Can ranking techniques elicit robust values?

This paper reports two experiments which examine the use of ranking methods to elicit ‘certainty equivalent’ values. It investigates whether such methods are able to eliminate the disparities between choice and value which constitute the ‘preference reversal phenomenon’ and which thereby pose serious problems for both theory and policy application. The results show that ranking methods are vulnerable to distorting effects of their own, but that when such effects are controlled for, the preference reversal phenomenon, previously so strong and striking, is very considerably attenuated.

Oracle GMM estimation for misspecified models via thresholding

We propose a thresholding generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for misspecified time series moment condition models. This estimator has the following oracle property: its asymptotic behavior is the same as of any efficient GMM estimator obtained under the a priori information that the true model were known. We propose data adaptive selection methods for thresholding parameter using multiple testing procedures. We determine the limiting null distributions of classical parameter tests and show the consistency of the corresponding block-bootstrap tests used in conjunction with thresholding GMM inference. We present the results of a simulation study for a misspecified instrumental variable regression model and for a vector autoregressive model with measurement error. We illustrate an application of the proposed methodology to data analysis of a real-world dataset.     

Coal demand,market forces,and U.S. coal mine closures

Economic transitions have the potential to displace workers and cause social unrest. Coal mine closures and the resulting employment losses in rural areas have become salient issues. Using data on coal mine and power plant operation, we model closure as a function of expected profits, which allows us to compare the effects on mine closure of specific demand and supply shocks to expected mine profits. Increasing costs of production have had a large impact on closures, but lower natural gas prices and lower electricity demand have played more recently important roles.     

Of politics,self-preservation,and symbolism: An investigation of jurisdiction-stripping and legislative redistricting

Jurisdiction-stripping has long been a questionable component of Congress's power to supervise the judiciary's policymaking role. It has gained notoriety in recent debates surrounding judicial involvement in areas including religious establishment and privacy issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage. Most scholarship equates the advocacy of jurisdiction-stripping measures with symbolic position-taking that is unmotivated by the goal of traditional policy success. This work, a quantitative case study of the first such measure to pass the House of Representative since Reconstruction, seeks to isolate legislative motivations for exerting jurisdictional controls against the Supreme Court. Legislators’ votes on this measure were multifaceted. While those decisions were guided in part by the symbolic and representational considerations that traditionally underlie the advocacy of such legislation, there is also evidence more substantive motivations played a part. The study highlights the evolving objectives of jurisdiction-stripping's advocates and, more broadly, Congress's objectives vis-à-vis the courts.     

AFDC/TANF Exits and Re-entries for Families Raising Children with Educational Disabilities

Having a child with a disability is considered a barrier to self-sufficiency among welfare recipients. This study examines the impact of children's educational disability on single-mother families' welfare exits and re-entries for a cohort of children in a metropolitan region in Missouri, who were born between 1982 and 1994, and received AFDC/TANF at least once from 1990 through 2008 (N=4,928). A semiparametric proportional hazards model for recurrent events is used to analyze the relationship between a child's educational disability and family welfare exit and re-entry. Results show that families with children with disabilities (the disability group) are less likely to exit and more likely to re-enter the welfare system than families with children without disabilities (the nondisability group). After the 1996 welfare reform, the welfare exit rate increases more for the disability group than for the nondisability group, while the welfare re-entry rate decreases less for the disability group than for the nondisability group.     

Student Veteran Career Transition Readiness,Career Adaptability,and Academic and Life Satisfaction

Student military veterans pursuing higher education present with unique career development needs. To better understand these needs, the authors conducted an exploratory study to examine career transition readiness, career adaptability, academic satisfaction, and satisfaction with life among 134 student military veterans (34 women, 100 men). Results indicated statistically significant positive correlations between satisfaction with life scores and scores on measures of career transition readiness and career adaptability. Regression results demonstrated that career transition readiness and career adaptability predicted satisfaction with life, but not academic satisfaction. The findings suggest a need to understand the complexity of student veterans’ career and academic development in both research and practice.     

A Circumplex Model of Couple Configurations in Relational Trauma Context: An Example of Practice‐Based Model Development

We propose a circumplex model and typology of patterns of couple engagement to help therapists assess and shape positive couple engagement, prerequisite to successful resolution of relational trauma. View or value of self in relation to other (VSIRO) is conceived as a primary engine organizing couple relationships and patterns of engagement. VSIRO is conceptualized along a continuum anchored at opposite poles by inflated (self‐aggrandizing) versus collapsed (self‐negating) VSIRO, with a balanced (egalitarian) VSIRO as the target position, consisting of self and other mutuality, respect, and equality. Two axes (one for each partner) form the circumplex model of five couple configurations—four quadrants plus a balanced, mid‐axes region. Using couple configuration conceptualization to address patterns of engagement is an essential prerequisite to resolving couple relational trauma.     

DESIGNED TO FAIL: THE MEDICARE AUCTION FOR DURABLE MEDICAL EQUIPMENT

We examine the theoretical properties of the auction for Medicare Durable Medical Equipment. Two unique features of the Medicare auction are (1) winners are paid the median winning bid and (2) bids are nonbinding. We show that median pricing results in allocation inefficiencies as some high‐cost firms potentially displace low‐cost firms as winners. Further, the auction may leave demand unfulfilled as some winners refuse to supply because the price is set below their cost. We also introduce a model of nonbinding bids that establishes the rationality of a lowball bid strategy employed by many bidders in the actual Medicare auctions and recently replicated in Caltech experiments. We contrast the median‐price auction with the standard clearing‐price auction where each firm bids true costs as a dominant strategy, resulting in competitive equilibrium prices and full efficiency. (JEL D44, I11, H57)     

Widowhood and Well‐being in Europe: The Role of National and Regional Context

Researchers have documented that widows have lower levels of subjective well‐being than married individuals, but we still know little about how the regional and national contexts affect the impact of widowhood on well‐being. Building on social capital theory and using data from 5 rounds of the European Social Survey (N= 119,292 people, 206 regions, 23 countries), the authors tested how marital status composition at the national and regional levels affects the well‐being of widows. Widows fare worse in countries with high proportions of married people and in regions and countries with high proportions of widowed persons. The proportion of married individuals at the regional level does not affect their well‐being. These results are in line with the greedy marriage hypothesis, but varying effects at regional and national levels suggest that the standard explanation for this phenomenon, lack of individual social support, is not valid. This study demonstrates the importance of multiple contextual embeddedness.     

Are economic trends associated with child maltreatment? Preliminary results from the recent recession using state level data

The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of the recent economic recession on child maltreatment rates. Specifically, we examine whether unemployment rates, labor force participation, and food stamp usage are associated with aggregate rates of child abuse and neglect (CAN) rates using state-level data. Theory and prior empirical evidence supports the relationship between family and neighborhood poverty and incidence of child maltreatment; however, the relationship between general economic environment and CAN remains unclear.The study uses a multiple case study design at the state level, analyzing administrative child maltreatment and economic data for seven U.S. states. Aggregate numbers for child maltreatment reports and food stamp usage were obtained from state respective agencies and economic data for unemployment and labor force from the Current Population Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Empirical growth plots and OLS regression were used to examine changes in maltreatment and utilization of economic variables as predictors over time. Bivariate correlations and OLS regression results show a weak and inconsistent relationship between the economic indicators in this study and maltreatment rates. Several possible reasons accounting for these results are explored.