Space-time short- to medium-term wind speed forecasting

Accurate wind power forecasts depend on reliable wind speed forecasts. Numerical weather predictions utilize huge amounts of computing time, but still have rather low spatial and temporal resolution. However, stochastic wind speed forecasts perform well in rather high temporal resolution settings. They consume comparably little computing resources and return reliable forecasts, if forecasting horizons are not too long. In the recent literature, spatial interdependence is increasingly taken into consideration. In this paper we propose a new and quite flexible multivariate model that accounts for neighbouring weather stations’ information and as such, exploits spatial data at a high resolution. The model is applied to forecasting horizons of up to 1 day and is capable of handling a high resolution temporal structure. We use a periodic vector autoregressive model with seasonal lags to account for the interaction of the explanatory variables. Periodicity is considered and is modelled by cubic B-splines. Due to the model’s flexibility, the number of explanatory variables becomes huge. Therefore, we utilize time-saving shrinkage methods like lasso and elastic net for estimation. Particularly, a relatively newly developed iteratively re-weighted lasso and elastic net is applied that also incorporates heteroscedasticity. We compare our model to several benchmarks. The out-of-sample forecasting results show that the exploitation of spatial information increases the forecasting accuracy tremendously, in comparison to models in use so far.     

Ethische Kompetenz

From the author??s point of view, the term ??Ethical Competence?? is often used rather vaguely in the field. In a qualitative study of bank managers, preliminary definitions of ??Ethical Competence?? are related to the ??Theory of Planned Behavior?? (Fishbein and Ajzen). This enables the authors to analyze ??Ethical Competence?? more precisely??taking the concept of ??Moral Obligation?? (Kurland) into consideration as well. Factors such as behavioral beliefs (attitude towards the behavior), normative beliefs (subjective norms) and control beliefs (perceived behavioral control) are seen as significant in behavior in morally relevant situations. In addition, the authors formulate a hypothesis concerning the correlation of Ethical Competence and job satisfaction.     

Social exclusion or poverty individualisation? An empirical test of two recent and competing poverty theories

In recent years, two new theoretical perspectives on poverty in modern welfare societies have emerged: the perspective of ‘cumulative disadvantage’ and poverty individualisation. Both perspectives challenge traditional class-based poverty definitions. This article notes certain limitations that pertain to the relatively few empirical tests that have been performed to support these theories. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate that the results obtained depend largely on the type of poverty definition applied (income or deprivation), the actual data used (national or comparative) and the extent to which these data represent an observation period that is long enough to provide a reliable basis for testing the theories in question. The article concludes that because only few Danes experience long-term poverty and social exclusion, the combination of class and individual biography is important. In other words, structural conditions and, to a lesser degree, group risks drive individuals to the social margin.     

Boundary and Bias Correction in Kernel Hazard Estimation

A new class of local linear hazard estimators based on weighted least square kernel estimation is considered. The class includes the kernel hazard estimator of Ramlau-Hansen (1983), which has the same boundary correction property as the local linear regression estimator (see Fan & Gijbels, 1996). It is shown that all the local linear estimators in the class have the same pointwise asymptotic properties. We derive the multiplicative bias correction of the local linear estimator. In addition we propose a new bias correction technique based on bootstrap estimation of additive bias. This latter method has excellent theoretical properties. Based on an extensive simulation study where we compare the performance of competing estimators, we also recommend the use of the additive bias correction in applied work.     

Gruppendiskussionen in Internetforen

As it is widely acclaimed, the “Web 2.0” offers many opportunities for qualitative research. While qualitative online research is mainly associated with ethnographic approaches, this article is concerned with online focus groups. In particular, the new opportunities and challenges presented by conducting focus groups via message boards will be discussed. As a starting point, the basic differences between face-to-face and several online focus groups are outlined. The bulk of this article focuses on three distinctive features of message board focus groups and their methodological consequences. These are the written form and the lack of non-verbal cues, the asynchronous mode of communication and the technique of multithreading. Finally, it is shown that focus groups via message boards are rather to be treated as an alternative approach to social reality than as a variant of conventional focus groups. They generate data of a particular type which can be especially valuable for narrative and discursive approaches.     

Who benefits from labor market institutions? Evidence from surveys of life satisfaction

This paper investigates the welfare effects of labor market institutions, placing an emphasis on how the institutions’ effects are differentiated by socio-demographic subgroups. We study how life satisfaction is affected by employment protection and the level and duration of unemployment benefit payments. Using data for almost 370,000 individuals in ten European countries, 1975-2002, we find that more employment protection and a higher benefit replacement rate increase the life satisfaction of the average citizen. At the subgroup level, different segments of the population are affected differently by the two categories of labor market institutions. While employment protection is valued especially by employed persons of intermediate age, it is less beneficial for women/housewives and for older persons. More generous unemployment insurance is valued especially by these latter subgroups and by the unemployed.     

Die wahrgenommene Gerechtigkeit des eigenen Erwerbseinkommens: Geschlechtstypische Muster und die Bedeutung des Haushaltskontextes

The rise in female labor market participation and the growth of ??atypical?? employment arrangements has, over the last few decades, brought about a steadily decreasing percentage of households in which the man is the sole breadwinner, and a rising percentage of dual-earner households. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates how household contexts in which the traditional ??male breadwinner?? model still exists or has already been challenged affect individuals?? subjective evaluations of the justice of their personal earnings. In the first step we derive three criteria used by individuals to evaluate the fairness or justice of their personal earnings: compensation for services rendered, coverage of basic needs, and the opportunity to earn social approval. In the second step, we apply considerations from household economics and new approaches from gender research to explain why men??s and women??s evaluations of justice are determined to a considerable degree by the specific situation within their household. The assumptions derived regarding gender-specific patterns in justice attitudes are then tested on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) from 2007 and 2005. The results support our central thesis that gender-specific patterns in the evaluation of personal earnings are both reduced and increased in dual-earner households. They are reduced because women in dual-income households tend to have higher income expectations that challenge the existing gender wage gap. At the same time, gender-specific patterns are increased because men evaluate the equity of their personal income in relation to their ability to fulfill traditional gender norms and thus their capacity to live up to corresponding notions of ??masculinity.??     

A follower-centric approach to the vision integration process

Leaders increasingly understand the importance of involving followers in the vision implementation process. Viewing vision as a guiding framework that may or may not be adopted by followers throughout the organization, we test a model of the leader–follower communication processes involved in linking vision with follower work behaviors and decisions. Using a cross-sectional research design, we examine the basic relationships in a hypothesized model of the vision integration process. Employees from a health maintenance organization (HMO) (N = 340) completed surveys concerning leader–follower communication, perceptions of the company's vision, and its integration into their work behaviors. Not surprisingly, leader–follower communication regarding vision is crucial. More importantly, how the vision is understood and integrated by followers into work behaviors and decisions significantly predicts commitment, job satisfaction, and supervisory ratings of performance. Based on these findings, a more follower-centered conceptualization of vision is offered.