Signal extraction goodness-of-fit diagnostic tests under model parameter uncertainty: Formulations and empirical evaluation

We present a time-domain goodness-of-fit (gof) diagnostic test that is based on signal-extraction variances for nonstationary time series. This diagnostic test extends the time-domain gof statistic of Maravall (2003 Maravall, A. (2003). A class of diagnostics in the ARIMA-model-based decomposition of a time series. Memorandum, Bank of Spain. Available at http://www.bde.es/servicio/software/tramo/diagnosticsamb.pdf [Google Scholar]) by taking into account the effects of model parameter uncertainty, utilizing theoretical results of McElroy and Holan (2009 McElroy, T., Holan, S. (2009). A local spectral approach for assessing time series model misspeci?cation. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 100:604–621.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We demonstrate that omitting this correction results in a severely undersized statistic. Adequate size and power are obtained in Monte Carlo studies for fairly short time series (10 to 15 years of monthly data). Our Monte Carlo studies of finite sample size and power consider different combinations of both signal and noise components using seasonal, trend, and irregular component models obtained via canonical decomposition. Details of the implementation appropriate for SARIMA models are given. We apply the gof diagnostic test statistics to several U.S. Census Bureau time series. The results generally corroborate the output of the automatic model selection procedure of the X-12-ARIMA software, which in contrast to our diagnostic test statistic does not involve hypothesis testing. We conclude that these diagnostic test statistics are a useful supplementary model-checking tool for practitioners engaged in the task of model-based seasonal adjustment.     

Gendered experiences of physical restraint on locked wards for women

Physical restraint is used in inpatient services for people with intellectual disabilities as a way of holding a person to avoid injury. This article uses data from an ethnographic study in a locked unit in the north of England to explore women’s experiences of physical restraint using a feminist disability studies analysis. Data consists of field notes as well as interviews with 16 of the women who had experienced restraint, and 10 staff who worked with them. The women gave insights into the gendered phenomenon of restraint in light of their past experiences of violence. The authors argue that restraint is used with women to encourage passivity at times when more relational and therapeutic methods could be used. The article offers recommendations for alternative strategies that services can encourage.     

Short Break and Respite Services for Disabled Children in England: Comparing Children's and Parents' Perspectives of Their Impact on Children

Researchers, health and social care workers often seek to understand the perspectives of children; but gathering views directly from children can present difficulties. Parents are often asked to provide accounts of children's feelings or opinions on the assumption that their proxy reports are accurate and unproblematic. This qualitative thematic analysis of open‐question responses from 352 parents and 73 disabled children examines their accounts of the impact of short break services on disabled children. Participants' perspectives differed; children tended to describe immediate outcomes such as enjoying activities and participation; parents acknowledged these, but focused on longer term developmental outcomes for children.     

Impact of low fertility and early age at sterilisation on women’s formal education and skill development in South India

This paper examines the impact of low fertility and early age at sterilisation on women’s formal education and skill development in South India. Multilevel ordered-logit modelling of pseudo-cohort data re-organised from the three rounds of National Family Health Survey, and thematic analysis of qualitative data collected from Tamil Nadu and Kerala states showed no evidence of women’s resumption of formal education or uptake of skill development training in the post-sterilisation and post-childcare period. While resuming formal education in the post-sterilisation and post-childcare period is harder to achieve for various individual, household, community and policy reasons, there is greater preparedness and support for women to undertake skill development training. As low fertility and early age at sterilisation are widely regarded as the emerging reproductive norm in India, post-sterilisation and -childcare women will be a significant population group both in number and in proportional terms. No government policies or programs have so far recognised this group. India’s new government should consider targeted skill development programs for post-sterilisation and -childcare women appropriate to their social, economic and educational levels. An important contribution of the family planning program, particularly female sterilisation, for the economic and social development of the family and the wider society will otherwise be lost.     

Ethnic segregation in context: Social discrimination among native Dutch pupils and their ethnic minority classmates

Social discrimination, defined as the relative preference for intra-ethnic over inter-ethnic relationships, was studied in pupils’ networks in Dutch secondary school classes. While native Dutch pupils (ethnic majority members) mainly named fellow majority members, ethnic minority members reported ties with as many majority as minority members. Considering the ethnic composition of the classroom, however, majority members discriminated less than minorities. No strong effect of classroom ethnic composition on social discrimination was found, whereas neighborhood composition was shown to clearly influence social discrimination: ethnic minority members were more, and majority members less inclined to discriminate in neighborhoods with more ethnic presence.     

Atos Healthcare withdraws from the Work Capability Assessment: a comment

In March 2014 Atos Healthcare withdrew a year early from its contract to provide the UK’s health assessment – the Work Capability Assessment (WCA) – that is supposed to sort disabled people into administrative categories according to their adjudged capability to do paid work. This move was welcomed by political elites, with, for example, UK Coalition Government Minister for Disabled People Mike Penning using it to criticise previous Labour governments for the contractual arrangements they put in place – although while the Coalition may have been concerned with the contractual arrangements soon after being formed, it extended the contract for five years. For the UK disability movement, the withdrawal of Atos Healthcare early from the WCA contract was a victory and, at least in part, a consequence of disabled activists’ resistance to the Employment and Support Allowance generally, and the WCA in particular.     

Women Auto Know: Automotive knowledge,auto activism,and women's online car advice

Although women influence nearly 85 percent of new car sales, their experience at automotive dealerships differs significantly from that of men. Not only are women subject to sexist and patronizing behavior from automotive personnel, but they also often wind up paying considerably more for a vehicle than a male customer. In the past two decades, the Internet has evolved as a significant source of automotive information and advice. While the majority of car advice websites offer guidance to the general public, a handful address the automotive concerns of the female driver. These sites are significant not only for the information they make accessible to female visitors, but for what women gain—as drivers, consumers, and political actors—by reading them. This paper examines four popular websites that cater specifically to the woman driver. Calling upon feminist epistemologies, it demonstrates how such online locations empower women to become more informed drivers and consumers through the accumulation and distribution of women's automotive knowledge. Not only does this automotive knowledge aid women as negotiators, but it also provides them with the tools necessary to radically transform the hostile auto dealership culture, ultimately benefiting all in the market for an automobile.     

Estimating a frequency distribution when the sampling is biased

A simple random sample on a random variable A allows its density to be consistently estimated, by a histogram or preferably a kernel density estimate. When the sampling is biased towards certain x-values these methods instead estimate a weighted version of the density function. This article proposes a method for estimating both the density and the sampling bias simultaneously. The technique requires two independent samples and utilises ideas from mark-recapture experiments. An estimator of the size of the sampled population also follows simply from this density estimate.