A Bayesian analysis for the Block and Basu bivariate exponential distribution in the presence of covariates and censored data

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian Analysis for the Block and Basu bivariate exponential distribution using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and considering lifetimes in presence of covariates and censored data. Posterior summaries of interest are obtained using the popular WinBUGS software. Numerical illustrations are introduced considering a medical data set related to the recurrence times of infection for kidney patients and a medical data set related to bone marrow transplantation for leukemia.     

展望一种可持续的后现代生态文明

遏制贪婪和其它欲望是个体幸福的关键,同时也是一笔共同财富。西方资本主义一直以贪婪和欲望作为经济发展的动力,这是直接导致过度消费、债务和不可持续性的根源。中国在这件事情上会更加聪明,去努力建设一个可持续的后现代生态文明,拥抱自由和有创造力的自由市场体系,同时拒绝西方破坏性的贪婪和欲望。     

Exponential random graph models of preschool affiliative networks

Exponential random graph models were used to assess the relevance of reciprocity, popularity, transitivity controlling for effects based upon ego and alter sex, and sex homophily, on the formation of affiliative ties in 19 Portuguese preschool peer groups. The number of times two children were recorded as nearest neighbors in focal samples was used as an indicator of the relationship's strength. Independent parameter estimates of the different models (one for each group) were summarized, separately for the three age groups (“3-year-olds”, “4-year-olds” and “5-year-olds”) using a multi-level approach to meta-analysis. Results showed that affiliative ties between children were sex segregated, highly reciprocal, more likely to be directed to a restricted number of children and with a tendency to create transitive triads. The structural processes underlying the formation of affiliative ties were quite stable between classrooms.     

Mistreatment of Older People in the United Kingdom: Findings from the First National Prevalence Study

There have been few national studies of the prevalence of elder mistreatment (abuse and neglect) in private households. This article provides an overview of the UK National Prevalence Study of Elder Mistreatment that took place in 2006. It addressed 2,111 respondents in four countries who answered a face-to-face survey questionnaire. The achieved sample was weighted to be representative of the UK older population. Of respondents, 2.6% reported mistreatment by family members, close friends, or care workers. The predominant type of reported mistreatment was neglect (1.1%) followed by financial abuse (0.6%), with 0.4% of respondents reporting psychological abuse, 0.4% physical abuse, and 0.2% sexual abuse. Women were significantly more likely to have experienced mistreatment than men, but there were gender differences according to type of abuse and perpetrator characteristics. Divergent patterns were found for neglect, financial, and interpersonal abuse. Further analysis of the data indicated that the likelihood of mistreatment varied with socioeconomic position and health status.     

Social Work Practice and Education in México

Social work education and practice in Mexico has emphasized need for social change, family, and community involvement. Education includes casework, group work, and community organization with extensive field work experience that is community based. Education programs rely heavily on literature from South American countries including liberation theory such as that espoused by Paolo Friere. Social work education at the college level prepares graduates for practice, with a licencia. Social Workers in Mexico work in medical settings, children's services, rehabilitation, family services, work settings and a variety of community based programs. Mexico has begun to develop graduate education. Education in the US, Canada, Mexico and other countries could be enhanced with further exchanges of faculty, students and literature.     

Inference in Nonparametric Instrumental Variables With Partial Identification

This paper develops methods for hypothesis testing in a nonparametric instrumental variables setting within a partial identification framework. We construct and derive the asymptotic distribution of a test statistic for the hypothesis that at least one element of the identified set satisfies a conjectured restriction. The same test statistic can be employed under identification, in which case the hypothesis is whether the true model satisfies the posited property. An almost sure consistent bootstrap procedure is provided for obtaining critical values. Possible applications include testing for semiparametric specifications as well as building confidence regions for certain functionals on the identified set. As an illustration we obtain confidence intervals for the level and slope of Brazilian fuel Engel curves. A Monte Carlo study examines finite sample performance.