Comrade Mao Ze-dong's contribution to Marxist theory on population--in commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the birth of the Chinese Communist Party]

Is it good or bad to have a large population in China? Comrade Mao Ze-dong said "it is good and it is also bad." Our population is an asset, and we should use this asset and wisdom in our nation's "Four Modernizations" program. On the other hand we should control the population growth and reduce the resulting burden. Marxism recognizes 2 types of production, material production and human production. Both are interrelated, mutually dependent, and beneficial. Comrade Mao criticized concepts and practices that disregard the interrelationship of these 2 types of production. According to Comrade Mao both types of production should be included in the national economic plan, and the proportions of material production and human production should be the basic proportions of our socialistic economic development. Comrade Mao mentioned that population growth should be planned to fit and benefit social development. He suggested establishment of a series of family planning offices or committees to study and implement the family planning program, to develop a longterm plan, to consider the people's wishes in family planning, to meet the people's requirements and desires, to educate people about family planning, and to recommend government funds for the program.     

Changes in wealth in the United States, 1962–1983

A simulation model is developed to account for observed changes in mean household wealth both overall and by age cohort over the 1962–1983 period in the United States. There are three major findings. First, capital gains are the major factor explaining overall wealth changes and account for 77% of the simulated growth in wealth over the entire period. Second, for cohorts under age 40, inheritance and inter vivos transfers dominate observed changes in wealth. Indeed, the oldest age groups appear to have transferred sizable amounts of their wealth to younger generations inter vivos, raising the wealth of these younger groups substantially above what it would be based on saving. Third, while differences in portfolio composition favored the younger cohorts over this period, such differences do not explain a large portion of the great variation in real wealth changes by cohort over the two decade period.The authors wish to thank Kevin Camerlo, Maury Gittleman and Kim Hiskey for research and programming assistance.     

Cohort effects in the educational attainment of second generation immigrants in Germany: An analysis of census data

Even though second generation immigrants make up ever increasing population shares in industrialized countries we know little about their social integration and wellbeing. This study focuses on the educational attainment of German born children of immigrants. Their schooling success still lags behind that of natives. This paper investigates school attendance and completed degrees of second generation immigrants and finds that even after controlling for characteristics the educational gap remains large and significant. The available evidence suggests that this group as a whole does not assimilate to native educational standards and instead increasingly falls behind.This research was completed while the author was guest at the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn, Germany. I am grateful for IZAs hospitality and particularly for the help of Thomas K. Bauer. I thank the anonymous referees and the editors for very helpful comments. Responsible editors: David Card and Christoph M. Schmidt.     

The impact of immigration on the internal migration of natives and immigrants

In this paper we examine the internal migratory response, by native-born non-Hispanic white men and foreign-born men in the United States, to recent immigration. Our analysis does not support the claim that natives have made a migratory response to recent immigration. Native-born men and foreign-born men were less likely to leave states that received large numbers of immigrants in the 1980s than they were to leave other states, and native-born men had less propensity toward out-migration than did foreign-born men. Out-migration was most likely to be deterred if recent immigrants originated in Europe or Asia. Although native-born non-Hispanic white men showed a tendency toward out-migration if recent immigrants originated in Latin America or the Caribbean, this result was insignificant after we controlled for state economic and regional context.     

Quality of life and city size: An exploratory study of Nigeria

This paper examines the variations in the quality of life at the relatively neglected inter-urban scale in a developing nation. Based on a sample survey of 3800 heads of households in Nigerian cities ranked into three categories: large, medium and small, the study found that level-of-living is related to city size, with the residents of large cities having a higher quality of life than those in the medium and small cities.     

The family planning work in Yiyang prefecture as suggested by part of the data of the sample fertility survey]

The National Committee on Family Planning conducted a sample survey of fertility in the Yi-yang area in September 1982. The survey was focused on the marriage and fertility status of women between the ages of 15 and 67. Results from this survey show that early marriage is still very popular. Only 40% of those surveyed delayed their marriage to a later age. There is a need to educate the people on the benefits of late marriage. In addition, statistics show that the average fertility rate for a woman was 6.8 children in 1970 and 2.35 children in 1982. This recent figure is still too high when compared with the under 1.2 figure suggested by the central government. Among the total number surveyed, only 77% have taken birth control measures, and the other 23% still have not taken any birth control measures. The phenomenon shows that popular education on late marriage and having children at a later age is still urgently needed in order to further reduce the fertility rate. Married couples of childbearing age should be taught effective birth control measures and knowledge of eugenics with better education for the next generation. In this way, the masses may participate actively and positively in the national family planning campaign.     

Migration in the Southeast

Between 1940 and 1960 the Southeast experienced both economic and demographic revolutions. They were interrelated in many ways. Agriculture was mechanized and reorganized making millions of farmers and farm laborers surplus. The natural assets of the region were developed and industry grew more rapidly than in other regions. There were marked changes in the labor force, a rapid increase in the proportion of women employed and a decrease in the proportion of Negroes. The level of family income rose faster than in other regions.Five and three quarter million persons were transferred from the farm population. A net of 2.7 million left the region and 3 million were absorbed in nonfarm areas within the region. In 1960 52 percent of the population was in cities. Increase was especially fast in metropolitan urban areas, mostly in suburbs. There were also substantial increases in the rural nonfarm areas. Small cities as a group showed no net in-migration. Among the net migrants out of the region the ratio was 4 colored to1 white.The age and sex distribution was warped, especially below age 30, slowing down the early marriage rate and the crude birth rate.The projection of the trend which was being followed in the early 1960s indicates that the regional rate of increase may overtake that of the rest of the country, being particularly rapid in the young adult and adolescent ages.For the purposes of this study the Southeast includes: South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. These were originally the heaviest cotton producing states and the heart of the sharecropping area where the reorganization of the economy was particularly disruptive.     

Nuptiality and fertility of birth cohorts

The impact of changes in age patterns of nuptiality on the net reproduction rate is examined using life table techniques and assuming that age-specific fertility within marriage and fertility outside of marriage are fixed. In the second section, a standardization technique is used to investigate the impact of changes in nuptiality on age-cumulative measures of marital fertility. Examples using data for selected generations of Australian women demonstrate the extent to which recent changes in average completed family size in Australia were affected by changing nuptiality patterns.     

TRADE QUOTAS AND BUYER POWER,WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE E.U. NATURAL GAS MARKET

We consider a market in which domestic buyers negotiate contracts with foreign sellers, and explore how trade quotas can help to increase the buyers' countervailing power. We use the Shapley value to describe bargaining power and the distribution of the trade surplus in such a bilateral oligopoly. By exploiting strategic externalities among the buyers, bilateral trade quotas can improve the buyers' bargaining positions. In contrast, aggregate trade restrictions on all buyers' trade never improve buyer surplus. Minimum quotas on imports from fringe suppliers can benefit nonaffected buyers, as these enjoy positive externalities. We apply these insights to the E.U. market for natural gas and show that the effects of trade quotas on E.U. gas importers' power can be significant.