Prediction intervals for time series models with trend via sieve bootstrap

This paper discusses method for constructing the prediction intervals for time series model with trend using the sieve bootstrap procedure. Gasser–Müller type of kernel estimator is used for trend estimation and prediction. The boundary modification of the kernel is applied to control the edge effect and to construct the predictor of a trend.     

Emigration of Poles to the United Kingdom: history,present state and future prospects

The history of Polish immigration within the United Kingdom is several centuries old. Yet never in its history was such a mass migration as that after the Polish accession to the EU in 2004. During the over ten years that followed, almost a million Poles chose to settle in the United Kingdom. This article reviews and analyses past and present Polish emigration to the United Kingdom. It provides answers to questions regarding who the Polish immigrants are, what work they perform and how they have integrated within British society. It also considers the factors that have influenced the future dynamics of migration from Poland. Based on these, we have formed the hypothesis that while the years of 2004‐2016 saw, statistically, the largest emigration from Poland to the United Kingdom in recorded history, in the future, the number of Polish expatriates living in the United Kingdom will drop or at least the number of newcomers will decrease.     

Erratum to: Poland: A New Model of Government–Nonprofit Relations for the East?

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -     

The effect of dance therapy on the balance of women over 60 years of age: The influence of dance therapy for the elderly

Dance therapy is a physical activity that can lead to balance improvement in older adults. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effects of dance therapy on balance and risk of falls in older women. Twenty-four older women (mean age 66.4 years old) attended dance sessions for three months. Pretest/posttests were completed using the Postural Stability Test, the Limits of Stability Test, and the Fall Risk Test M-CTSIB. Results showed the Limits of Stability Test was significantly higher (17.5%) after dance classes. Regular use of dance therapy shows promise in improving balance by increasing the limits of stability.     

Assessment of the Living Conditions in Polish and German Transborder Regions in the Context of Strengthening Territorial Cohesion in the European Union: Competitiveness or Complementation?

Social Indicators Research - The European Union's regional policy aims to strengthen economic, social, and territorial cohesion and equal space development opportunities. It is an action...     

Are cities hotspots for bees? Local and regional diversity patterns lead to different conclusions

Urban Ecosystems - With the decline of natural habitats, there is an ongoing debate about the importance of the urban environment for pollinating insects. Our research assessed patterns in wild bee...     

Neyman-type sample allocation for domains-efficient estimation in multistage sampling

We consider a problem of allocation of a sample in two- and three-stage sampling. We seek allocation which is both multi-domain and population efficient. Choudhry et al. (Survey Methods 38(1):23–29, 2012) recently considered such problem for one-stage stratified simple random sampling without replacement in domains. Their approach was through minimization of the sample size under constraints on relative variances in all domains and on the overall relative variance. To attain this goal, they used nonlinear programming. Alternatively, we minimize here the relative variances in all domains (controlling them through given priority weights) as well as the overall relative variance under constraints imposed on total (expected) cost. We consider several two- and three-stage sampling schemes. Our aim is to shed some light on the analytic structure of solutions rather than in deriving a purely numerical tool for sample allocation. To this end, we develop the eigenproblem methodology introduced in optimal allocation problems in Niemiro and Wesołowski (Appl Math 28:73–82, 2001) and recently updated in Wesołowski and Wieczorkowski (Commun Stat Theory Methods 46(5):2212–2231, 2017) by taking under account several new sampling schemes and, more importantly, by the (single) total expected variable cost constraint. Such approach allows for solutions which are direct generalization of the Neyman-type allocation. The structure of the solution is deciphered from the explicit allocation formulas given in terms of an eigenvector \({\underline{v}}^*\) of a population-based matrix \(\mathbf{D}\). The solution we provide can be viewed as a multi-domain version of the Neyman-type allocation in multistage stratified SRSWOR schemes.

     

Reproductive rights or duties? The rhetoric of division in social media debates on abortion law in Poland

ABSTRACT

This study explores the argumentative schemas used in claim-making and the rhetorical resources for stance-taking in the online abortion law debate in Poland in late 2016. It shows how these discursive devices were used to divide and discredit the opponent in the social media by two social movements: the Stop Abortion coalition of conservative and religious organizations that sponsored the legislative proposal to considerably restrict abortion, and the Save Women committee that stood behind the ‘black’ protests opposing the project. The textual material is drawn from social media profiles of the two movements following a week of intense street protests and publicity activities (19–26 October 2016). It is subjected to contrastive argument analysis and critical discourse analysis of rhetorical resources. The analysis involves comparing (1) the discrepant premises underpinning arguments in the process of claim-making; (2) the reverse distribution of legitimization techniques deployed; and (3) the choices of name-calling devices aimed at discrediting antagonists.