Bayesian Estimation of the Log–linear Exponential Regression Model with Censorship and Collinearity

In this work, a simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of Bayesian estimators for the log–linear exponential regression model under different levels of censoring and degrees of collinearity for two covariates. The diffuse normal, independent Student-t and multivariate Student-t distributions are considered as prior distributions and to draw from the posterior distributions, the Metropolis algorithm is implemented. Also, the results are compared with the maximum likelihood estimators in terms of the mean squared error, coverages and length of the credibility and confidence intervals.     

Stimulating Early Adoption of New Products through Channel Disintegration

Conventional wisdom holds that adding layers to a distribution channel is detrimental to the interests of consumers and the channel that serves them. In contrast, our study indicates that a disintegrated channel structure can be desirable in some instances. When consumers have valuation uncertainty prior to consuming a product, having an independent retailer may boost both channel profits and consumer surplus relative to direct selling by an integrated firm. The quandary in selling such products is that after early adopters make their purchase decisions, the seller may alter prices in such a way that makes early adopters' decisions appear suboptimal in hindsight. Since the seller cannot credibly commit to future prices, customers are reluctant to adopt early, choosing instead to delay their purchase decisions. This delay is certainly detrimental to the interest of the distribution channel, but the rejection of the early adoption discount can equally reduce consumer surplus. This problem can be mitigated by introducing an independent retailer. The familiar double marginalization “problem” from channel disintegration can credibly assure customers of unfavorable future prices for late adoption. This assurance attracts more customers to seek early adoption, leading to lower overall retail prices, increased supply, and higher consumer and producer surpluses.     

Quality Testing and Product Rationing by Input Suppliers

Quality testing by suppliers has significant ramifications for downstream supply chain participants and retail consumers. This article focuses on such implications accounting for the fact that suppliers often enjoy discretion in quality testing and reporting. Under a discretionary testing and reporting environment, we show that a supplier can improve the market's perception of product quality by engaging in self‐imposed production cuts. Production cuts dampen supplier incentives to engage in excessive quality testing, putting the supplier and the market on a more equal information footing. This reduces the market's need to skeptically discount product quality to protect itself. The improved market perception, then, reduces quality testing demand, introducing cost savings. The result that costly production cuts can improve quality perceptions indicates that the groundwork for influencing market perceptions may have to be laid upfront, even prior to acquiring private information, providing a contrast to routine signaling models.     

Distributed Development and Product Line Decisions

Distributed product development is becoming increasingly prevalent in a number of industries. We study how the global distribution of product development impacts the profit‐maximizing product line that a firm offers. Specifically, we formulate a model to understand the linkage between cost arbitrage as a driver of distributed development and consequent market implications such as customer perceived quality loss to remotely developed products. Analysis of the model reveals that a firm should expand the product line for a development‐intensive good only at intermediate values of cost advantage and quality loss. We modify the base model to include development capacity constraints as a driver of distributed development and find that the results are robust to this change. Our analysis affirms the need for product managers to incorporate the implications of distributed development in making their product line design decision.     

Estimating turning points using polynomial regression

SUMMARY This paper describes a method for estimating regime switches in non-monotonic relationships, using polynomial regressions. Data from the UK financial services industry are used to illustrate the technique. The methodology provides a means of statistically ascertaining the existence of turning points, as well as a means of locating them, should they exist. While the methodology is most suited to applications that involve cross-sectional data, it may also be useful in short-horizon time series turning point prediction.     

Decentralizing Social Services in Israel

This paper describes an attempt by the Israeli government to decentralize social services. Special attention is focused on the initiation of this planned effort of a highly centralized state. First, the Israeli culture is analyzed in terms of the delegation of authority and empowerment of citizens. Second, the principles of this planned change are summarized and results of two evaluation studies are presented. Several possible causes for the lack of success in decentralizing social services are suggested, followed by comments on the future of decentralization of social services in Israel.     

Social Work Education and Direct Practice in the Computer Age

Abstract

This paper assesses the mission of social work education in the electronic information age. Educators must prepare students to use computers in practice, develop practice-relevant software, and protect and empower those who might be victimized by information technology. Issues and tasks associated with each of these areas are discussed in detail.