Convergence of long-term care planning and retirement planning at the work place

There is an increasing expectation that the private-sector should provide needed solutions to pressing problems in long-term care. Long-term care insurance has figured prominently in recent discussions. Within the long-term care insurance market, the potential of the employer in making such insurance available to employees has been discussed extensively. This paper traces the increasing convergence of retirement planning and long-term care planning at the work place. The long-term care insurance market has come a long way, and the employer-sponsored segment of the market has recorded the highest rate of growth in recent times. Furthermore, the employer-sponsored market is beginning to diversify. Low take-up rates still remain a problem. Recent rapid growth of the market coupled with the federal government's involvement as an employer offering long-term care insurance is bound to expand the market further.     

Wage dynamics and promotions inside and between firms

We focus on the dynamic relation between wage increases, promotions and job changes. In the empirical analyses, we use the Portuguese-matched employer–employee data Quadros de Pessoal. We find substantial wage returns to both promotions and job-to-job transitions. Our results are not consistent with models of full information and symmetric learning in a competitive and frictionless market. This might suggest that there is asymmetric information. An alternative explanation is that workers might search for a good match. Finally, we show that employer-reported promotions differ to a large extent from changes in hierarchical levels.     

Temporal disaggregation and restricted forecasting of multiple population time series

This article presents some applications of time-series procedures to solve two typical problems that arise when analyzing demographic information in developing countries: (1) unavailability of annual time series of population growth rates (PGRs) and their corresponding population time series and (2) inappropriately defined population growth goals in official population programs. These problems are considered as situations that require combining information of population time series. Firstly, we suggest the use of temporal disaggregation techniques to combine census data with vital statistics information in order to estimate annual PGRs. Secondly, we apply multiple restricted forecasting to combine the official targets on future PGRs with the disaggregated series. Then, we propose a mechanism to evaluate the compatibility of the demographic goals with the annual data. We apply the aforementioned procedures to data of the Mexico City Metropolitan Zone divided by concentric rings and conclude that the targets established in the official program are not feasible. Hence, we derive future PGRs that are both in line with the official targets and with the historical demographic behavior. We conclude that growth population programs should be based on this kind of analysis to be supported empirically. So, through specialized multivariate time-series techniques, we propose to obtain first an optimal estimate of a disaggregate vector of population time series and then, produce restricted forecasts in agreement with some data-based population policies here derived.     

Testing for Independence of Wage Drift and Minimum Contractual Wage: An Empirical Investigation Using Italian Aggregate Time Series

A theoretical two-stage bargaining model for wage drift and minimum contractual wage is discussed and its implication in terms of Granger-causality between the two variables is tested by using Italian aggregate time series. Empirical evidence suggests rejecting the independence of the two series. This result has, in turn, implications for policy analysis. Our findings seem to indicate the appropriateness of a policy oriented towards decentralized wage setting.     

Union Activism,Workers’ Satisfaction and Organizational Change

Abstract. This paper investigates the reaction of active union members towards workplace organizational changes. We use micro‐data from a large firm and estimate an empirical model which deals explicitly with the potential endogeneity of the union activist status. The data indicate that workers who become union activists are more likely to complain than members. Moreover, after proper allowance is made for the endogeneity of union activism, we find this effect to be reinforced. This result suggests that activists are not inherently against organizational changes, as compared to non‐activists, though they report higher dissatisfaction in anticipation of the greater loss in union rents that is likely to be associated with the change.     

Mechanism Design with Interdependent Valuations: Efficiency

Agents' valuations are interdependent if they depend on the signals, or types, of all agents. Under the implicit assumption that agents cannot observe their outcome‐decision payoffs, previous literature has shown that with interdependent valuations and independent signals, efficient design is impossible. This paper shows that an efficient mechanism exists in an environment where first the final outcome (e.g., allocation of the goods) is determined, then the agents observe their own outcome‐decision payoffs, and then final transfers are made.     

The Touchard distribution

We present a novel model, which is a two-parameter extension of the Poisson distribution. Its normalizing constant is related to the Touchard polynomials, hence the name of this model. It is a flexible distribution that can account for both under- or overdispersion and concentration of zeros that are frequently found in non-Poisson count data. In contrast to some other generalizations, the Hessian matrix for maximum likelihood estimation of the Touchard parameters has a simple form. We exemplify with three data sets, showing that our suggested model is a competitive candidate for fitting non-Poisson counts.     

Sequential procedures for poverty gap dominance

Poverty evaluations differ from welfare evaluations in one significant aspect, the existence of a threshold or reference point, the poverty line. We build up normative evaluation models in which comparisons are made taking distances from this reference point rather than from the origin to be ethically relevant, by focussing upon poverty gaps and not incomes. When poverty lines differ for different groups in a socially heterogeneous population, choosing poverty gaps instead of incomes as the relevant indicator brings in normatively appealing classes of poverty indices not previously accommodated, for which poverty comparisons are implemented through sequential poverty gap curves (or poverty gap distributions) dominance. These conditions are logically related to those suggested by Atkinson and Bourguignon (Arrow and the foundations of the theory of economic policy, Macmillan, London, 1987) and Bourguignon (J Econom 42:67–80, 1989) for welfare comparisons. However, the proportion of poor individuals in the society and their average poverty gap play a role in our comparisons, though they do not in the existing poverty dominance criteria for heterogeneous populations.     

Design and technology in the development of potters' lathes for modeling with terracota: the case of Cabo de Santo Agostinho

This article reports the experience of the design team of the Laboratory The Imaginary in the process of developing an electric potter's lathe which respects the biomechanics of the body, helps to development the task, maintains the archetype of traditional equipment, and improves the mechanical efficiency of the power transmission system. The design method used was based on the axes of research, analysis, development and monitoring, and focused on the product and with partners: the artisans and engineering and production teams. The main results point to ergonomic improvements in the biomechanical and dimensional aspects, and a decrease in the risk of accidents and occupational diseases. The experience of this case also highlights the gains arising from the relationship between design, engineering and users (artisans) in developing products with a design that can be easily replicated for other communities of potters in the state. This and other actions are part of the outlook of the Laboratory the Imaginary which in partnership with local authorities, wishes to see the craft activities continue and to give value to the culture of the city.