论《畿辅方言》对《汉语方言大词典》修订的作用

清人王树柑《畿辅方言》是清末民初一部记载河北方言的辞书,也是一部研究河北古代方言的专书,在方言学史和汉语词汇史上具有重要地位与价值。《畿辅方言》以词汇研究为视角,对《汉语方言大词典》修订的作用体现在增补词目、补充义项、提前书证、补充书证等四个方面。     

论地方财政的可持续发展——以山西省财政为例

地方财政的可持续发展战略,应表达地方政府的“发展度”、“协调度”和“持续度”。影响地方财政可持续发展的因素,主要包括财政收入总量、财政收入结构、财政收入产业来源和财政支出结构等。要实现地方财政的可持续发展需加强税源建设,发展地方经济,优化地方财政收入和支出结构。     

Unifying CRM and EWOC designs for phase I cancer clinical trials

The main goal of phase I cancer clinical trials is to determine the highest dose of a new therapy associated with an acceptable level of toxicity for the use in a subsequent phase II trial. The continual reassessment method (CRM) [O’Quigley, J., Pepe, M., Fisher, L., 1990. Continual reassessment method: a practical design for phase I clinical trials in cancer. Biometrics 46, 33–48] and escalation with overdose control (EWOC) [Babb, J., Rogatko, A., Zacks, S., 1998. Cancer phase I clinical trials: efficient dose escalation with overdose control. Statist. Med. 17 (10), 1103–1120] are two model-based designs used for phase I cancer clinical trials. A few modifications of the (original) CRM and EWOC have been made by many authors. In this paper, we show how CRM and EWOC can be unified and present a hybrid design. We study the characteristics of the approach of the hybrid design. The comparisons of the three designs (CRM, EWOC, and the hybrid design) are presented by convergence rates and overdose proportions. The simulation results show that the hybrid design generally has faster convergence rates than EWOC and smaller overdose proportions than CRM, especially when the true maximum tolerated dose (MTD) is above the mid-level of the dose range considered. The performance of these three designs is also evaluated in terms of sensitivity to outliers.     

地方政府支出与农村居民消费需求：基于1998-2007年省级 面板数据的经验分析

 政府支出对居民消费需求产生挤出抑或挤入效应是理论界最近关注的焦点之一。本文在理论诠释地方政府支出对农村居民消费需求的传导机制以及模型建立的理论框架下,通过建立地方政府支出与农村居民消费支出之间的个体固定效应变截距模型,运用我国31个省份1998-2007年的经验数据进行实证检验,结果表明：地方政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费具有显著的挤入效应,而转移性支出与农村居民消费的相关程度并不明显。基于理论分析和实证检验结果,本文最后针对地方政府扩大农村居民消费提出相关建议。     

城市社区建设与管理创新研究

社区建设与管理创新,应着力推动政府转型,开创经济社会和谐发展的新局面;探索建立层级简明、职能清晰、运行高效的城市管理服务最基层组织运行新体制;创新建设民主自治特点鲜明的新社区等方面破题,最终建立起与社会主义市场经济体制相适应的,政府主导、社会协同、居民参与的社区治理结构新体制。     

法院如何回应民意:一种法学方法论上的解决方案

围绕司法与民意的讨论,目前各界存在原因认知、概念认知、价值认知上的观点错位,影响民众对司法回应的肯定.作为法律适用机关的法院在回应民意上具有不同于政治机关的特点,必须以一种理性、中立的态度审慎地回应民意,做到有理有节、有所为有所不为.在回应过程中,应当根据民意的特点着重处理法意与民意、社会民意与权力意志之间的矛盾冲突关系,为此,必须在回应民意的时机选择与方法操作上遵循司法活动的基本规律.通过认定疑难案件的程序操作,使得外在的民意得以稳定化,以程序阻隔"舆论暴力";通过法律论证的操作,以普遍化、一致性与融贯性三原则检验与提升民意本身的合理性程度,以方法压缩个人恣意.法院的回应是对成熟且理性的民意的回应,建立在个案基础上的回应能逐步挽回民众对法院的信任.     

Prenatal Sex Determination and Sex‐Selective Abortion in Rural Central China

This study analyzes the practice of prenatal sex selection in rural central China. It examines the prevalence and determinants of prenatal sex determination by ultrasound scanning and subsequent sex‐selective abortion. The data are derived from a survey of 820 married women aged 20–44 and from in‐depth interviews with rural women and men, village leaders, family planning managers, and health providers, conducted by the author in one county in central China in 2000. Prenatal sex determination was a widespread practice, especially for second and higher‐order pregnancies. Sex‐selective abortion was prevalent and order of pregnancy, sex of fetus, and sex of previous children were major determinants of the practice. A female fetus representing a high‐order pregnancy in a family with one or more daughters was the most likely to be aborted. Awareness among rural families that in the population at large a future marriage squeeze was likely did not diminish the demand for sex‐selective abortion.     

Ecosystem resilience, specialized adaptation and population decline: A modern Malthusian theory

The purpose of this article is to construct a theoretical framework characterizing the interactions among economic development, ecosystem equilibrium and possible population decline, and to discuss the population dynamics in the very long run. In our framework, economic activities bridge population and environment. On the one hand, human beings reform the environment through economic activities; on the other hand, economic activities decrease environmental resilience and increase the possibility of an environmental change in a discontinuous and irreversible pattern, as described in Arrow et al. (1995). Furthermore, a highly developed economy also causes over-specialization of human adaptation, which tends to exaggerate the impact of an environmental change on human population size. Received: 19 January 1999/Accepted: 3 July 1999     

邓小平政治体制改革思想中的辩证关系

邓小平的政治体制改革思想是他改革总体战略的重要组成部分,邓小平关于政治体制改革与政治稳定的关系,关于基本政治制度与具体制度体制的关系,关于领导体制与领导者个人作用的关系,关于政治体制与经济体制改革的关系,都是马克思主义辩证法思维在政治领域的自觉运用。深入研究邓小平政治体制改革思想中的辩证思维,对于继续推进当代中国的政治体制改革,增强在改革中的主动性、创造性和科学性,实现中华民族的伟大复兴,具有十分重要的意义。