Statistical inference for start-up demonstration tests with rejection of units upon observing d failures

In this paper, we consider the statistical inference for the success probability in the case of start-up demonstration tests in which rejection of units is possible when a pre-fixed number of failures is observed before the required number of consecutive successes are achieved for acceptance of the unit. Since the expected value of the stopping time is not a monotone function of the unknown parameter, the method of moments is not useful in this situation. Therefore, we discuss two estimation methods for the success probability: (1) the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm and (2) Bayesian estimation with a beta prior. We examine the small-sample properties of the MLE and Bayesian estimator. Finally, we present an example to illustrate the method of inference discussed here.     

Defining Nations in Asia and Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Ethnic Return Migration Policy1

We argue that regional comparison of East Asian and European ethnic return migration policy offers important new perspectives on nationhood, nondiscrimination norms, and trans‐nationality. We find that despite international nondiscrimination norms, preferential ethnic return policy is common in both regions. These policies at least implicitly define the nation as existing across borders. However, there are significant regional differences. East Asian states use co‐ethnic preferences instrumentally for economic goals and also offer preferential treatment of co‐ethnic foreign investors. European states offer preferences to coethnics to protect these populations or express symbolic ties, sometimes at great expense. Thus, in Europe the state has an obligation to assist coethnics abroad, but in Asia, foreign coethnics assist the state.     

中国城市群基本概念的再认知

城市群并不是孤立封闭的体系,它是与邻近区域内、特别是经济发达的城镇密集区的特定区域范围内不同规模的城市(镇)有着密切联系,依托优越的自然环境基础和发达的交通运输体系以及信息网络形成的一个比较完整的有机整体。尤其是在全球经济一体化以及新型城镇化的新形势下,城市群区内每一个城市均发挥着区域经济增长点和城市功能的特殊作用,并依托城乡一体化区域发挥着强大的辐射作用(包括集聚与疏散作用)。本文在这一基础上深入分析了中国城市群是由城镇化高度发育而形成这一动力问题;论证城市群与城镇密集区的相似性,并对我国城市群范围的识别标准和城市群基本概念的再认识,比较完整地概括了当前我国城市群研究动态与阶段性成果,以供我国城市地理与经济学工作者参考,以便更加深入地研究中国城市群的特有现象和各类问题。     

Contested news values and media performance during the Umbrella Movement

Social crises are a huge challenge to the performance of the media. The norms and routines of news making with which journalists comply can become problematic in the context of intensive public sentiment and empathy. News values, including the sacred belief in objective reporting, are questioned in the light of controversies over editorial judgment within and outside the newsroom. I examine the contested news values that manifested in the Umbrella Movement of Hong Kong in 2014. In particular, I focus on the arguments and deliberations regarding news objectivity, which involved several parameters of the performance of the media during this social crisis.     

Hedging Barrier Options in GARCH Models with Transaction Costs

This study proposes a modified strike‐spread method for hedging barrier options in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models with transaction costs. A simulation study was conducted to investigate the hedging performance of the proposed method in comparison with several well‐known static methods for hedging barrier options. An accurate, easy‐to‐implement and fast scheme for generating the first passage time under the GARCH framework which enhances the accuracy and efficiency of the simulation is also proposed. Simulation results and an empirical study using real data indicate that the proposed approach has a promising performance for hedging barrier options in GARCH models when transaction costs are taken into consideration.     

Risk and its Management in Post-Financial Crisis Hong Kong

In the 1970s and up until the financial crisis occurred in the late 1990s, Hong Kong prospered in a relatively stable social, economic and political context. Since the financial crisis, however, its population has been increasingly exposed to risk: there has been job uncertainty and decreasing capacity for self‐reliance, leading to a growing reliance on public welfare and on families at a time when both are under pressure. The old welfare policies, unable to cope with the new risks, have been replaced by neo‐liberal reforms, redistributing the roles and responsibilities of the individual and the state, with a greater burden falling on the former. Individuals are required to be prudent to manage risk. While these reforms have relieved some of the burden on the state, both new social risk groups and ‘net taxpayers’ considered themselves to have borne disproportional costs. Society is facing serious problems resulting from ineffective old welfare policies, new social risks due to new policies, and the political upheavals arising from increased social conflicts and weakened social cohesion and solidarity. A further complication is that there is no acceptable platform or agent to negotiate a compromise between the polarized groups. This article argues that reliance on publicly funded risk coping strategies or on neo‐liberal risk prevention and mitigation strategies is not a desirable and sustainable policy. A commonly accepted political platform is required to negotiate a compromise which emphasizes shared and balanced roles and responsibilities, and a well‐conceived combination of risk prevention, mitigation and coping strategies.     

Protecting the ageing poor or strengthening the market economy: the case of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund

The Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) launched by the Hong Kong government seems to be a residual welfare state's strategy to cope with an ageing population and, at the same time, preserve a minimal welfare state and further enhance economic development. The MPF can only provide limited protection for a limited number of employees; many older people still have to depend on financial support from their families or have to work. On the other hand, the MPF immediately boosts the economy by creating more jobs for the financial services sector and by providing more business opportunities for banks and insurance companies. Thus, the MPF has consolidated the foundation of Hong Kong's capitalism by socialising and incorporating the whole working population in the market economy but has provided little protection for their old age.     

Caseworkers as a source of hope leading to perceptions of academic success for transitional age foster youth

Research among adolescent samples has consistently demonstrated that a hopeful mindset is associated with resilience and global well-being. Further, research suggests that hope is influenced from an early age from connections with supportive caregivers. However, because older youth in the child welfare system may lack supportive caregivers, alternative sources of hope may be needed. To test a theory that supportive child welfare caseworkers can serve as external sources of hope, we conducted a cross-sectional study of youth in the child welfare system from a single state (N = 149). Using surveys with established scales to measure the variables of interest, the study tested a structural equation model of (1) youth's external hope in their caseworker as a driver of (2) internal hope in themselves leading to (3) more positive perceptions of academic success. Perceptions of academic success were chosen as the final consequence of the model because academic success has been linked to many other variables of well-being across the lifespan. The results indicate that the proposed structural model fits the data well (χ² = 327.9, df = 150; P < 0.001; root-mean-square error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.09 [90% confidence interval – CI: 0.076, 0.103]; comparative fit index [CFI]: 0.920; standardized root-mean-square residual [SRMR]: 0.05). The results indicate that youths' hope in themselves had origins in external hope in the caseworker. Moreover, the final consequence was an increase in perceptions of academic success. Such results have implications by revealing how case management services can positively influence foster youths' hope and thereby influence their academic success.