The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking

We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking in three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate fast and slow decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 7 or 20 seconds (time delay) before responding. To control for different effects of time pressure and time delay on measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters for noise and risk preferences within a random utility framework. We find that time pressure increases risk aversion for gains and risk taking for losses compared to time delay, implying that time pressure increases the reflection effect of Prospect Theory. The results for gains are weaker and less robust than the results for losses. We find no significant difference between time pressure and time delay for loss aversion (tested in only one of the experiments). Time delay also leads to less measurement noise than time pressure and unconstrained decisions, and appears to be an effective way of decreasing noise in experiments.     

Quantifying the Establishment Likelihood of Invasive Alien Species Introductions Through Ports with Application to Honeybees in Australia

The cost of an uncontrolled incursion of invasive alien species (IAS) arising from undetected entry through ports can be substantial, and knowledge of port‐specific risks is needed to help allocate limited surveillance resources. Quantifying the establishment likelihood of such an incursion requires quantifying the ability of a species to enter, establish, and spread. Estimation of the approach rate of IAS into ports provides a measure of likelihood of entry. Data on the approach rate of IAS are typically sparse, and the combinations of risk factors relating to country of origin and port of arrival diverse. This presents challenges to making formal statistical inference on establishment likelihood. Here we demonstrate how these challenges can be overcome with judicious use of mixed‐effects models when estimating the incursion likelihood into Australia of the European (Apis mellifera) and Asian (A. cerana) honeybees, along with the invasive parasites of biosecurity concern they host (e.g., Varroa destructor). Our results demonstrate how skewed the establishment likelihood is, with one‐tenth of the ports accounting for 80% or more of the likelihood for both species. These results have been utilized by biosecurity agencies in the allocation of resources to the surveillance of maritime ports.     

Households,Families and Prospective Economic Mobility in Mexico

The study analyzed poverty as a function of households’ demographic composition using a longitudinal random sample of 4268 urban and rural households that were followed-up from 2005/6 to 2009/12 in Mexico to estimate short-term changes in living conditions. Well-being was measured as the dwelling unit’s number of rooms, water source, sanitary services, garbage disposal, and fuel. Mobility paths included not poor–not poor, poor–poor, not poor–poor, and poor–not poor. Independent variables included household composition, family characteristics, residential changes, schooling, and occupation. Female headship and older adults negatively impacted poverty, whereas economic dependents may be negatively or positively associated. Fertility incentives for low-income populations are not advisable. Working-age adults contribute only if income-generating opportunities exist locally.     

Social (Dis)Approval and Collective Action Participation: Re‐evaluating the Positive Linearity Thesis

Survey‐based studies on collective action generally assume that social approval of participation in collective action has a positive and linear effect on actual participation. However, this assumption has not yet been subjected to a genuine empirical evaluation. This article investigates the positive linearity thesis, using survey data on participation and non‐participation in a street demonstration in The Hague in 2011. Statistical analyses provide evidence in support of a curvilinear relation between social approval and participation—an increased rate of participation in case of both approval and disapproval by peers. We discuss two processes underlying the observed relation: one pertaining to rebelliousness and the other regarding political awareness. The article generally illustrates the need for further empirical research on social influence and participation in collective action.     

Introduction to the Special Section Value Development from Middle Childhood to Early Adulthood—New Insights from Longitudinal and Genetically Informed Research

Research into values at an early age has only started recently, although it has expanded quickly and dynamically in the past years. The purpose of this article is twofold: First, it provides an introduction to a special section that aims to help fill the gap in value development research. The special section brings together four new longitudinal and genetically informed studies of value development from the beginning of middle childhood through early adulthood. Second, this article reviews recent research from this special section and beyond, aiming to provide new directions to the field. With new methods for assessing children's values and an increased awareness of the role of values in children's and adolescents' development, the field now seems ripe for an in‐depth investigation. Our review of empirical evidence shows that, as is the case with adults, children's values are organized based on compatibilities and conflicts in their underlying motivations. Values show some consistency across situations, as well as stability across time. This longitudinal stability tends to increase with age, although mean changes are also observed. These patterns of change seem to be compatible with Schwartz's (1992) theory of values (e.g., if the importance of openness to change values increases, the importance of conservation values decreases). The contributions of culture, family, peers, significant life events, and individual characteristics to values are discussed, as well as the development of values as guides for behavior.     

Time‐Space Distanciation: An Interdisciplinary Account of How Culture Shapes the Implicit and Explicit Psychology of Time and Space

The growing body of research on temporal and spatial experience lacks a comprehensive theoretical approach. Drawing on Giddens’ framework, we present time‐space distanciation (TSD) as a construct for theorizing the relations between culture, time, and space. TSD in a culture may be understood as the extent to which (1) time and space are abstracted as separate dimensions and (2) activities are extended and organized across time and space. After providing a historical account of its development, we outline a multi‐level conceptualization of TSD supported by research on cultural differences in the experience of time and space. We impact this conceptualization by examining two ethnographic case studies. We conclude by highlighting future research directions. TSD is an integrative, interdisciplinary, multi level construct with the potential to guide the burgeoning social science of time and space.     

Marginal zero-inflated regression models for count data

Data sets with excess zeroes are frequently analyzed in many disciplines. A common framework used to analyze such data is the zero-inflated (ZI) regression model. It mixes a degenerate distribution with point mass at zero with a non-degenerate distribution. The estimates from ZI models quantify the effects of covariates on the means of latent random variables, which are often not the quantities of primary interest. Recently, marginal zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP; Long et al. [A marginalized zero-inflated Poisson regression model with overall exposure effects. Stat. Med. 33 (2014), pp. 5151–5165]) and negative binomial (MZINB; Preisser et al., 2016) models have been introduced that model the mean response directly. These models yield covariate effects that have simple interpretations that are, for many applications, more appealing than those available from ZI regression. This paper outlines a general framework for marginal zero-inflated models where the latent distribution is a member of the exponential dispersion family, focusing on common distributions for count data. In particular, our discussion includes the marginal zero-inflated binomial (MZIB) model, which has not been discussed previously. The details of maximum likelihood estimation via the EM algorithm are presented and the properties of the estimators as well as Wald and likelihood ratio-based inference are examined via simulation. Two examples presented illustrate the advantages of MZIP, MZINB, and MZIB models for practical data analysis.     

Evaluating the causal economic impacts of transport investments: evidence from the Madrid–Barcelona high speed rail corridor

This paper evaluates economic impacts arising from the introduction of high-speed rail (HSR) between Madrid and Barcelona. Using difference-in-differences estimation we estimate an average treatment effect for provinces with stops on the HSR line of 2.4% for economic output, 3.3% for numbers of firms, and 1.1% for labour productivity. We complement our DID results with a synthetic control analysis for Lleida and Tarragona, two provinces that we argue were assigned HSR stations largely due to their incidental location. We find that both the number of firms and labour productivity are substantially higher in these provinces than in their synthetic counterparts.