How Asymptomatic Transmission Influences Mitigation and Suppression Strategies during a Pandemic

Asymptomatic transmission complicates any public health strategies to combat a pandemic, which proved especially accurate in the case of COVID-19. Although asymptomatic cases are not unique to COVID-19, the high asymptomatic case rate raised many problems for developing effective public health interventions. The current modeling effort explored how asymptomatic transmission might impact pandemic responses in four key areas: isolation procedures, changes in reproduction rate, the potential for reduced transmission from asymptomatic cases, and social adherence to public health measures. A high rate of asymptomatic cases effectively requires large-scale public health suppression and mitigation procedures given that quarantine procedures alone could not prevent an outbreak for a virus such as SARS-CoV-2. This problem only becomes worse without lowering the effective reproduction rate, and even assuming the potential for reduced transmission, any virus with a high degree of asymptomatic transmission will likely produce a pandemic. Finally, there is a concern that asymptomatic individuals will also refuse to adhere to public health guidance. Analyses indicate that, given certain assumptions, even half of the population adhering to public health guidance could reduce the peak and flatten the curve by over 90%. Taken together, these analyses highlight the importance of taking asymptomatic cases into account when modeling viral spread and developing public health intervention strategies.     

Caseworkers as a source of hope leading to perceptions of academic success for transitional age foster youth

Research among adolescent samples has consistently demonstrated that a hopeful mindset is associated with resilience and global well-being. Further, research suggests that hope is influenced from an early age from connections with supportive caregivers. However, because older youth in the child welfare system may lack supportive caregivers, alternative sources of hope may be needed. To test a theory that supportive child welfare caseworkers can serve as external sources of hope, we conducted a cross-sectional study of youth in the child welfare system from a single state (N = 149). Using surveys with established scales to measure the variables of interest, the study tested a structural equation model of (1) youth's external hope in their caseworker as a driver of (2) internal hope in themselves leading to (3) more positive perceptions of academic success. Perceptions of academic success were chosen as the final consequence of the model because academic success has been linked to many other variables of well-being across the lifespan. The results indicate that the proposed structural model fits the data well (χ² = 327.9, df = 150; P < 0.001; root-mean-square error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.09 [90% confidence interval – CI: 0.076, 0.103]; comparative fit index [CFI]: 0.920; standardized root-mean-square residual [SRMR]: 0.05). The results indicate that youths' hope in themselves had origins in external hope in the caseworker. Moreover, the final consequence was an increase in perceptions of academic success. Such results have implications by revealing how case management services can positively influence foster youths' hope and thereby influence their academic success.     

Longitudinal links of parental solicitation,knowledge, and peer approval with deviance during early adolescence

The current study examined growth-to-growth associations of parental solicitation, knowledge, and peer approval with deviance during early adolescence, using a 4-wave, 18-month self-reported longitudinal data set from 570 Czech early adolescents (58.4% female; M_age = 12.43 years, SD = 0.66 at baseline). Unconditional growth model tests provided evidence of significant changes in the three parenting behaviors and in deviance over time. Multivariate growth model tests showed that declines in maternal knowledge were associated with increases in deviance, while greater increases in parental peer approval were associated with slower increases in deviance. Findings provide evidence of dynamic changes in parental solicitation, knowledge, and peer approval over time, as well as in deviance; additionally, they importantly show how parental knowledge and peer approval covary developmentally with deviance.     

Sexual minority youth in romantic relationships: Associations with youth well-being

This study investigated differences in depressive symptoms, loneliness, and self-esteem for monosexual (lesbian, gay) and plurisexual (bisexual, pansexual, queer) sexual minority youth (SMY) by relationship status (single, partnered) and relationship configuration (same-gender partner, different-gender partner). Participants included 338 SMY (M_age = 19.10 years) who reported on their relationship status, partner's gender identity, well-being, and ability to confide in partner about LGBTQ issues. Results indicated that for plurisexual youth, single status was associated with greater loneliness; plurisexual youth with same-gender partners reported fewer depressive symptoms and marginally greater ability to confide in their partner about LGBTQ issues than those with different-gender partners. Findings reveal similarities across SMY while also highlighting some unique challenges among plurisexual youth with different-gender partners.     

A meta-analytic framework to adjust for bias in external control studies

While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects in medical research, there is increasing use of and interest in using real-world data for drug development. One such use case is the construction of external control arms for evaluation of efficacy in single-arm trials, particularly in cases where randomization is either infeasible or unethical. However, it is well known that treated patients in non-randomized studies may not be comparable to control patients—on either measured or unmeasured variables—and that the underlying population differences between the two groups may result in biased treatment effect estimates as well as increased variability in estimation. To address these challenges for analyses of time-to-event outcomes, we developed a meta-analytic framework that uses historical reference studies to adjust a log hazard ratio estimate in a new external control study for its additional bias and variability. The set of historical studies is formed by constructing external control arms for historical RCTs, and a meta-analysis compares the trial controls to the external control arms. Importantly, a prospective external control study can be performed independently of the meta-analysis using standard causal inference techniques for observational data. We illustrate our approach with a simulation study and an empirical example based on reference studies for advanced non-small cell lung cancer. In our empirical analysis, external control patients had lower survival than trial controls (hazard ratio: 0.907), but our methodology is able to correct for this bias. An implementation of our approach is available in the R package ecmeta .     

