Empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the mean of a population containing many zero values

If a population contains many zero values and the sample size is not very large, the traditional normal approximation‐based confidence intervals for the population mean may have poor coverage probabilities. This problem is substantially reduced by constructing parametric likelihood ratio intervals when an appropriate mixture model can be found. In the context of survey sampling, however, there is a general preference for making minimal assumptions about the population under study. The authors have therefore investigated the coverage properties of nonparametric empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the population mean. They show that under a variety of hypothetical populations, these intervals often outperformed parametric likelihood intervals by having more balanced coverage rates and larger lower bounds. The authors illustrate their methodology using data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey for the year 2000.     

小额信贷之违约概率模型:特别考虑异质性

在新巴塞尔资本协议(New Basel Capital Accord)对金融全球化的冲击及金融机构改善资产质量及合并政策的影响下,我国台湾地区金融业进入激烈合并竞争的时代.许多银行颇受降低逾放比率及增加净值报酬率与资产报酬率两难之困扰.消费性信用贷款产品利差大、风险分散,是金融机构授信经营极重要的产品.实证结果显示,采用世代研究(cohort study)建立之模型对样本数据之拟合程度较个案对照研究法(case-control study)的解释变异量为佳,且较符合新巴塞尔资本协议规定及科学程序.虽然Logistic 回归模型在建立逾期概率模型上广泛地被使用,但要求存在于同构型的变异数Var=np(1-p)假设上,且在数据分析上常因为出现变异数之异质性问题,故可采用调整变异数异质性之方法.     

俄罗斯东正教的社会整合与道德教化作用研究

俄罗斯是一个有着深刻宗教情结的民族.东正教作为文化现象和意识形态,深深根植于俄罗斯民众的意识里,浓浓地融入俄罗斯民族的精神中,深刻地影响着俄国的历史与现实.为实现国家统一并加强皇权,以君权神授为宗旨的基督教作为最有力的思想武器被罗斯统治者"请入"罗斯.至此,无论是在鞑靼蒙古人入侵时期,还是在第一、二次卫国战争等俄苏历史的紧要关头,俄罗斯东正教均发挥了其社会整合与道德教化作用,并在促进国家统一、弘扬爱国主义传统、凝聚民族精神、规范民众道德和维护社会稳定等方面做出了积极而重要的历史贡献.     

《汉语大字典》书证疏误举例

《汉语大字典》在义项的书证方面存在一些疏误,内容涉及书证欠妥、书证有误、引文失误、一例两用等问题。     

Form Perception of Partly Occluded Shapes in 4‐Month‐Old Infants

Two habituation experiments were conducted to investigate how 4‐month‐old infants perceive partly occluded shapes. In the first experiment, we presented a simple, partly occluded shape to the infants until habituation was reached. Then we showed either a probable completion (one that would be predicted on the basis of both local and global cues) or an improbable completion. Longer looking times were found for the improbably completed shape (compared to probable and control conditions), suggesting that the probable shape was perceived during partial occlusion. In the second experiment, infants were habituated to more ambiguous partly occluded shapes, where local and global cues would result in different completions. For adults, the percept of these shapes is usually dominated by global influences. However, after habituation the infants looked longer at the globally completed shapes. These results suggest that by the age of 4 months, infants are able to infer the perceptual completion of partly occluded shapes, but for more ambiguous shapes, this completion seems to be dominated by local influences.     

教师人格研究及其对新课程教师培训的启示

教师人格作为教师影响力的重要构成因素之一,受到我国教育学和心理学研究者的广泛关注.根据近二十年来我国教师人格研究的文献,从优秀教师的典型人格特征、影响教师人格形成和发展的因素、教师人格与学生发展的关系以及教师人格与自身心理健康四个方面进行了归纳和总结.在此基础上提出,聘任和选拔教师应考虑其人格特征;教师培训既要注重专业能力的提高、专业技能的发展,更要重视教师优良人格特征的塑造和培育;注重教师培训的生态效应,强调行动研究,增强培训活动的人格影响力.     

普芬道夫法哲学思想论析

赛缪尔·普芬道夫是17世纪德国法哲学的开创者,是近代世界范围内最杰出的自然法学思想家.普芬道夫对法学的贡献主要表现在他对自然法的捍卫上,作为古典自然法学派在德国的主要代表,其著作中处处充满着自然法思想,尤其是契约论思想更是影响深远.在自然法学说方面,普芬道夫的思想联结着格老秀斯和霍布斯.与其他古典自然法思想家不同,他特别重视对义务的研究.     

Automobile prices and protection: The U.S.-Japan trade restraint

We examine the effects of the U.S.-Japan trade restraint on automobile prices and quality upgrading, for both Japanese imports and American small cars. From April 1981 to April 1984 the suggested retail price of all Japanese models increased by 15.8 percent, or 5.3 percent per year. We find that nearly the entire amount of this rise can be explained by the upgrading of individual models. This upgrading may benefit consumers who would purchase a luxury import in any case, but harms those who desire the basic imports. In addition to upgrading, we conclude that a second cost of the trade restraint has been to prevent the yen depreciation from being passed onto American consumers, in terms of lower imported auto prices. For U.S. small cars we find a 9.1 percent rise in the suggested retail price, or 3 percent per year, with a fraction of this amount due to model upgrading. If the yen depreciation had led to lower import prices without the trade restraint, then we expect that U.S. auto prices would have been lower, too.     

Strategic planning in smaller rapid growth companies

The research reported in this article is based on a study of the strategic planning practices of the 500 fastest growing privately held smaller companies in the United States ranked according to percentage of sales increases from 1978 to 1982.^p1 Based on the information provided, a clear picture emerges regarding the actual role of strategic planning in rapid growth companies.