风险，创新激励政策中被忽视的关键要素

创新是经济持续增长的核心动力,鼓励创新是各国国家创新战略的关键.现行的创新相关政策忽视了如何从风险管理的角度,系统地控制和分散从事创新活动的参与者所面临的风险.本文试图从这个被人忽视的视角,探讨如何鼓励人们进行自主创新的逻辑框架;并对相关理论研究假设进行了实证检验,以期为政府决策者提供新思路.     

公共卫生与城市现代性:1898-1949年的上海

20世纪前半期是上海城市现代化发展的重要时期,而卫生制度在其中充当了重要的推动角色。公共卫生制度的形成是租界正向示范和反向刺激、政府和民众的民族意识觉醒、华洋冲突与合作等多方作用的结果。公共卫生引发了国家与社会的互动,民间社会力量在近代上海公共卫生的发展中广泛参与,民众个体的文明习性因此逐渐养成,推动了上海都市文明的进程,反映了近代上海城市现代性的增长。     

朝核危机的最新发展态势及未来发展趋势

朝核问题的复杂性和谋求解决的困难程度关键在于朝美两个主要当事国之间的敌对关系及相互间不信任。朝核危机依然是威胁地区甚至全球安全最重要的因素之一，根据朝鲜过去多变善变的情况，六方会谈的前景依然迷雾重重，因而朝鲜半岛和东北亚局势今后将经历一段不确定时期；最大的可能性是谈，通过六方会谈机制，以外交谈判方式，和平解决朝核危机，实现半岛无核化，是解决朝核危机最理想的结果，也是六方会谈所要达到的最高目标；影响这一“最高目标”的两个因素是美国新政府有无对朝“新思维”、朝鲜有无“弃核”的意志。     

鞍山 从废墟中站起的中国钢都

从共和国第一炉铁水、钢水诞生的那一刻算起,鞍钢为新中国钢铁工业创造了多个第一,被誉为"共和国钢铁工业长子"、 "新中国钢铁工业摇篮":1953年10月27日,第一根无缝钢管在鞍钢诞生,11月30日,第一根重轨在鞍钢问世; 12月19日,第一座现代化高炉流出第一炉铁水, "一五"期间,鞍钢成为新中国第一个大型钢铁生产基地,并涌现出孟泰、王崇伦等一批劳动模范……     

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Entrance Assessment Model Through Air Passenger Violations

This article aims to construct a risk model for the prediction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) entrance caused by passengers who illegally carry meat products of cloven-hoofed animals through international airports into a country. The risk that meat contaminated with the FMD virus is formulated as the probabilities of FMD factor events (the prevalence of FMD), the commodity factor event (the transportation, storage, and distribution (TSD) factor event), and the passenger event. Data used for analysis were records of illegal meat product carriers from areas A and B intercepted at an international airport in Taiwan. A risk model was proposed to simulate the probability distributions in disease prevalence, probability of FMD virus existing in the meat products after meat processing, and estimation of survival of virus and time period for TSD. The probability of the passenger event was hypothesized with the odds of intercepted passengers and estimated via logistic regression. The results showed that the odds of passengers being intercepted by beagles were higher than those intercepted by Customs. By conducting Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of FMD virus risk caused by FMD factors from area A was 149 times lower than that from area B. The probability of FMD virus risk caused by the passenger event from area A was four times lower than the corresponding probability from area B. The model provides a contribution to FMD prevention and can be a reference for developing models of other diseases.     

政府采购与经济增长的实证研究——基于ARMA最优模型

本文采用基于ARMA模型适用于小样本的最优预测的建模方法,来分析政府采购和经济增长之间的因果关系。研究结果表明政府采购和经济增长之间存在非对称、单向因果关系,即政府采购对经济增长的影响不显著,而经济增长对政府采购具有促进作用。因此,从政府采购影响路径的角度分析认为,在后金融危机时代应该采取一些可行的措施扭转政府采购对经济增长的不显著状况。     

不同震级作用下的设备 结构动力相互作用体系地震反应分析

为研究是否考虑设备 结构动力相互作用在不同地震阶段的差别,对建筑结构中常见的设备 结构相互作用体系进行了小震、中震和大震阶段的地震时程反应分析。分析了不同震级作用下考虑相互作用后给结构与设备的地震反应带来的变化。结果表明：考虑设备 结构动力相互作用与不考虑相互作用相比,结构的地震反应有较明显的区别,设备的地震反应有很大的区别,处于完全失真的状态。大震阶段由于设备和结构均进入了弹塑性阶段,刚度等主要参数发生了变化,导致动力相互作用的影响降低。虽然设备质量占结构总地震质量的比例很小,但仍会对结构位移与内力造成较大的影响。     

论宪法中的权界式公民义务规范

以义务性规范的形式对宪法权利作出的限制规定,就是宪法中的权界式公民义务规范,它有概括限制型和具体限制型两种类型。宪法权利的法律保留限制式规定,不应视为公民义务规范。权界式义务规范在创设目的、出现位置、表述转换等方面与明示式义务规范有着重大区别。权界式义务规范附属于公民宪法权利规范本身,它可以转换成非义务性的表述,其实质是表示权利应当有所约束。关于宪法权利之限制规定能否被视为公民义务规范的争议,可通过形式与实质的双重视角予以化解。     

陈独秀爱国主义思想述要

陈独秀认为,健全的爱国主义应该具有三个特点:其一是所爱对象为民主之国,值得去爱;其二是爱国方式符合理性,能顺应国家的形势要求;其三是爱国落实在私德之上,完善自我就是爱国。     

Opportunities for woman-initiated HIV prevention methods among female sex workers in southern China

Rapid changes in China over the past two decades have led to significant problems associated with population migration and changing social attitudes, including a growing sex industry and concurrent increases in STIs and HIV. This article reports results of an exploratory study of microbicide acceptability and readiness and current HIV prevention efforts among female sex workers in two rural and one urban town in Hainan and Guangxi Provinces in southern China. The study focused on these women's knowledge and cultural understandings of options for protecting themselves from exposure to STIs and HIV, and the potential viability and acceptability of woman-initiated prevention methods. We report on ethnographic elicitation interviews conducted with women working within informal sex-work establishments (hotels, massage and beauty parlors, roadside restaurants, boarding houses). We discuss implications of these findings for further promotion of woman-initiated prevention methods such as microbicides and female condoms among female sex workers in China.