技术进步、内生人口增长与产业结构转型

文章把工业革命、内生人口增长和产业结构理论统一在一个理论框架内,指出工业革命的主要作用是影响必需品和非必需品部门的相对技术进步速度进而影响相对价格,从而决定着人口增长的转型、产业结构的转型和人类社会从"马尔萨斯陷阱"到现代经济增长的转型过程.我们的模型不仅为"马尔萨斯之谜"提供了一个全新的理论解释,而且能够较好地克服传统的人力资本理论不能解释横截面数据、只适合解释欧洲等不足之处,同时又为产业结构在工业革命之后的转型提供了合理的解释.     

低生育水平下的生育成本收益研究——来自江苏省的调查

文章应用江苏生育意愿与生育行为调查结果,研究符合二孩生育政策妇女的生育行为、生育计划和生育观念,主要从妇女的角度分析生育威本和生育收益,并应用多元统计分析方法重点分析生育成本对妇女生育计划的影响.研究发现,育龄妇女大多认为满足精神需求是最重要的生育理由,而第二个孩子的养育成本是主要考虑因素.在控制了年龄、受教育程度、居住地、户口性质、婚姻状况、生育观念等特征后,生育的经济成本和心理成本对妇女生育二孩的计划有显著影响.     

Are the poor worse at dealing with ambiguity?

This paper studies the relationship between people’s ambiguity attitudes and income in the field using language as a natural source of ambiguity. It shows that the method of Baillon et al. (2017b) can be adapted for field studies, providing ambiguity measurement tasks that are more comprehensible for nonacademic subjects. Ambiguity attitudes were elicited in two groups of Chinese adolescents (poor rural and rich urban), among whom the income variation is big. In the rural group the poorer are both more ambiguity averse and more a-insensitive, whereas in the urban group the richer are more a-insensitivite. On average, the poor rural adolescents are worse at dealing with ambiguity than their urban counterparts. A-insensitivity, which measures people’s understanding of an ambiguous situation, is an important but sometimes neglected component of ambiguity attitude. Policies aiming to help people improve decisions may focus more on reducing a-insensitivity as this cognitive bias is more likely to be influenced by intervention than people’s intrinsic aversion towards ambiguity.     

当代民主党派领导干部成长规律 ——基于全国人大代表、 政协常委的实证研究

以十二届全国人大代表、十二届全国政协委员中的副处级以上民主党派领导干部为样本,采用描述性统计分析和相关性分析方法,揭示了当代民主党派领导干部成长规律.从职业职务视角看,本职职业发展历程模式以专业技术类转为领导类居多,有机关单位中下层岗位经历的不多;无论是初任各职务级别的领域,还是现任不同职务级别的分布领域,都有一定倾向性;领导正职安排主要在党派人民团体和事业单位领域,职务逐级晋升与越级晋升并存.从影响因素视角看,良好的教育背景是成长的基础,初始工作领域是成长的主要平台,组织培养是成长的关键,任职经历更是职务晋升的显著性变量.     

中泰外商直接投资实证研究——以泰国金融结构金融效率为分析对象

在"一带一路"倡议的推动下,泰国作为东盟第三大经济体,以其优越的地理优势和战略地位吸引了不少中国投资者进入泰国投资,而其金融结构与金融效率对中国直接投资有着重大影响.文章通过对金融结构、金融效率及中国在泰国直接投资的分析发现,尽管泰国通货膨胀率、泰国工业生产指数对中国在泰国直接投资没有显著影响,但泰国居民消费指数、泰国商业银行存贷比率、泰国生产价格指数、泰国失业率对中国在泰国直接投资会产生负向影响,而中国与泰国之间的进出口额对中国在泰国直接投资可以产生正向影响.因此,鼓励中国投资者向泰国投资,加大两国贸易合作以及开展两国文化交流,是促进中国和泰国经济进一步发展的有效措施,也是实现互助互利,合作共赢的"一带一路"经济合作目标的有效方法.     

科学思维、技术思维与工程思维的比较研究

科学、技术与工程是人类三种不同的社会实践活动,与此相对应,科学思维、技术思维与工程思维是三种不同类型的思维方式.从思维科学高度对科学思维、技术思维与工程思维进行比较研究,对深刻把握科学、技术与工程各自的特殊本质与本性具有重要意义,有助于我们增强科学研究、技术创新与工程实践的理论自觉与行动自觉,对于丰富和发展科学哲学、技术哲学与工程哲学具有重要意义.科学思维、技术思维与工程思维在思维对象、内容、性质、逻辑结构、功能作用、形式方法、构成要素与思维过程等方面存在着很多区别,同时它们又有密切的联系.     

国际贸易的信息技术化与贸易的“量子化”——基于“贸易停滞与跨境电商激增”的统计现象分析

文章系统分析了国际贸易信息化过程中的“量子化”趋势,探索了跨境电商新模式、贸易与投资等领域深度融合的理论与实践发展,并揭示了当前贸易统计数据现象背后的结构性调整问题,提出建立综合的生态圈评价体系以充分体现和预测国际贸易的发展,并更好地发挥现代国际贸易的基本功能,推动中国的“一带一路”战略进程.     

China–Italy–Ticino Family Business Cooperation Forum Held in Ningbo

Nearly 200 family business leaders from China, Italy and Switzerland, experts, scholars and "Ningbo Enterprise Successors Union" met in Jiangbei District of Ningbo City on September 17 to attend the first China Italy Ticino Family Business Cooperation Forum.     

Modeling Comprehensive Dispersion of the Administrative Villages and Its Association with Economic Poverty: A Case Study from Poverty-Stricken Mountainous County,China

Identifying the dispersion of the administrative villages is one of prerequisites for the rational allocation of sources and services during implementing “Entire-Village Advancement” poverty alleviation strategy of China. From the perspective of an administrative village scale, this paper develops a methodology serving the construction of a comprehensive dispersion evaluation model and the examination of the relationship between dispersion and economic poverty. Specially, we develops an village-level comprehensive dispersion evaluation model that is presented in two forms of Euclidean Dispersion Index (EDI) versus Dispersion Composite Index (DCI), using spatial statistical analysis to examine the comprehensive dispersion of the administrative village and its association with the Net Income of Village Residents (NIVR) under different geographic and socioeconomic conditions. The case study in Neixiang County of China shows that, DCI is more rational and objective than EDI for scoring details of the village’s dispersion, especially in the mountainous area; DCI has a more significant spatial autocorrelation and a more significantly negative relationship to NIVR than EDI; the negative correlation between DCI and NIVR is obviously stronger in mountainous area than that in the hill and plain area; The closer to the economic circle, the higher NIVR vs. the lower DCI. Which not only provides new perspective and way to deal with dispersion, but also helps guide policies for effective poverty interventions.     

农业转移人口就近城镇化意愿的地区差异

基于对中西部地区15个省市农业转移人口就近城镇化意愿的问卷调查数据,以社会认同度为研究视角,构建多群组结构方程模型分析中西部地区人口就近城镇化意愿的地区差异及其影响因素.研究结果表明:个人特征差异性对中西部不同地区人口就近城镇化意愿影响显著;中西部不同地区农业转移人口的社会认同度与其就近城镇化意愿显著正相关,且西部地区农业转移人口受到的影响作用更明显.东部地区农业转移人口更注重职业升迁机会、职业技能水平、子女教育状况、工资待遇水平、工作环境、工作时长的满意度.西部地区农业转移人口则更关注其与市民的关系、城市社会关系网络、户籍状况、基本公共服务、城市物价水平及居住条件的改善程度.