The Representation of Hypergeometric Random Variables using Independent Bernoulli Random Variables

In this paper, we show that a hypergeometric random variable can be represented as a sum of independent Bernoulli random variables that are, except in degenerate cases, not identically distributed. In the proof, we use the factorial moment generating function. An asymptotic result on the probabilities of the Bernoulli random variables in the sum is also presented. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the results.     

Social Sources of Community Solidarity in U.S. Congregations

Community solidarity, or a collective sense of belonging, plays a vital role in the health and survival of many organizations. Consequently, identifying the elements that contribute to a strong sense of solidarity within communities has long been a topic of inquiry for scholars. In this study, we draw upon prior theorizing to develop and test four hypotheses regarding the organizational characteristics associated with community solidarity in religious congregations. Multivariate models are estimated using national data on religious congregations from the 2001 U.S. Congregational Life Survey (n?=?357). Organizations with greater community solidarity tend to feature higher levels of social capital (operationalized with measures of friendship networks and participation in organizational activities), higher levels of official membership within the organization, and inspiring congregational leadership. Higher levels of commitment are associated with greater community solidarity, but the effect is wholly mediated by social capital. Congregations that engender higher levels of community solidarity share certain organizational features, including higher levels of social capital, higher rates of membership, and inspiring leaders.     

如何有效地扩大医疗保险覆盖面——拉美国家的经验教训及启示

本文以拉美国家的经验及启示为视角，就如何有效地扩大医疗保险覆盖面问题展开论述。     

Can Demographic Variables Predict Lottery and Pari-mutuel Losses? An Empirical Investigation

Using data from the 2004 and 2005 Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CES) comprising of 15,000 respondents, this study examines two research questions. The first of these considers the demographic differences between households whose members lose money playing the lottery and/or engaging in pari-mutuel betting and those whose members do not lose money participating in such activities. The second assesses demographic differences among households whose members lose money playing the lottery and/or engaging in pari-mutuel betting. It was found that respondents living in money-losing households are slightly older, better off financially, more likely to be married or divorced, more likely to live in a state with at least one legal casino and more likely to live in the Northeast than respondents living in non-money-losing households. Among those living in money-losing households, the least wealthy and African American respondents are more likely to lose a higher proportion of their respective incomes purchasing lottery tickets and engaging in pari-mutuel betting than wealthier respondents and whites.     

Labour Underutilisation and Gender: Unemployment Versus Hidden-Unemployment

As labour markets have become more complex there has been increasing interest among researchers in understanding the ways that social and labour market processes and contexts impact on various labour market states. One important area has been in understanding the differences between unemployment and hidden unemployment. This paper considers the ways in which these two labour market states differ for a sample of male and female respondents to the Household Income and Labour Dynamics Australia (HILDA) survey. It presents data related to the reasons why respondents in these two labour force states consider they are jobless and analyses the characteristics of male and female respondents in the two labour market states to consider differences in outcomes. The findings suggest that there are differences in the two states of labour market outcomes and that these are further complicated when one considers processes for males and females.     

Sex,Arts and Verbal Abilities: Three Further Indicators of How American Life is not Improving

Despite clear evidence that Americans’ economic standard of living has improved over the last half-century in terms of income, ownership of technology and housing among other indicators, there is scant evidence from non-economic quality-of-life (QOL) indicators of improved life quality to parallel these economic gains. The present article adds to this list in showing little if any progress in three QOL indicators (the first two about time and activity) that have received less or no attention in the social indicators literature, namely (1) frequency of the highly enjoyable activity of sex, (2) participation in various serious arts activities and (3) scores of verbal ability. The data on sexual activity and verbal ability come from the 1974–2008 General Social Surveys (GSS) from the University of Chicago, and for the arts from the 2008 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts (SPPA) conducted by the US Census Bureau for the National Endowment for the Arts since 1982. All three surveys interviewed nationally representative samples, with over 70% response rates and sample sizes of more than 15,000 adults. The GSS data on sexual frequency show no significant increase in estimated frequency of sex since 1989, despite its strong appeal and the availability of new societal conveniences. This held both before and after adjustment for the age, marital status and education in the population; contrary to expectation, working long hours was associated with increased sex both before and after adjustment for these other demographic predictors. The SPPA trend data on arts participation actually showed a decline in participation, especially after adjustment for its major predictor of years of education; again no decreased participation was found among those working long hours. While scores on verbal ability in the GSS have stayed rather steady since 1974, they have decreased after MCA adjustment for the increased college education in more recent years, as documented by Nie et al. (2009). Thus, contrary to expectations, increases in public education have not been accompanied by improvements on these three indicators.     

Changes in At-Risk American Men's Crime and Substance Use Trajectories Following Fatherhood

Fatherhood can be a turning point in development and in men's crime and substance use trajectories. At-risk boys (N = 206) were assessed annually from ages 12 to 31 years. Crime, arrest, and tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use trajectories were examined. Marriage was associated with lower levels of crime and less frequent substance use. Following the birth of a first biological child, men's crime trajectories showed slope decreases, and tobacco and alcohol use trajectories showed level decreases. The older men were when they became fathers, the greater the level decreases were in crime and alcohol use and the less the slope decreases were in tobacco and marijuana use. Patterns are consistent with theories of social control and social timetables.     

A Critical Look at Some Analyses of Major League Baseball Salaries

At a data analysis exposition sponsored by the Section on Statistical Graphics of the ASA in 1988, 15 groups of statisticians analyzed the same data about salaries of major league baseball players. By examining what they did, what worked, and what failed, we can begin to learn about the relative strengths and weaknesses of different approaches to analyzing data. The data are rich in difficulties. They require reexpression, contain errors and outliers, and exhibit nonlinear relationships. They thus pose a realistic challenge to the variety of data analysis techniques used. The analysis groups chose a wide range of model-fitting methods, including regression, principal components, factor analysis, time series, and CART. We thus have an effective framework for comparing these approaches so that we can learn more about them. Our examination shows that approaches commonly identified with Exploratory Data Analysis are substantially more effective at revealing the underlying patterns in the data and at building parsimonious, understandable models that fit the data well. We also find that common data displays, when applied carefully, are often sufficient for even complex analyses such as this.