农业宏观预警系统构架初探

农业宏观预警系统,是农业现代化管理发展的必然产物,它的建立将减少我国农业宏观决策中的失误。文章提出了农业预警系统的指标体系和系统的基本构架设想,分析了农业预警系统建立的客观条件。     

国有银行金融交易结构比较与其金融风险状态分析

在传统体制下,我国国有银行是一种行政机关及经济组织的捏合体,垄断信用、统存统贷,并履行结算支付职能,充当“公共簿记”。在社会经济活动有限的债权债务关系中,银行的最终债权人与最终债务人都是国家,银行经营成果及收支最后均由财政统一包揽,事实上并不存在真正...     

Expressing Estimators of Expected Quality Adjusted Survival as Functions of Nelson-Aalen Estimators

Quality adjusted survival has been increasingly advocated in clinical trials to be assessed as a synthesis of survival and quality of life. We investigate nonparametric estimation of its expectation for a general multistate process with incomplete follow-up data. Upon establishing a representation of expected quality adjusted survival through marginal distributions of a set of defined events, we propose two estimators for expected quality adjusted survival. Expressed as functions of Nelson-Aalen estimators, the two estimators are strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We derive their asymptotic variances and propose sample-based variance estimates, along with evaluation of asymptotic relative efficiency. Monte Carlo studies show that these estimation procedures perform well for practical sample sizes. We illustrate the methods using data from a national, multicenter AIDS clinical trial.     

在普通箱式炉中进行气体软氮化的研究

本文论述了以甲酰胺为渗剂,在普通箱式电炉中,对3 Cr 2 W 8 V 等钢进行气体软氮化的研究。成功地解决了3 Cr 2 W 8 V 钢压铸模热处理变形及模具在使用中的粘模问题。提高了模具的使用寿命。     

VAX-11机宏指令的编制——汇编语言中浮点数输入输出和建立数据文件

本文介绍利用VAX-11 RMS(记录管理服务)编制单精度浮点数输入输出宏指令和建立磁盘数据文件的技术和算法。成果已用于VAX-11/780机上,给我院VAX-11宏汇编语言的教学带来了很大的方便。     

经济增长是否存在“贫困陷阱”

本文从OLG随机增长模型出发,使用中国城市数据估计参数化的产出运动方程,对人均实际产出分布的动态过程进行模拟预测。研究发现,尽管产出运动方程并非严格凹,但稳态均衡唯一,经济增长未出现"贫困陷阱"。长期来看,地区经济最终趋于单峰收敛,采用离差指数衡量经济发展平衡程度的结果显示,经济发展不平衡程度将有所下降。外生扰动(如技术进步、政策扶持)的持续性越强,经济增长收敛越快。     

Generalized varying-coefficient single-index model

In this paper, the generalized varying-coefficient single-index model is discussed based on penalized likelihood. All the unknown functions are fitted by penalized spline. The estimates of the unknown parameters and the unknown coefficient functions are obtained and the estimation approach is rapid and computationally stable. Under some mild conditions, the consistency and the asymptotic normality of these resulting estimators are given. Two simulation studies are carried out to illustrate the performance of the estimates. An application of the model to the Hong Kong environmental data further demonstrates the potential of the proposed modelling procedures.     

A modified subset selection formulation with special reference to one-way and two-way layout experiments

The usual formulation of subset selection due to Gupta (1956) requires a minimum guaranteed probability of a correct selection. The modified formulation of the present paper includes an additional requirement that the expected number of the nonbest populations be bounded above by a specified constant when the best and the next best populations are ‘sufficiently’ apart. A class of procedures is defined and the determination of the minimum sample size required is discussed. The specific problems discussed for normal populations include selection in terms of means and variances, and selection in terms of treatment effects in a two-way layout.     

Two Adjusted Empirical-Likelihood-Based Methods in Generalized Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Model

An empirical likelihood method was proposed by Owen and has been extended to many semiparametric and nonparametric models with a continuous response variable. However, there has been less attention focused on the generalized regression model. This article systematically studies two adjusted empirical-likelihood-based methods in the generalized varying-coefficient partially linear models. Based on the popular profile likelihood estimation procedure, the new adjusted empirical likelihood technology for the parameter is established and the resulting statistics are shown to be asymptotically standard chi-square distributed. Further, the adjusted empirical-likelihood-based confidence regions are established, and an efficient adjusted profile empirical-likelihood-based confidence intervals/regions for any components of the parameter, which are of primary interest, is also constructed. Their asymptotic properties are also derived. Some numerical studies are carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposed inference procedures.