A Bayesian view of assessing uncertainty and comparing expert opinion

A Bayesian approach to the problem of comparing experts or expert systems is presented. The question of who is an expert is considered and comparisons among well-calibrated experts are studied. The concept of refinement, in various equivalent forms, is used in this study. An informative example of the combination of the opinions of well-calibrated experts is described. Total orderings of the class of well-calibrated experts are derived from strictly proper scoring rules.     

Technical Uncertainty in Quantitative Policy Analysis — A Sulfur Air Pollution Example

Expert judgments expressed as subjective probability distributions provide an appropriate means of incorporating technical uncertainty in some quantitative policy studies. Judgments and distributions obtained from several experts allow one to explore the extent to which the conclusions reached in such a study depend on which expert one talks to. For the case of sulfur air pollution from coal-fired power plants, estimates of sulfur mass balance as a function of plume flight time are shown to vary little across the range of opinions of leading atmospheric scientists while estimates of possible health impacts are shown to vary widely across the range of opinions of leading scientists in air pollution health effects.     

Estimating the movement among staging areas of the barnacle goose ( Branta leucopsis )

Barnacle geese ( Branta leucopsis ) make annual migrations between breeding colonies in northern Europe and Eurasia to wintering grounds in Holland. During the migration, they sojourn for several weeks in five areas on the northern coast of Germany. Observers traverse these areas during the course of studying the flocks. Previous belief was that there was little exchange of birds among the five areas; however, some banded birds were observed in more than one area indicating that some movement takes place. In this presentation, we estimate the movement rates among the areas using open- and closed-population models.     

Managers' attitudes about firm responsibilities

A mail survey was conducted in order to investigate whether the importance a manager attaches to corporate ethical and legal responsibilities varies according to personality characteristics, demographic variables, or the perceived moral climates in the manager's firm. Respondents were middle- and lower-level managers in 112 for-profit businesses located throughout the United States. As expected, attitudes about corporate ethical responsibility were significantly related to (1) the individual's capacity for empathy and (2) a perceived caring climate in the firm; attitudes about corporate legal responsibility were significantly related to (1) the individual's hierarchical position and (2) an organizational climate perceived to be supportive of law.Data collection for this research was subsidized by the Old Dominion University Research Foundation and the ODU College of Business and Public Administration Bureau of Research.     

Concretizing the concept of social stress

The concept of social stress, as adapted from Selye's work on biology, is insufficient to explain psychological functioning. To be useful, social stress must include enduring social practices characteristic of particular social systems that violate socially generated as well as biological needs. Some of these stressful events are gender role, poverty, and societal practices such as extreme competition, individualism, and materialism.