Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability

To investigate how economic conditions and crises affect mortality and its predictability in industrialized countries, we review the related literature, and we forecast mortality developments in Spain, Hungary, and Russia—three countries which have recently undergone major transformation processes following the introduction of radical economic and political reforms. The results of our retrospective mortality forecasts from 1991 to 2009 suggest that our model can capture major changes in long-term mortality trends, and that the forecast errors it generates are usually smaller than those of other well-accepted models, like the Lee-Carter model and its coherent variant. This is because our approach is capable of modeling (1) dynamic shifts in survival improvements from younger to older ages over time, as well as (2) substantial changes in long-term trends by optionally complementing the extrapolated mortality trends in a country of interest with those of selected reference countries. However, the forecasting performance of our model is limited (like that of every model): e.g., if mortality becomes extremely volatile—as was the case in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union—generating a precise forecast will depend more on luck than on methodology and expert judgment. In general, we conclude that, on their own, recent economic changes appear to have minor effects on life expectancy in industrialized countries, but that the effects of these changes are greater if they occur in conjunction with other major social and political changes.     

Competing Sovereignties,Contested Processes: Insights from the Venezuelan Food Sovereignty Experiment

Abstract

This article explores how ‘competing sovereignties’ are shaping the political construction of food sovereignty—broadly defined as ‘the right of peoples to healthy and culturally appropriate food produced through ecologically sound and sustainable methods, and their right to define their own food and agriculture systems'. This study was motivated by a lack of clarity on the ‘sovereignty’ of food sovereignty, as noted by numerous scholars—sovereignty for whom, and how? As there is a growing consensus that there are in fact ‘multiple sovereignties’ of food sovereignty that cut across jurisdictions and scales, there is the question of how these sovereignties are competing with each other in the attempted construction of food sovereignty. This question is becoming ever more relevant as food sovereignty is increasingly adopted into state policy at various levels, calling for state and societal actors to redefine their terms of engagement. This article explores questions of ‘competing sovereignties’ by developing an analytical framework, using the lenses of scale, geography, and institutions, and applying it to Venezuela, where for the past 15 years a food sovereignty experiment has been underway in the context of a dynamic shift in state–society relations.     

A Bootstrap Approach for Testing Marginal Independence Between Two Categorical Variables When Subjects Have Repeated Responses

To assess independence in two-way contingency tables, the Pearson chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test are typically used. These tests assume that each subject contributes at most one count to only one table cell (e.g., sex versus blood type). In other situations, each subject may have more than one count contributing to the table and these counts may occur in different cells of the table. One may wish to test independence, adjusting for the within-subject correlation. We provide a simple nonparametric bootstrap approach and assess its performance through simulation studies. The method is illustrated on subjects with multiple mental health presentations to Emergency Departments.     

Emotional functioning, attachment style, and attributions as predictors of child abuse potential in domestic violence victims

To explore cognitive and emotional factors that may exacerbate child-abuse potential among domestic violence victims, 80 participants reported on their depression, hopelessness, anxiety, and anger as well as their attachment style and attributional style. Increased emotional difficulties as well as insecure attachment styles were significantly positively correlated with child abuse potential, although depression and anxiety were the strongest predictors. Externalizing blame for the spousal abuse was not associated with abuse risk. Women residing in shelters demonstrated significantly greater abuse risk than those in transitional housing programs, suggesting that greater temporal proximity to the spousal abuse may in part account for the increased abuse potential. Depression and hopelessness, however, appeared particularly relevant to increased abuse risk in domestic violence victims in the transitional housing system. Implications of these findings for working with battered women in terms of their emotional functioning and attachment style are discussed.     

Logistic Regression Models with Unspecified Low Dose–Response Relationships and Experimental Designs for Hormesis Studies

Hormesis refers to a nonmonotonic (biphasic) dose–response relationship in toxicology, environmental science, and related fields. In the presence of hormesis, a low dose of a toxic agent may have a lower risk than the risk at the control dose, and the risk may increase at high doses. When the sample size is small due to practical, logistic, and ethical considerations, a parametric model may provide an efficient approach to hypothesis testing at the cost of adopting a strong assumption, which is not guaranteed to be true. In this article, we first consider alternative parameterizations based on the traditional three‐parameter logistic regression. The new parameterizations attempt to provide robustness to model misspecification by allowing an unspecified dose–response relationship between the control dose and the first nonzero experimental dose. We then consider experimental designs including the uniform design (the same sample size per dose group) and the $c$‐optimal design (minimizing the standard error of an estimator for a parameter of interest). Our simulation studies showed that (1) the $c$‐optimal design under the traditional three‐parameter logistic regression does not help reducing an inflated Type I error rate due to model misspecification, (2) it is helpful under the new parameterization with three parameters (Type I error rate is close to a fixed significance level), and (3) the new parameterization with four parameters and the $c$‐optimal design does not reduce statistical power much while preserving the Type I error rate at a fixed significance level.     

