Policies for knowledge refreshing in databases

Knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) provides organizations necessary tools to sift through vast data stores to extract knowledge. This process supports and improves decision making in organizations. In this paper, we introduce and define the concept of knowledge refreshing, a critical step to ensure the quality and timeliness of knowledge discovered in a KDD process. This has been unfortunately overlooked by prior researchers. Specifically, we study knowledge refreshing from the perspective of when to refresh knowledge so that the total system cost over a time horizon is minimized. We propose a model for knowledge refreshing, and a dynamic programming methodology for developing optimal strategies. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology using data from a real world application. The proposed methodology provides decision makers guidance in running KDD effectively and efficiently.     

Supply Networks as a Complex Adaptive System: Toward Simulation‐Based Theory Building on Evolutionary Decision Making

In this article, we examine how the firms embedded in supply networks engage in decision making over time. The supply networks as a complex adaptive system are simulated using cellular automata (CA) through a dynamic evolution of cooperation (i.e., “voice” decision) and defection (i.e., “exit” decision) among supply network agents (i.e., firms). Simple local rules of interaction among firms generate complex patterns of cooperation and defection decisions in the supply network. The incentive schemes underlying decision making are derived through different configurations of the payoff‐matrix based on the game theory argument. The prisoner's dilemma game allows capturing the localized decision‐making process by rational agents, and the CA model allows the self‐organizing outcome to emerge. By observing the evolution of decision making by cooperating and defecting agents, we offer testable propositions regarding relationship development and distributed nature of governance mechanisms for managing supply networks.     

Numerical solution to stochastic partial differential equation with variable repair rate

ABSTRACT

In this paper, a numerical solution technique to stochastic partial differential equations in reliability engineering is presented. The method is based upon finite difference discretization of the governing equations for the Markovian reliability model. In realistic situations, the repair rates and failure rates of engineering system are variable. Such variable repair and failure rates are difficult to account in reliability modeling. The novelty in this work is to present a numerical method to easily take into consideration such variables and give an accurate prediction of reliability measures of engineering systems.     

Estimation in a truncated bivariate poisson distribution

Moment estimators for parameters in a truncated bivariate Poisson distribution are derived in Hamdan (1972) for the special case of λ₁ = λ₂, Where λ₁, λ₂ are the marginal means. Here we derive the maximum likelihood estimators for this special case. The information matrix is also obtained which provides asymptotic covariance matrix of the maximum likelihood estimators. The asymptotic covariance matrix of moment estimators is also derived. The asymptotic efficiency of moment estimators is computed and found to be very low.     

Detecting outliers: power and some other considerations

The general problem of outlier detection and five recursive outlier detection procedures considered in the study are defined. The methods to compute powers, probabilities of detecting ≥1 outliers, and >1 observations including at least one inlier as outliers are computed and results are discussed. Results show that no procedure is most powerful when the actual number of outlier present in the sample is exactly, under-, and overestimated. The probabilities of inliers being detected as outliers are also substantial particularly when outliers occur only on one side of the sample     

A modification to some proposed tests in relation to the problem of switching regression models

Several tests proposed to deal with the problem that a switch occurs in a regression model are discussed and an attempt Is made to improve them through a very natural modification, The modified tests are Illustrated using data given by Quandt where a switch is present     

Confidence intervals and tests on the variance ratio in random models with two variance components

The LM test is modified to test any value of the ratio of two variance components in a mixed effects linear model with two variance components. The test is exact, so it can be used to construct exact confidence intervals on this ratio.Exact Neyman-Pearson (NP) tests on the variance ratio are described.Their powers provide attainable upper bounds on powers of tests on the variance ratio.Efficiencies of LM tests, which include ANOVA tests, and NP tests are compared for unbalanced, random, one-way ANOVA models.Confidence intervals corresponding to LM tests and NP tests are described.