Who Gets Custody Now? Dramatic Changes in Children’s Living Arrangements After Divorce

This article reexamines the living arrangements of children following their parents’ divorce, using Wisconsin Court Records, updating an analysis that showed relatively small but significant increases in shared custody in the late 1980s and early 1990s. These changes have accelerated markedly in the intervening years: between 1988 and 2008, the proportion of mothers granted sole physical custody fell substantially, the proportion of parents sharing custody increased dramatically, and father–sole custody remained relatively stable. We explore changes in the correlates of alternative custody outcomes, showing that some results from the earlier analysis still hold (for example, cases with higher total family income are more likely to have shared custody), but other differences have lessened (shared-custody cases have become less distinctive as they have become more common). Despite the considerable changes in marriage and divorce patterns over this period, we do not find strong evidence that the changes in custody are related to changes in the characteristics of families experiencing a divorce; rather, changes in custody may be the result of changes in social norms and the process by which custody is determined.     

Anatomy of a Municipal Triumph: New York City's Upsurge in Life Expectancy

Over the period 1990–2010, the increase in life expectancy for males in New York City was 6.0 years greater than for males in the United States. The female relative gain was 3.9 years. Male relative gains were larger because of extremely rapid reductions in mortality from HIV/AIDS and homicide, declines that reflect effective municipal policies and programs. Declines in drug‐ and alcohol‐related deaths also played a significant role in New York City's advance, but every major cause of death contributed to its relative improvement. By 2010, New York City had a life expectancy that was 1.9 years greater than that of the US. This difference is attributable to the high representation of immigrants in New York's population. Immigrants to New York City, and to the United States, have life expectancies that are among the highest in the world. The fact that 38 percent of New York's population consists of immigrants, compared to only 14 percent in the United States, accounts for New York's exceptional standing in life expectancy in 2010. In fact, US‐born New Yorkers have a life expectancy below that of the United States itself.     

Understanding the socio-economic distribution of multiple deprivation: An application of self-organising maps

In this paper we seek to contribute to recent efforts to develop and implement multi-dimensional approaches to social exclusion by applying self-organising maps (SOMs) to a set of material deprivation indicators from the Irish component of EU-SILC. The first stage of our analysis involves the identification of sixteen clusters that confirm the multi-dimensional nature of deprivation in contemporary Ireland and the limitations of focusing solely on income. In going beyond this mapping stage, we consider both patterns of socio-economic differentiation in relation to cluster membership and the extent to which such membership contributes to our understanding of economic stress. Our analysis makes clear the continuing importance of traditional forms of stratification relating to factors such as income, social class and housing tenure in accounting for patterns of multiple deprivation. However, it also confirms the role of acute life events and life cycle and location influences. Most importantly, it demonstrates that conclusions relating to the relative impact of different kinds of socio-economic influences are highly dependent on the form of deprivation being considered. Our analysis suggests that debates relating to the extent to which poverty and social exclusion have become individualized should take particular care to distinguish between different kinds of outcomes. Further analysis demonstrates that the SOM approach is considerably more successful than a comparable latent class analysis in identifying those exposed to subjective economic stress.     

Social Development in Hong Kong: Development Issues Identified by Social Development Index (SDI)

Surviving the aftermaths of the Asian Financial Crisis and SARS in 2003, Hong Kong’s economy has re-gained its momentum and its economic growth has been quite remarkable too in recent few years. Nevertheless, as reflected by the Social Development Index (SDI), economic growth in Hong Kong does not seem to have benefited the people of the city at large as we see social qualities such as cohesion, security, equity, and empowerment are gradually eroded. This paper aims to summarize the current state of social development in Hong Kong based on the SDI-2008 and identify the major social, political and economic challenges that are confronted by Hong Kong. Based on the findings, a range of policy options proposed for promoting a more balanced approach to social and economic development are discussed. The article illustrates the utility of social indicators research such as the SDI in assessing quality of life and assisting related social planning initiatives in Asian communities such as Hong Kong.     

Recent European fertility patterns: Fitting curves to ‘distorted’ distributions

Recent patterns of fertility in Europe show marked differences between countries. Recent United Kingdom and Irish fertility curves show ‘distortions’ in terms of a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility, distinct from the smoother curves of other European countries. These patterns may not be adequately described by mathematical functions used by previous studies to model fertility curves. A mixture model with two component distributions may be more appropriate. The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries. While the simple Hadwiger model fits recent period age-specific fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility require a mixture Hadwiger model. Some of the parameters of the Hadwiger models appear to be related to familiar demographic indices. The simple and mixture Hadwiger models appear useful in describing and comparing fertility patterns across European countries.