Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

THE ANSWERING MACHINE POSES MANY QUESTIONS FOR TELEPHONE SURVEY RESEARCHERS

The proliferation of the telephone answering machine raisesa number of questions about the continued efficiency of thetelephone as a data-gathering mechanism. The most critical ofthese is what effect the use of these machines might have onestablishing contact with potential respondents. If individualsroutinely use these machines to screen calls, then their accessibilityto telephone survey researchers will be restricted. A secondquestion is the degree to which respondents who own answeringmachines and are reachable are likely to participate in a survey.A third question is the extent to which the incidence of theanswering machine as a response disposition might vary by thetime of calling and the respondent's place of residence. Thefindings of this study, based on a nationwide survey, pointto a significant proportion of answering machine owners beingreachable and willing to participate. Furthermore, the answeringmachine appears to be in use more on weekends than on weekdayevenings and in more urbanized areas than in areas with fewerinhabitants.     

Modelling data from single-photon emission computerized tomography

The completely random character of radioactive disintegration provides the basis of a strong justification for a Poisson linear model for single-photon emission computed tomography data, which can be used to produce reconstructions of isotope densities, whether by maximum likelihood or Bayesian methods. However, such a model requires the construction of a matrix of weights, which represent the mean rates of arrival at each detector of photons originating from each point within the body space. Two methods of constructing these weights are discussed, and reconstructions resulting from phantom and real data are presented.     

Reactions to Job Content Plateaus: Examining Role Ambiguity and Hierarchical Plateaus as Moderators

Plateauing research often reveals a negative relationship between job content plateauing (i.e., lacking challenge in one's job) and work attitudes. This study explores situations where job content plateauing is associated with fewer negative work attitudes, revealing role ambiguity (i.e., being unclear about job duties and responsibilities) and hierarchical plateauing (i.e., low likelihood of promotions) as moderators of the job content plateau‐work attitude relationship. Specifically, job content plateaued employees reported greater job satisfaction and organizational commitment if they were not also experiencing a hierarchical plateau. Job content plateaued employees also reported greater job satisfaction when role ambiguity was low.     

Between Spatial and Social Segregation among Immigrants: The Case of Immigrants from the FSU in Israel

Studies on immigrants' residential concentration have reported mixed findings. Some have argued that immigrants' residential concentration is a necessary step in the process of their social integration because there the newcomers find housing and employment opportunities as well as social support. As they learn the language and improve their socioeconomic status, they move to neighborhoods where they share space with the native population. Others have argued that the ethnic neighborhood delays the process of social integration in the new society because it nurtures informal ethnic social networks that provide incomplete information and retard the process of language acquisition. The study reported here investigated the effect of motivations, perceptions of attitudes of the host society, acculturation and socioeconomic factors on immigrants' residential concentration. It also sought to expand previous research by examining the relationship between immigrants'residential concentration and social relationships with nonimmigrants. Data for the study were collected in 1999 through a survey of immigrants from the FSU who had settled in one northern city in Israel after 1989. The results show a negative relationship of socioeconomic status and fluency in Hebrew with the percentage of immigrants residing in a given neighborhood. The higher the socioeconomic status and the more fluent the immigrant in Hebrew, the lower the percentage of immigrants in his or her neighborhood. Immigrants who expressed a proactive motivation for migration resided in neighborhoods with a low percentage of immigrants. Immigrants' residential concentration was not found to be related to the development of social relationships with the local population. The implications of the findings are discussed.     

