A comparison of indicators for evaluating x-11-arima seasonal adjustment

Summary The evaluation of the performance of seasonal adjustment procedures is an issue of practical importance in view of the unobservable nature of the components. Looking at just one indicator when judging the overall quality of a procedure may be misleading, even though this is common practice when many series are involved. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the information content of different synthetic indicators with reference to the X-11-ARIMA procedure. Sixty-six different types of monthly seasonal series are generated and the seasonal component then extracted by carrying out X-11-ARIMA with standard options. The correlation between the pseudo-true error for each series and various synthetic indicators allows us to compare the latter's reliability, under both the hypotheses of minimum and maximum variance of the pseudo-true seasonal component. We show that the overall quality indexQ-the indicator most commonly adopted by users of the X-11-ARIMA-is always outperformed by the simpler diagnostics based on the stability of the estimates. In particular, the “sliding-spans” indicator, proposed by Findley et al. (1990) and included in the diagnostics of the new X-12 procedure, shows a much stronger correlation with the pseudo-true error in the seasonal adjustment. We also show that the total forecasting errors in the one-year-ahead extrapolation of the seasonal component have a good informative power and perform almost as well as the “sliding-spans” indicator.     

The Ecology of Family Guidance in Low-Income Mexican-American and European-American Families*

This two-part study applied an ecocultural perspective to socialization of daily and long-term goals in low-income Mexican-American and European-American families with children in third, fifth, and seventh grades. The first part of the study examined family members' participation and parents' socialization goals and guidance strategies for their children's daily household chores and homework activities. The second part of the study examined parents' long-term aspirations and guidance strategies for their children's educational, vocational, and moral development. For daily activities, results showed that in Mexican-American families both parents and siblings played important roles, whereas in European-American families parents were the primary socialization agents. As predicted, in both groups parents' expertise influenced their guidance strategies. Finally, Mexican-American and European-American parents differed in their relative endorsement of gender, relational, and self-reliance goals for household chores. For long-term goals, parents in both groups held high educational, vocational, and moral aspirations for their children. However, some parents of seventh-graders had lower educational and vocational aspirations than those of fifth- and third-graders. Although expertise consistently influenced Mexican-American parents' guidance strategies, the pattern for European-American parents was mixed. The discussion highlights between- and within-group differences in daily and long-term socialization practices with an emphasis on resources and vulnerabilities in the families.     

Predicting Participation in Environmental Treaties: A World-System Analysis*

Which countries tend to sign international environmental treaties and why? This study tests the ability of quantitative cross-national political and economic analysis to predict participation in international environmental agreements over the period 1963–1987. Cross-sectional ordinary least squares regressions suggest that poor, highly indebted countries that are dependent on very few trading partners and that have repres-sive regimes are far more likely to be nonsignatories. The results suggest strategies for increasing the likelihood that nations will ratify hture environmental treaties.     

TOWARD A SYNTHESIS OF FEMINIST AND DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES ON FERTILITY

In explaining fertility and reproduction and emerging patterns of childbearing, both demographers and feminists have centered their thinking on women's status (economic and social), women's changing roles and life experiences (increased labor force participation, increased availability of reproductive options, declining marriage rates in many parts of the industrialized world, and the centrality of women to development), and women as agents in micro- and macrolevel changes in family, fertility, and economic change. Although demography has recently begun to integrate feminist perspectives into fertility explanations, there is not yet a synthesis of feminist theoretical insights with demographic questions. Drawing from recent thinking on global and national political and policy challenges in the less and more developed worlds, to the epistemological shifts in knowledge of reproduction/mothering, to changes in the technologies of reproduction, this article moves toward an integration of feminist and demographic perspectives on fertility.
…far from the economic dependence of women working in the interests of motherhood, it is the steadily acting cause of a pathological maternity and a declining birthrate.
Charlotte Perkins Stetson, Women and Economics , 1899     

Improving on truncated linear estimates of exponential and gamma scale parameters

We consider the problem of estimating the scale parameter of an exponential or a gamma distribution under squared error loss when the scale parameter θ is known to be greater than some fixed value θ₀. Natural estimators in this setting include truncated linear functions of the sufficient statistic. Such estimators are typically inadmissible, but explicit improvements seem difficult to find. Some are presented here. A particularly interesting finding is that estimators which are admissible in the untruncated problem which take values only in the interior of the truncated parameter space are found to be inadmissible for the truncated problem.     

I'm Telling! The Content, Context, and Consequences of Children's Tattling on their Siblings

Tattling on siblings was observed in 40 families with 2- and 4-year-old children. All but 5 children reported sibling misbehaviour to parents with younger siblings tattling largely to recruit parental help in resolving conflict issues, and older siblings tattling both in the context of conflict and merely to inform parents of their siblings' misbehaviour. Parents rarely reprimanded children for tattling, but either ignored it, or responded to information in tattlers' reports regardless of context or whether older or younger children tattled. Children did not tattle equally on all sibling transgressions, but emphasized physical aggression and property damage, issues that also elicited parental discipline. Tattling is discussed in relation to children's understanding of the dynamics and moral standards of family life.     

Sustainable societies in the information age

This article interweaves the ideas of sustainable development, sustainable societies, and the power of advanced information technologies toward developing recommendations for social science research on information technology in society. Worldwide concern has arisen over the potentially catastrophic consequences of global climate and environmental change. As a result, sustainable development (i.e., the simultaneous protection of both the global environment and the global economy) is receiving considerable attention. Necessary for achieving sustainable development are sustainable societies, which are capable of designing, implementing, managing and evaluating long-term environmental programs. This article presents ten characteristics that describe sustainable societies and discusses how information technologies, from wireless personal digital assistants to intelligent agents to multi-media database systems, could support the evolution of sustainable societies. Topics for social science research related to designing and ameliorating the negative consequences of eight hypothetical computer-based systems are presented. Bruce E. Tonn is leader of the policy systems analysis group at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and co-principal investigator of the National Center for Environmental Decision-making Research. His research interests include environmental and energy policy, computers in society, decision making, and futures studies. He is past president of the Social Science Computing Association. His research focuses on planning, assessment and evaluation, energy use and conservation, and education.