Constructing the New Economy: A Discursive Perspective

The rise and fall of the 'New Economy' at the turn of the millennium, most visibly evidenced by the stellar rise and subsequent collapse of the Nasdaq composite index of technology stocks, represents one of the most significant business phenomena in recent times. This paper examines the 'New Economy' phenomenon as a culturally embedded discourse through an analysis of 133 print advertisements collected from the UK edition of the Financial Times between February and December 2000. It investigates the social construction of the concept 'New Economy' in a rapidly changing business environment. The contribution of the paper lies in the empirical study of discursive phenomena in late capitalist societies. From a discursive perspective, the 'New Economy' can be seen as a signifier that points to itself, whose form is its very content. The paper suggests the 'New Economy' must be understood in terms of its ability to accommodate multiple meanings, and it is this very ability which is profoundly ideological, in that it allows essentially socio-historical obsessions and anxieties (e.g. about novelty and change) to appear as seemingly 'natural' or logical behaviour.     

Social capital and women's reduced vulnerability to HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe

Social capital—especially through its “network” dimension (high levels of participation in local community groups)—is thought to be an important determinant of health in many contexts. We investigate its effect on HIV prevention, using prospective data from a general population cohort in eastern Zimbabwe spanning a period of extensive behavior change (1998–2003). Almost half of the initially uninfected women interviewed were members of at least one community group. In an analysis of 88 communities, individuals with higher levels of community group participation had lower incidence of new HIV infections and more of them had adopted safer behaviors, although these effects were largely accounted for by differences in socio-demographic composition. Individual women in community groups had lower HIV incidence and more extensive behavior change, even after controlling for confounding factors. Community group membership was not associated with lower HIV incidence in men, possibly refecting a propensity among men to participate in groups that allow them to develop and demonstrate their masculine identities—often at the expense of their health. Support for women's community groups could be an effective HIV prevention strategy in countries with large-scale HIV epidemics.     

National Income and Income Inequality,Family Affluence and Life Satisfaction Among 13 year Old Boys and Girls: A Multilevel Study in 35 Countries

Adolescence is a critical period where many patterns of health and health behaviour are formed. The objective of this study was to investigate cross-national variation in the relationship between family affluence and adolescent life satisfaction, and the impact of national income and income inequality on this relationship. Data from the 2006 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children: WHO collaborative Study (N = 58,352 across 35 countries) were analysed using multilevel linear and logistic regression analyses for outcome measures life satisfaction score and binary high/low life satisfaction. National income and income inequality were associated with aggregated life satisfaction score and prevalence of high life satisfaction. Within-country socioeconomic inequalities in life satisfaction existed even after adjustment for family structure. This relationship was curvilinear and varied cross-nationally. Socioeconomic inequalities were greatest in poor countries and in countries with unequal income distribution. GDP (PPP US$) and Gini did not explain between country variance in socioeconomic inequalities in life satisfaction. The existence of, and variation in, within-country socioeconomic inequalities in adolescent life satisfaction highlights the importance of identifying and addressing mediating factors during this life stage.     

Children and the Elderly: Wealth Inequality Among America’s Dependents

Life cycle theory predicts that elderly households have higher levels of wealth than households with children, but these wealth gaps are likely dynamic, responding to changes in labor market conditions, patterns of debt accumulation, and the overall economic context. Using Survey of Consumer Finances data from 1989 through 2013, we compare wealth levels between and within the two groups that make up America’s dependents: the elderly and child households (households with a resident child aged 18 or younger). Over the observed period, the absolute wealth gap between elderly and child households in the United States increased substantially, and diverging trends in wealth accumulation exacerbated preexisting between-group disparities. Widening gaps were particularly pronounced among the least-wealthy elderly and child households. Differential demographic change in marital status and racial composition by subgroup do not explain the widening gap. We also find increasing wealth inequality within child households and the rise of a “parental 1 %.” During a time of overall economic growth, the elderly have been able to maintain or increase their wealth, whereas many of the least-wealthy child households saw precipitous declines. Our findings suggest that many child households may lack sufficient assets to promote the successful flourishing of the next generation.