The Replication Problem in Sociology: A Report and a Suggestion*

The deleterious effects of joint bias in favor of statistical inference and against replication are becoming well known. The acceptance of numerous Type I errors into the literature is by far the most serious of these. Data on the contents of three major journals support the contention that a joint bias for statistical significance tests, for rejections, and against replication exists in modern sociology. This finding replicates that of Sterling (1959) for psychology. A speculative analysis of the dynamics of publication decisions suggests that a compact format for reporting replications might make their publication more attractive to editors, and thus increase their frequency in the literature. A possible format for briefly reporting replication studies is suggested.     

THE LONG RUN BEHAVIOR OF THE INCOME VELOCITY OF MONEY IN FIVE ADVANCED COUNTRIES, 1870–1975: AN INSTITUTIONAL APPROACH

The income velocity of money in Canada, the United States, Great Britain, Norway and Sweden displays a U-shaped pattern over the last one hundred years. This paper presents and tests empirically an explanation for this secular pattern emphasizing the influence on velocity of institutional changes. The inclusion into a simple velocity function of institutional developments such as the process of monetization, the spread of commercial banking, financial development and the growth of economic stability improves the explanation of long-run movements in velocity provided by a regression of velocity on real permanent income per head and the interest rate.     

Private Children's Homes

Summary The paper provides survey and intensive research material onthe private children's homes sector. It is shown that this sectoris currently in decline. Private homes are found to be shelteringchildren with long and complex care histories and to adopt adistinctive residential style. Although private homes providevaluable long term continuity, they are less likely to offerthe same range of community services as do residential settingsmanaged by the local authority and voluntary child care agencies.     

Recombinant Family Formation Strategies1

Abstract In contrast to the 'modernization' model of demographic change, popularized by the publications of the European Fertility Project, this paper sets the revolution in family life in an historical perspective. First, I briefly consider the creation of a distinctly north-west European system of production and reproduction; second, I discuss how this regime led to the emergence of a revolutionary solution to the population/resources squeeze in early modern England; third, I consider how it came to be severely dis-equilibrated in the period of industrialization, urbanization and improvements in life-expectation which became generalized in the age of the Industrial Revolution; and, fourth, I propose that the re-equilibration that we celebrate within the rubric of the Demographic Transition can perhaps be more effectively understood as both an innovation and an adjustment which occurred in response to the historical ruptures - demographic and economic, cultural and political - engendered by the twin processes of material change and state formation.     

CREDENTIALS AND CAPACITIES:

The "new structuralism" in stratification research has made important contributions to our understanding of job assignment by directing attention to the demand side of labor markets. This article builds on this work by conceptualizing job matching in terms of labor market transactions (hirings and promotions). Detailed quantitative and case study evidence is presented to ask how employers perceive the link between schooling and the acquisition of skills required for job performance. The results show that employers generally see a link between schooling and the acquisition of both general and specific skills, but rarely feel very strongly about this and are often willing to concede that skills might well have been acquired elsewhere. Managers hiring from the outside and managers assigning promotions differ in the information they glean from the educational credentials of job candidates. Little evidence is found that any one theory (human capital, screening, credentialism, or cultural capital) can account for the pattern of results.     

Career Patterns in Child Care--Implications for Service

Correspondence to Dr David H. Thorpe, Senior Lecturer in Social Work, Department of Social Administration, Fylde College, Lancaster LA1 4YF Summary This paper reports an empirical study of the 12-month careersof 231 children who entered care in one local authority in 1985.Career is analysed primarily in terms of length of time in care(weeks), legal status, age on ently to care and placement changesin care. The study shows that almost half the children who enteredcare went home within 6 weeks, and that those who stayed onin care after that time stood only a 1 in 3 chance of goinghome before one year. Onl a quarter of these children remainedin the same placement during their year in care. Drawing onbackground data derived from recently published child care researchand successful diversionaiy intermediate treatment schemes thepaper outlines child care practices which are targeted on childrenwho remain in care beyond 6 weeks and who would benefit fromintensive efforts to restore them to natural parents.