Dealing with Toxicity in the Risk Society: The Case of the Hamilton,Ontario Plastics Recycling Fire*

Une perspective de la construction sociale sert de cadre a l'analyse des controverses sur la gestion des risques qui ont été provoquées à la suite d'un incendie majeur dans une usine de recyclage de matières plastiques à Hamilton, en Ontario. En mettant l'accent sur les processus de réclamation au c?ur de l'interaction entre les représen‐tants du gouvernement, les acteurs environnementaux, les experts techniques et les résidants, il a été révélé qu'un accent trop limité aux questions d'ordre technique avait mené a l'exclusion des préoccupations fondées sur la rationalité culturelle ayant ainsi entraine un cadre d'interaction très litigieux divisant profondément. Les conséquences des conclusions empiriques de la thése de la société des risques ainsi que de la théorie sur la communication des risques sont explorées. A social construction perspective is applied in the analysis of the risk management controversies that arose in response to a large toxic fire that occurred at a Hamilton, Ontario plastics recycling facility. By focussing on the claimsmaking processes involved in the interaction of government officials, environmental movement actors, technical experts, and residents, it was found that an overly narrow focus on technical matters led to the exclusion of lay concerns based on cultural rationality, thereby resulting in a very contentious and divisive setting for interaction. Implications of the empirical findings for the risk society thesis and risk communication theory are explored.     

Betrayal and repetition: Understanding aggression in sexually abused girls

Betrayal by a significant object is seen as primary in causing behavioral and emotional disturbances in incest victims, leading to a pervasive identification with the aggressor and disturbances in object relations development. Identification with the aggressor is understood not as a uniform defense mobilized against a specific affect but as a complex compromise formation which defends against anxiety, while also providing libidinal, aggressive and superego gratifications. Far from simply attempting to overcome the past, identifications thus preserve affects that have become pleasurable and self-defining. Two case studies of adolescent girls illustrate how treatment can help victims recognize and begin to forego the sadomasochistic pleasure derived from these identifications, a relinquishment necessary for true mastery.     

The Role of Cancer Risk in the Regulation of Industrial Pollution

The extent of carcinogen regulation under existing U.S. environmental statutes is assessed by developing measures of the scope and stringency of regulation. While concern about cancer risk has played an important political role in obtaining support for pollution control programs, it has not provided the predominant rationale for most regulatory actions taken to date. Less than 20% of all standards established to limit concentrations of chemicals in various media address carcinogens. Restrictions on chemical use are more frequently based on concerns about noncancer human health or ecological effects. Of the chemicals in commercial use which have been identified as potential human carcinogens on the basis of rodent bioassays, only a small proportion are regulated. There is an inverse relationship between the scope of regulatory coverage and the stringency of regulatory requirements: the largest percentages of identified carcinogens are affected by the least stringent requirements, such as information disclosure. Standards based on de minimis cancer risk levels have been established for only 10% of identified carcinogens and are restricted to one medium: water. Complete bans on use have affected very few chemicals. The general role that carcinogenicity now plays in the regulatory process is not dramatically different from that of other adverse human health effects: if a substance is identified as a hazard, it may eventually be subject to economically achievable and technically feasible restrictions.     

New Voices in Iceland. Parents and Adult Children: juggling supports and choices in time and space

This paper deals with parents' perspectives and experiences of bringing up children with a variety of impairments in Iceland, and how they impact the young disabled adults' approach to the status of adulthood. The paper is based on a qualitative study that explored perspectives and experiences of 36 young disabled adults (16-24 years old), their parents, friends and teachers. The purpose of this paper is to share themes related to patterns of parents' reactions and choices when coming to terms with parenting a disabled child, the support they found from their social network and professionals, and their sons or daughters' subsequent views of themselves and their prospects as young adults. The paper includes different perspectives on adulthood and the extent to which the young disabled people expect to reach that status or remain as 'eternal youth' enmeshed in segregated services. Findings show that the type and nature of early support for parents of disabled children is critical for the young adults' approaching adulthood in regular society or expecting to remain in the limbo of 'eternal youth' within segregated settings. Early 'betrayals' may, however, be revisited at each subsequent transition point. Furthermore, parents and their disabled children who struggled for social inclusion could obtain full active membership in society, even against social and physical barriers, and medically defined disability labels.