Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.     

Teachers' role in the primary prevention of child abuse dilemmas and problems

During the 1980s, many school-based primary prevention programmes were developed and adopted by schools. Much of the early enthusiasm which greeted these programmes dissipated in the light of often disappointing evaluations of the impact of the programmes on children. It is argued, however, that evaluating student outcomes should not occur before theextent of programme utilization is established. In this paper, an overview is given on the dilemmas and problems faced by teachers attempting to implement a primary prevention programme in South Australia. It is revealed that teachers selectively omit sections of the primary prevention programme as a way of resolving personal dilemmas presented by the programme. Some teachers are sensitive about teaching personal and controversial issues related to child abuse, while others deny the seriousness of child abuse in theirschool. The implications of the findings are that: (a) it cannot be assumed that primary prevention programmes are implemented by teachers in ways that are consistent with programme design; (b) teachers' personal beliefs, attitudes and feelings need to be addressed in any school-based primary prevention initiative; (c) training approaches and school support mechanisms need to focus on methods by which teachers can resolve the dilemmas raised by school-based primary prevention programmes in ways other than by radically dismembering the programme.     

A preliminary test of the validity of the LCSW examination

Social workers seeking licensure in most states must pass one of the four different written examinations developed by the American Association of State Social Work Boards (AASSWB). These examinations are claimed to be valid measures of professional social work knowledge and competence to practice. To test this claim, we administered the multiple-choice 50-item Advanced practice examination contained within the official AASSWB Advanced study guide to 42 first year MSW students. Weblanked out the actual question content, and asked the students to select the correct answers from among the four choices given. Chance would suggest that the average score should be about 25% correct (one out of four). In actualitythe students' scores averaged 37% correct, a statistically significant difference. These results challenge the content and discriminant validity of the AASSWB examination and call for further studies on the examinations' value.     

Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.     

Risk Assessment for Invasive Species

Although estimates vary, there is a broad agreement that invasive species impose major costs on the U.S. economy, as well as posing risks to nonmarket environmental goods and services and to public health. The domestic effort to manage risks associated with invasive species is coordinated by the National Invasive Species Council (NISC), which is charged with developing a science-based process to evaluate risks associated with the introduction and spread of invasive species. Various international agreements have also elevated invasive species issues onto the international policy agenda. The World Trade Organization (WTO) Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement establishes rights and obligations to adhere to the discipline of scientific risk assessment to ensure that SPS measures are applied only to the extent required to protect human, animal, and plant health, and do not constitute arbitrary or unjustifiable technical barriers to trade. Currently, however, the field of risk assessment for invasive species is in its infancy. Therefore, there is a pressing need to formulate scientifically sound methods and approaches in this emerging field, while acknowledging that the demand for situation-specific empirical evidence is likely to persistently outstrip supply. To begin addressing this need, the Society for Risk Analysis Ecological Risk Assessment Specialty Group and the Ecological Society of America Theoretical Ecology Section convened a joint workshop to provide independent scientific input into the formulation of methods and processes for risk assessment of invasive species to ensure that the analytic processes used domestically and internationally will be firmly rooted in sound scientific principles.