高校辅导员调解能力提升路径研究

在高校学生管理中,辅导员是预防学生矛盾激化的“第一道防线”,这要求辅导员需要具备较强的调解能力。将从高校学生矛盾冲突的现状出发,挖掘辅导员在调节能力上的不足,剖析人民调解与高校学生管理的内在联系,提出高校辅导员调解能力提升的路径。     

Modelling period fertility: Schooling and intervals following a birth in Eastern Africa

We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.     

Der Einfluss der Gruppengröße auf die Aktivität von Parteimitgliedern

In this paper, we aim to test Olson’s (The logic of collective action: Public goods and the theory of groups, Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1965) assumptions of group size effects on free-riding tendencies in political parties. Multilevel analyses of the Deutsche Parteimitgliederstudie (German Party Membership Study) 2009 reveal that for members of the CDU, CSU, SPD, FDP and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, the assumed negative relationship between the number of party members in the district association and their individual level of activity can only be shown for the eastern states of Germany. Moreover, we show that selective incentives are not suitable for reducing the negative impact of a increasing membership figure, while normative incentives are associated with an increasing free-riding tendency with increasing number of members in the western and eastern Bundesländer. Our results only partly support the assumptions on collective action problems and point to a need for further theoretical and empirical research on group size effects and on the role incentives’ play in explaining the activity in political parties.     

现代新儒家与中华民族精神内涵

现代新儒家对中华民族精神内涵的认识是不尽相同的,但中华民族精神蕴含在中华儒家文化之中是其理论共识。儒家的＂和谐＂与＂理性＂、＂内圣外王＂之道、人文精神、＂极高明而道中庸＂及＂心性之学＂等,都是中华民族精神固有的内涵。现代新儒家致力于从儒家文化视角来解读中华民族精神,是有失公正性的,不加分析地全盘肯定儒家文化及其蕴含的民族精神,也是不符合历史辩证法的。现代新儒家力图从深层的精神内核来认识儒家文化和中华民族精神,是中华民族自我认识过程的深化和发展,也是继续研究中华民族精神不可或缺的重要文化资源。     

Predictors of Treatment Outcome Among Asian Pathological Gamblers (PGs): Clinical,Behavioural, Demographic,and Treatment Process Factors

Research on predictors of treatment outcome among pathological gamblers (PGs) is inconclusive and dominated by studies from Western countries. Using a prospective longitudinal design, the current study examined demographic, clinical, behavioural and treatment programme predictors of gambling frequency at 3, 6 and 12-months, among PGs treated at an addiction clinic in Singapore. Measures included the Hospital anxiety and depression scale, gambling symptom assessment scale (GSAS), personal well-being index (PWI), treatment perception questionnaire and gambling readiness to change scale. Treatment response in relation to changes in symptom severity, personal wellbeing and abstinence were also assessed. Abstinence rates were 38.6, 46.0 and 44.4 % at 3, 6 and 12-months respectively. Significant reductions in gambling frequency, GSAS, and improvement in PWI were reported between baseline and subsequent outcome assessments, with the greatest change occurring in the initial three months. No demographic, clinical, behavioural or treatment programme variable consistently predicted outcome at all three assessments, though treatment satisfaction was the most frequent significant predictor. However, being unemployed, having larger than average debts, poor treatment satisfaction and attending fewer sessions at the later stages of treatment were associated with significantly poorer outcomes, up to 1-year after initiating treatment. These findings show promise for the effectiveness of a CBT-based treatment approach for the treatment of predominantly Chinese PGs. Clinical implications and suggestions for future research are discussed. Taken together, the findings suggest early treatment satisfaction is paramount in improving short-term outcomes, with baseline gambling behaviour and treatment intensity playing a more significant role in the longer term.     

新生代农民工群体特征研究

自2010年中央一号文件首次提出“新生代农民工”说法,新生代农民工开始成为社会各界关注的对象,通过梳理相关文献大致可勾画出新生代农民工所谓“四高”、“一低”、“一薄弱”的社会印象和群体特征。相对其他群体来说,新生代农民工受教育水平并不高,对于农民身份认同相对减弱,城市社区认同较高。对于新生代农民工群体特征的研究应该区分农民工的人口学特征与社会特征,并充分认识到新生代农民工群体的异质性,对其定义和特征把握要注意从与周围群体和代际关系中共同考虑。     

师德建设在营造高校品牌文化中的作用

随着时代的发展,高校品牌文化已经成为竞争的主题。而师德是从古至今都一直受到歌颂的,在现代利益文化的熏陶下,师德显得更加的重要。在高校的竞争中,师德建设已经成为了必不可少的环节。从师德建设的必要性着手,着重分析了师德建设在营造高校品牌文化中的作用。     

Family support policies and child outcomes: a realist-scoping review*

Family support policies (FSP) refer to government policies that promote the well-being of families with children (e.g. job-protected paid leave, cash transfers, childcare). We developed an initial conceptual and theoretical framework of FSP and conducted a realist-scoping review to document the state of evidence regarding the influence of FSP on three child outcomes: poverty, development, and health. Based on the contexts and mechanisms through which FSP are hypothesized to affect child outcomes, we constructed a framework to guide a search of five electronic databases (OVID, ProQuest, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Knowledge). We analysed articles meeting our inclusion criteria (i.e. conceptualized FSP as a function of the welfare state; conceptualized child poverty, development, and health as outcomes; and conducted empirical analyses) in relation to our mechanisms and thematic concerns (context, developmental periods, and differential impacts). A total of 22 studies met our inclusion criteria, which tested 25 independent child outcomes. Our findings identified initial mechanisms that explain the relationship between FSP and child outcomes through (1) increasing parents’ basic capabilities, (2) shaping parents’ childcare options, and (3) influencing parental leave-taking and shifting beliefs about gender relationships in the home and workplace. Future work will be to test these mechanisms and framework through a realist synthesis.     

Family Relationships,Social Connections,and Depressive Symptoms Among Chinese Older Adults in International Migrant Families

This study explored whether and how family relationships and social connections influence depressive symptoms of older migrants and older adults in transnational families using the data gathered from a cross-sectional survey in Los Angeles, California, United States, and Beijing, China. Regression results showed that the older migrants reported significantly higher levels of depression than the elders in transnational families. The findings highlight the importance of maintaining close family relations and having large friendship networks for older adults in international migrant families.     

The Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Wishart Model for Multivariate Realized Volatility

It is well known that in finance variances and covariances of asset returns move together over time. Recently, much interest has been aroused by an approach involving the use of the realized covariance (RCOV) matrix constructed from high-frequency returns as the ex-post realization of the covariance matrix of low-frequency returns. For the analysis of dynamics of RCOV matrices, we propose the generalized conditional autoregressive Wishart (GCAW) model. Both the noncentrality matrix and scale matrix of the Wishart distribution are driven by the lagged values of RCOV matrices, and represent two different sources of dynamics, respectively. The GCAW is a generalization of the existing models, and accounts for symmetry and positive definiteness of RCOV matrices without imposing any parametric restriction. Some important properties such as conditional moments, unconditional moments, and stationarity are discussed. Empirical examples including sequences of daily RCOV matrices from the New York Stock Exchange illustrate that our model outperforms the existing models in terms of model fitting and forecasting.