Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Latour and Woolgar’s ‘cycle of scientific credibility’ as a basis for conceptualizing business school strategy

Review of Managerial Science - Drawing on contemporary and historical discourse around UK business schools and insights from the sociology of scientific knowledge, we argue that business schools...     

Sick building syndrome and perceived indoor environmental quality: A survey of apartment buildings in Hong Kong

The outbreak of a highly communicable disease, SARS, in Asia in 2003 has revealed the health risk of living in a high-density environment. To show the important connection between human health and environmental quality, this study surveys the prevalence of sick building syndrome (SBS) among apartment residents and their evaluation of indoor environmental quality (IEQ). Based on a sample of 748 households living in Hong Kong, two interesting findings are revealed: (1) nasal discomfort was the commonest home-related SBS symptom despite the absence of any central ventilation system in apartment buildings; (2) noise, rather than ventilation, was the major IEQ problem perceived by residents. Our statistical analysis further showed that residents with SBS symptoms were less satisfied with their IEQ than those without. That is, despite a positive evaluation of specific IEQ criteria with respect to the building residents lived in, if they reported feeling SBS related symptoms, the overall IEQ evaluation of their building could still be negative. This perception bias gives rise to a sample selection problem in measuring perceived IEQ, which has implications on housing management practices and the formulation of a healthy housing policy.     

Participation, Authority, and Distributive Equity in East Timorese Development

The anthropology of development seeks to understand the complex encounter between international and national development regimes and local patterns of livelihood and being. As science and development move objects, at once material and discursive, through the networks of the social to reach “impoverished” others, local groups reach out to development actors to evaluate and appropriate their resources and accept or redirect those efforts. In a political interplay of disciplinary measures and localizing translations, development projects are re-invented, or aspects thereof refused, just as development actors strain to keep projects on track. With input from science and technology studies, this article explores the participatory, authoritative, and distributive dimensions to agricultural development in East Timor. Across four cases studies—a dairy, a greenhouse, a seed development program, and a permanent farming initiative—the politics of projects are compared and discussed within the broader context of colonial and postcolonial development. The article is based on a total of 1 year of fieldwork conducted in 2003, 2008, and 2009.     

Development of a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Human Salmonellosis Through Household Consumption of Fresh Minced Pork Meat in Belgium

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) according to the Codex Alimentarius Principles is conducted to evaluate the risk of human salmonellosis through household consumption of fresh minced pork meat in Belgium. The quantitative exposure assessment is carried out by building a modular risk model, called the METZOON-model, which covers the pork production from farm to fork. In the METZOON-model, the food production pathway is split up in six consecutive modules: (1) primary production, (2) transport and lairage, (3) slaughterhouse, (4) postprocessing, (5) distribution and storage, and (6) preparation and consumption. All the modules are developed to resemble as closely as possible the Belgian situation, making use of the available national data. Several statistical refinements and improved modeling techniques are proposed. The model produces highly realistic results. The baseline predicted number of annual salmonellosis cases is 20,513 ( SD 9061.45). The risk is estimated higher for the susceptible population (estimate  4.713 × 10⁻⁵; SD 1.466 × 10⁻⁵  ) compared to the normal population  (estimate 7.704 × 10⁻⁶; SD 5.414 × 10⁻⁶)  and is mainly due to undercooking and to a smaller extent to cross-contamination in the kitchen via cook's hands.     

The Development of Gaze Following in a Third‐Party Context

Infants follow the gaze of an individual with whom they are directly interacting by the end of the first year. By 18 months infants are capable of learning novel words in observational (or third‐party) contexts (Floor & Akhtar, 2006). To examine third‐party gaze following in 12‐ and 18‐month‐olds, the parent and experimenter engaged in a conversation while the infant was present. For 8 trials approximately every 30 sec the experimenter would turn her head to the right or left to fixate on a toy placed on either side of the room with the parent following suit. In the first experiment, the parent was seated next to the infant and the experimenter opposite, whereas in the second experiment the positions of the adults were switched. In Experiment 1, 18‐month‐olds but not 12‐month‐olds followed gaze. In Experiment 2, 12‐month‐olds acquired a tendency to follow gaze during the experimental session. These results suggest that an incipient ability to follow third‐party gaze is present by 12 months and that infants acquire a more reliable and general ability to follow the gaze of noninteractive others between 12 and 18 months.     

Culture,the 'sick role' and the consumption of health

This paper revisits Parsons's conception of the 'sick role' and examines the relevance of his writings on the cultural understanding of sickness to the consumption of health in the contemporary era. In terms of current developments, I focus on the development of pro-active approaches towards the healthy body, and the growth of 'information rich' consumers of health care. These have become prominent themes in sociology, and while Parsons's writings are usually viewed as anachronistic I argue they remain highly pertinent to understanding the emergence of informed, body conscious lay people. If Parsons's analysis of health is more relevant to current circumstances than many critics assume, however, it is not unproblematic. The residual categories associated with the sick role obscure the continued utility of his work on the general cultural values informing health care. It is Parsons's analysis of these values, I suggest, that needs rescuing from restricted understandings of the sick role and highlighting as an important resource for contemporary theorists.     

An Empirical Approach to Sufficient Similarity: Combining Exposure Data and Mixtures Toxicology Data

When assessing risks posed by environmental chemical mixtures, whole mixture approaches are preferred to component approaches. When toxicological data on whole mixtures as they occur in the environment are not available, Environmental Protection Agency guidance states that toxicity data from a mixture considered “sufficiently similar” to the environmental mixture can serve as a surrogate. We propose a novel method to examine whether mixtures are sufficiently similar, when exposure data and mixture toxicity study data from at least one representative mixture are available. We define sufficient similarity using equivalence testing methodology comparing the distance between benchmark dose estimates for mixtures in both data‐rich and data‐poor cases. We construct a “similar mixtures risk indicator”(SMRI) (analogous to the hazard index) on sufficiently similar mixtures linking exposure data with mixtures toxicology data. The methods are illustrated using pyrethroid mixtures occurrence data collected in child care centers (CCC) and dose‐response data examining acute neurobehavioral effects of pyrethroid mixtures in rats. Our method shows that the mixtures from 90% of the CCCs were sufficiently similar to the dose‐response study mixture. Using exposure estimates for a hypothetical child, the 95th percentile of the (weighted) SMRI for these sufficiently similar mixtures was 0.20 (i.e., where SMRI <1, less concern; >1, more concern).