.     

Risk Perceptions and Alcohol Consumption among Young People

Swedish cross-sectional survey data on young individuals was used to analyse the determinants of perceived risks of alcohol use and how these perceptions relate to drinking behaviour. Three major conclusions were drawn: (1) that people overestimate the risks of alcoholism, (2) that these risk perceptions fall substantially with age, but nevertheless imply risk overestimation, and (3) that education about alcohol, narcotics and tobacco leads individuals to perceive risks more correctly and to have lower risk beliefs. An additional finding was that individuals with higher perceived risks were less likely to consume alcohol. Equations were estimated both separately and simultaneously.