Catastrophic Events,Parameter Uncertainty and the Breakdown of Implicit Long-Term Contracting: The Case of Terrorism Insurance

This paper examines the reaction of the stock prices of U.S. property-casualty insurers to the World Trade Center (WTC) terrorist attack of September 11, 2001. Theories of insurance market equilibrium and theories of long-term contracting predict that large loss events which deplete capital and increase parameter uncertainty will affect weakly capitalized insurers more significantly than stronger firms. The empirical results are consistent with this prediction. Insurance stock prices generally declined following the WTC attack. However, the stock prices of insurers with strong financial ratings rebounded after the first post-event week, while those of weaker insurers did not, consistent with the flight-to-quality hypothesis.     

The Two-Stage Model of Carcinogenesis: Overcoming the Nonidentifiability Dilemma

The two-stage mathematical model of carcinogenesis has been shown to be nonidentifiable whenever tumor incidence data alone is used to fit the model (Hanin and Yakovlev, 1996). This lack of identifiability implies that more than one parameter vector satisfies the optimization criteria for parameter estimation, e.g., maximum likelihood estimation. A question of greater concern to persons using the two-stage model of carcinogenesis is under what conditions can identifiable parameters be obtained from the observed experimental data. We outline how to obtain identifiable parameters for the two-stage model.     

Identity and Government Funding in Christian Nonprofits*

Objectives. This article aims to understand if and how the expressed religious identity of Christian nonprofit organizations varies between those receiving and not receiving government funding and whether there is evidence that government funding produces such differences. Methods. I utilize a content analysis of narratives provided on tax forms of 1,900 of the largest national and international Christian nonprofits based in the United States. Results. Christian nonprofits receiving government funding are less likely to express a religious identity and tend to use more inclusive language when doing so. However, receiving government funding does not seem to be the direct cause of changes in expressed religious identity. Conclusions. Differences in expressed religious identity might better be understood as the result of long‐term changes that both alter the organization's identity and makes it more likely to acquire government funding.     

Emotion Situation Knowledge in Elementary School: Models of Longitudinal Growth and Preschool Correlates

We examined individual differences in developmental trajectories of emotion situation knowledge (ESK), at three time points throughout elementary school in a sample of children from economically disadvantaged families. Results showed that ESK and the subscales of joy, fear, anger, shame and interest exhibited positive growth from the first to the fifth grade, whereas scores on the sad subscale declined slightly. Preschool verbal ability predicted first grade scores for joy, fear, and anger, and growth in scores for shame across time. Preschool negative emotional intensity predicted slower growth in overall ESK and the anger and shame subscales. Taken together, these results broaden our basic knowledge of how children's use of situational cues to infer others' emotions develops in middle and late childhood.     

Do Advance Letters Improve Preelection Forecast Accuracy?

The survey methodology literature has debated whether advanceletters to potential survey respondents will reduce nonresponsebias and thereby improve the accuracy of preelection forecasts.This research note analyzes the results of experiments conductedin Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania in which advance letterswere sent to a random sample of potential survey respondentsto 2002 preelection surveys. We find a significant increasein the overall response rate, although notably less than inpast studies. However, the advance letters did not improve therepresentativeness of survey respondents or the accuracy ofthe election forecasts.     

Conservative Protestantism and Tolerance toward Homosexuals: An Examination of Potential Mechanisms*

A number of studies over the years have reported that members of conservative Protestant churches tend to be less tolerant—that is, reluctant to extend civil liberties—vis‐à‐vis homosexuals. This paper explores several possible explanations for this pattern. In particular, we identify key aspects of conservative Protestant religious values and worldviews that may contribute to this pattern, and relevant hypotheses are tested using data from the 1988 General Social Survey. Results highlight the role of biblical literalism, as well as specific beliefs about the public nature of morality and the implications of perceived immoral conduct for collective well‐being. We discuss the implications of these findings for the understanding of contemporary conservative Protestantism, as well as for future research on the nexus of religion, politics, and democratic citizenship.     

Disrupted Bodies: Experiencing the Newly Limited Body in Stroke

This article explores the intersection of recovery and bodily practices among stroke survivors. Drawing on the extensive literature on the socially constructed body in general, on chronic illness, and on interactionist thought, we explore bodily experience as a mechanism that informs stroke survivors' understanding and practices of everyday life in recovery. We ask a central question: what practical mechanisms does the survivor employ to provide meaning to her or his newly disrupted body? Data gathered from in‐depth interviews with fifty‐one discharged stroke survivors show that they use three specific technologies of bodily management and meaning‐making. These are managing the body within a mind‐body dualism, testing the body in its everyday practices, and orienting to the body as a biographically informed phenomenon.