Notional defined contributions (NDC): Solvency and risk in Spain

The aim of this article is twofold: to demonstrate the actuarial imbalance in the Spanish pension system in its current form; and to measure the degree of aggregate economic risk to which pensioners are exposed when applying formulas for the calculation of retirement pensions based on notional accounts. The model used generates scenarios for various periods encompassing some 10,000 different permutations of the macroeconomic indices needed to calculate such parameters as initial pension, earnings replacement rate, or internal rate of return and value at risk. The findings are analysed both objectively and subjectively. The main conclusions are that if the projections for the macroeconomic indices used bear only a minimal resemblance to reality, the pension system will accumulate further financial imbalance in the future that will force it either to reduce initial pensions considerably or to make some radical adjustments to the parameters. In terms of risk, for beneficiaries with high risk aversion the preferred formulas would be those based on future variations in wages with a constant pension amount in real terms; on the other hand, those less averse to risk would prefer formulas that generate a smaller initial pension but one which grows in real terms with subsequent changes in wage levels.     

Improvements over the duplicate performance method for outlier detection in categorical multivariate surveys

Summary The detection of errors and outliers is an important step in data processing, especially those errors arising from data entry operations because they are of the entire responsability of the data processing staff. The duplicate performance method, is commonly used as an attempt to detect such type of errors. It implies typically typing twice the same data without any special precedence. If the errors are uniformly distributed among individuals, retyping a fraction of the total will also remove typically the same fraction of the errors. A new method is presented, which is able to improve that procedure by sorting the records putting first the most unlikely ones. The ability of the present methodology has been tested by a Monte Carlo simulation, using an existing database of categorical answers of housing characteristics in Uruguay. At first, it has been randomly contaiminated, and after that, the proposed procedure applied. The results show that if a partial retyping is done following the proposed order about 50 % of the errors can be removed while keeping the retyping effort between 4 and 14% of the dataset, while to attain a similar result with the standard methodology 50% (on, average) of the database should be processed. The new ordering is based upon the unrotated Principal Component Analysis (PCA) transformation of the previously coded data. No special shape of the multivariate distribution function is assumed or required.     

Some issues related to the topological aggregation of preferences

This paper deals with the topological approach to social choice theory initiated by Chichilnisky. We study several issues concerning the existence and uniqueness of Chichilnisky rules defined on preference spaces. We show that on topological vector spaces the only additive, anonymous, and unanimous aggregation n-rule is the convex mean. We study the case of infinite agents and show that an infinite Chichilnisky rule might be considered as the limit of rules for finitely many agents. Finally, we show that under some restrictions on the preference space, the existence of a Chichilnisky rule for every finite case implies the existence of a weak Chichilnisky rule for the infinite case.     

Chilean Adaptation and Validation of the Fisher Divorce Adjustment Scale–Short Form

The aim of this study was to determine the psychometric properties of a short version of the Fisher Divorce Adjustment Scale (FDAS–SF; Fisher, 1978) in the Chilean context. Participants were 260 individuals who were divorced or separated. The FDAS–SF included 22 of the original 100 items, and its factorial structure was evaluated using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Instead of the 6 original subscales proposed by its author, the structure that showed the best fit to the data was composed of 5 subscales: self-worth, disentanglement from the ex-partner, anger, grief, and social trust. The social self-worth subscale was excluded. Reliability analyses revealed good internal consistency of the subscales and adequate convergent validity with depression, anxiety, stress, and life satisfaction. Given the psychometric properties of this short version, it can be concluded that the FDAS–SF can be used in the Chilean context to evaluate the adjustment to divorce and separation.     

Adult height and childhood disease

Taller populations are typically richer populations, and taller individuals live longer and earn more. In consequence, adult height has recently become a focus in understanding the relationship between health and wealth. We investigate the childhood determinants of population adult height, focusing on the respective roles of income and of disease. Across a range of European countries and the United States, we find a strong inverse relationship between postneonatal (ages 1 month to 1 year) mortality, interpreted as a measure of the disease and nutritional burden in childhood, and the mean height of those children as adults. Consistent with these findings, we develop a model of selection and stunting in which the early-life burden of undernutrition and disease not only is responsible for mortality in childhood but also leaves a residue of long-term health risks for survivors, risks that express themselves in adult height and in late-life disease. The model predicts that at sufficiently high mortality levels, selection can dominate scarring, leaving a taller population of survivors. We find evidence of this effect in the poorest and highest-mortality countries of the world, supplementing recent findings on the effects of the Great Chinese Famine.     

Building a new international is necessary and urgent

ABSTRACT

Samir Amin was one of the most creative Marxists, but also an orthodox, as his appeal for a new international proves, consistent with his defense of the socialist revolution against a decaying capitalist system, which threatens with the extinction of human civilization. However, in a contradictory way, if in the past the material conditions did not exist, they exist today, materializing in a distorted manner by capitalism, the organization of a revolutionary international leadership has never been so non-existent. This article begins by demonstrating the systemic conditions that require the proletariat to build a new International, the reasons for the current difficulty in achieving it; and, from the analysis of the most successful experience to date, the Third International, lessons are drawn for a future Fifth International.     

An echelon inventory-based single-stage cost function for a two-station tandem system

We propose an alternative cost-accounting function for inventory control problems on a make-to-stock setting. Our proposal is based on observing that the traditional holding and backlog parameters introduce some odd short term distortions on the inventory state space. Our single-stage cost function accounts for echelon inventories and possesses a pair of cost parameters for each echelon inventory variable, depending on whether it is positive or negative. With the modified cost-accounting function, we study a twostation tandem system producing a single product, and investigate how it compares with the performances obtained with the usual single-stage cost function. The results available so far show that the optimal policies approach a multi-echelon base stock structure for each machine. Also, the service levels achieved are better under the modified function without increasing the levels of finished goods inventory.