Bayesian break-point forecasting in parallel time series,with application to university admissions

A regular supply of applicants to Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario is provided by 65 high schools. Each high school can be characterized by a series of grading standards which change from year to year. To aid admissions decisions, it is desirable to forecast the current year's grading standards for all 65 high schools using grading standards estimated from past year's data. We develop and apply a Bayesian break-point time-series model that generates forecasts which involve smoothing across time for each school and smoothing across schools. “Break point” refers to a point in time which divides the past into the “old past” and the “recent past” where the yearly observations in the recent past are exchangeable with the observations in the year to be forecast. We show that this model works fairly well when applied to 11 years of Queen's University data. The model can be applied to other data sets with the parallel time-series structure and short history, and can be extended in several ways to more complicated structures.     

Performance models for unreliable flexible manufacturing systems

This paper deals with the analysis and application of queueing models for single and multi stage flexible manufacturing systems that are subject to resource failure. Exact results are derived for the single stage queueing system. Two approximations are presneted for the multi stage queueing system as a closed network. We validate the approximations by comparing their performance estimates against the exact global balance solution.     

Symbiotic mothers and infantilized only children: A subtype of single-parent family

One single-parent family pattern is the enmeshed mother/onlychild dyad. Women marry to have children, and then divorce, while mother and child live out the reciprocally gratifying symbiotic period. When these mothers hamper offspring moves toward separation-individuation, post-divorce difficulties bring them to treatment. These difficulties are distinct from those found in other single-parent families. Intervention can move mother and child from the prolonged symbiosis. Treatment stresses modification of low maternal selfesteem, and correction of pathogenic maternal behavior. Re-introduction of the father to the system can also free both mother and child for further growth.     

A family life cycle plan for delivering services to the developmentally handicapped

A treatment model for the developmentally handicapped child does more than meet crisis situations.     

The expanded role of nurse case managers

1. Effective nursing practice is responsive to the changing needs of clients. The community, rather than the hospital, has become the primary treatment setting in which the long-term mentally ill manage their daily activities. 2. The professional role of rehabilitative nurse case management can provide an opportunity for nurses to expand their roles and develop new career directions. 3. The primary nursing model provides an excellent foundation for acquiring the attitudes and skills necessary in the delivery of a comprehensive rehabilitative model of case management.     

Modified pseudo-likelihood estimator of the overdispersion parameter in Poisson mixture models

There are a variety of methods available for analyzing count data exhibiting extra-Poisson variation. Those based on quasi-likelihood, in particular, have gained tremendous popularity. In this paper, several moment estimators are compared. A new estimator, based on a modification of the pseudo-likelihood approach, is introduced and shown to perform very well when the overdispersion is not large, even if the sample size is very small.