Urban or rural fragments: which soil use in forest surroundings induces greater litter deposition?

Urban Ecosystems - The soil use in surroundings of forest remnants, as well as, variations in seasonality and rainfall totals from each year might influence the composition, structure, and...     

Noncrossing structured additive multiple-output Bayesian quantile regression models

Quantile regression models are a powerful tool for studying different points of the conditional distribution of univariate response variables. Their multivariate counterpart extension though is not straightforward, starting with the definition of multivariate quantiles. We propose here a flexible Bayesian quantile regression model when the response variable is multivariate, where we are able to define a structured additive framework for all predictor variables. We build on previous ideas considering a directional approach to define the quantiles of a response variable with multiple outputs, and we define noncrossing quantiles in every directional quantile model. We define a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure for model estimation, where the noncrossing property is obtained considering a Gaussian process design to model the correlation between several quantile regression models. We illustrate the results of these models using two datasets: one on dimensions of inequality in the population, such as income and health; the second on scores of students in the Brazilian High School National Exam, considering three dimensions for the response variable.     

Loss of Life Caused by the Flooding of New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina: Analysis of the Relationship Between Flood Characteristics and Mortality

In this article a preliminary analysis of the loss of life caused by Hurricane Katrina in the New Orleans metropolitan area is presented. The hurricane caused more than 1,100 fatalities in the state of Louisiana. A preliminary data set that gives information on the recovery locations and individual characteristics for 771 fatalities has been analyzed. One-third of the analyzed fatalities occurred outside the flooded areas or in hospitals and shelters in the flooded area. These fatalities were due to the adverse public health situation that developed after the floods. Two-thirds of the analyzed fatalities were most likely associated with the direct physical impacts of the flood and mostly caused by drowning. The majority of victims were elderly: nearly 60% of fatalities were over 65 years old. Similar to historical flood events, mortality rates were highest in areas near severe breaches and in areas with large water depths. An empirical relationship has been derived between the water depth and mortality and this has been compared with similar mortality functions proposed based on data for other flood events. The overall mortality among the exposed population for this event was approximately 1%, which is similar to findings for historical flood events. Despite the fact that the presented results are preliminary they give important insights into the determinants of loss of life and the relationship between mortality and flood characteristics.     

Out of touch: local government and disabled people's employment needs

In autumn 2003 we contracted to undertake a study in two district council areas of ways in which they could meet their Local Public Service Agreement (LPSA) targets in respect of disabled people returning to work. We undertook a literature review of barriers to work, interviewed a number of people involved in working with unemployed people and a number of disabled people in these areas. All the employment organisations we had contact with were working to an individual model of disability and the need to change their orientation became the central recommendation of the first phase of this study. This was rejected by those funding the study. At the end of the first year none of the organisations active in this area was able to identify a single disabled person who had returned to work as a result of their help. We conclude that central government policies are doing little to change the perception of the employment needs of disabled people within local government.     

Applying the Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method (PMRM) to Portfolio Selection

The analysis of risk-return tradeoffs and their practical applications to portfolio analysis paved the way for Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which won Harry Markowitz a 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics. A typical approach in measuring a portfolio's expected return is based on the historical returns of the assets included in a portfolio. On the other hand, portfolio risk is usually measured using volatility, which is derived from the historical variance-covariance relationships among the portfolio assets. This article focuses on assessing portfolio risk, with emphasis on extreme risks. To date, volatility is a major measure of risk owing to its simplicity and validity for relatively small asset price fluctuations. Volatility is a justified measure for stable market performance, but it is weak in addressing portfolio risk under aberrant market fluctuations. Extreme market crashes such as that on October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") and catastrophic events such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 that led to a four-day suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are a few examples where measuring risk via volatility can lead to inaccurate predictions. Thus, there is a need for a more robust metric of risk. By invoking the principles of the extreme-risk-analysis method through the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM), this article contributes to the modeling of extreme risks in portfolio performance. A measure of an extreme portfolio risk, denoted by f(4), is defined as the conditional expectation for a lower-tail region of the distribution of the possible portfolio returns. This article presents a multiobjective problem formulation consisting of optimizing expected return and f(4), whose solution is determined using Evolver-a software that implements a genetic algorithm. Under business-as-usual market scenarios, the results of the proposed PMRM portfolio selection model are found to be compatible with those of the volatility-based model. However, under extremely unfavorable market conditions, results indicate that f(4) can be a more valid measure of risk than volatility.     

Policy planning and central-local relations

This paper is based on research carried out at the Institute of Local Government Studies at the University of Birmingham. Policy Planning Systems are ways of dealing with the division of functions between central and local government and they provide a structure for the flow of information by means of specified procedures and processes. As this tends to create an increased flow of work, this area of planning is threatened by central and local government cut-backs in expenditures and manpower, and may well only survive by a positive demostration of its usefulness.     

From Children's Departments to Family Departments

Drawing upon his own experience as a child care officer, the author draws attention to the local authority Children's Departments which were established 50 years ago in 1948. To mark the anniversary, interviews were held with 20 former children's officers. From these, it was possible to identify three major achievements of the Children's Departments, namely the restoration of natural parents to child care, the promotion of child care skills, and the formation of a highly committed staff force. The Children's Departments were abolished over a quarter of a century ago and amalgamated into the Social Services Departments (Social Work Departments in Scotland). Despite some notable advances, it is argued that, under these departments, preventative work with children, child care skills and staff morale have declined. As a way forward, the author proposes the formation of a local authority Family Department which would consist of family workers equipped with child care skills, a facility approach which offers open services, and backing for locally run neighbourhood groups. It is contended that this service would be acceptable to and particularly helpful to parents and children living in conditions of social deprivation.     

The Waterbirth Project: São Bernardo Hospital experience

Introduction

The following quantitative observational study aimed to analyse the maternal and neonatal outcomes of 90 low-risk pregnant women who gave birth in water at São Bernardo Hospital.

Being and Landscape: An Ontological Inquiry into a Japanese Rural Community

This essay aims to reflect on the idea of landscape and our relationship with it by taking the Japanese notion of furusato (native place) in its ontological dimension. Grounded in Heidegger’s ‘phenomenology of Being’ and ‘ontology’, a phenomenological understanding of fieldwork experience in a Japanese rural community will be developed in order to rethink both the furusato and the ‘Being-landscape’ relation. As a consequence, we will be concerned not with how people speak about landscape, but with how the landscape speaks through people. What will be brought to light are the landscape’s moral and relational dimensions: namely, (i) the responsibility towards both our communities and future generations and (ii) a more-than-physical understanding of landscape that alerts us to our belonging to a common world comprised of relationships and tasks.