Improved model selection criteria for SETAR time series models

The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we obtain the asymptotic properties of the modified model selection criteria proposed by Hurvich et al. (1990. Improved estimators of Kullback-Leibler information for autoregressive model selection in small samples. Biometrika 77, 709–719) for autoregressive models. Second, we provide some highlights on the better performance of this modified criteria. Third, we extend the modification introduced by these authors to model selection criteria commonly used in the class of self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) time series models. We show the improvements of the modified criteria in their finite sample performance. In particular, for small and medium sample size the frequency of selecting the true model improves for the consistent criteria and the root mean square error (RMSE) of prediction improves for the efficient criteria. These results are illustrated via simulation with SETAR models in which we assume that the threshold and the parameters are unknown.     

Ecocultural Attributes: Evaluating Ecological Degradation in Terms of Ecological Goods and Services Versus Subsistence and Tribal Values

It is becoming increasingly clear that scientists, managers, lawyers, public policymakers, and the public must decide how to value what is provided by, and is a consequence of, natural resources. While “Western” scientists have clear definitions for the goods and services that ecosystems provide, we contend that these categories do not encompass the full totality of the values provided by natural resources. Partly the confusion results from a limited view of natural resources derived from the need to monetize the value of ecosystems and their component parts. Partly it derives from the “Western” way of separating natural resources from cultural resources or values, and partly it derives from the false dichotomy of assuming that ecosystems are natural, and anything constructed by man is not natural. In this article, we explore the previous assumptions, and suggest that because cultural resources often derive from, and indeed require, intact and unspoiled natural ecosystems or settings, that these values are rightly part of natural resources. The distinction is not trivial because of the current emphasis on cleaning up chemically and radiologically contaminated sites, on restoration of damaged ecosystems, on natural resource damage assessments, and on long‐term stewardship goals. All of these processes depend upon defining natural resources appropriately. Several laws, regulations, and protocols depend upon natural resource trustees to protect natural resources on trust lands, which could lead to the circular definition that natural resources are those resources that the trustees feel they are responsible for. Where subsistence or tribal peoples are involved, the definition of natural resources should be broadened to include those ecocultural attributes that are dependent upon, and have incorporated, natural resources. For example, a traditional hunting and fishing ground is less valued by subsistence peoples if it is despoiled by contamination or physical ecosystem degradation; an Indian sacred ground is tarnished if the surrounding natural environment is degraded; a traditional homeland is less valued if the land itself is contaminated. Our argument is that intact natural resources are essential elements of many cultural resources, and this aspect requires and demands adequate consideration (and may therefore require compensation).     

THE SOLUTION-ORIENTED GENOGRAM: A COLLABORATIVE APPROACH

Developed primarily by Bowenian intergenerational therapists, genograms have evolved into largely atheoretical tools used by many therapists. Given that constructivist-based therapies have become the most popular genre of contemporary family therapies (Sprenkle & Piercy, 1992), the author examines how genograms can be used to augment a solution-oriented approach. Specific interventions, case examples, and potential problems associated with such an approach are discussed, along with potential implications for family-of-origin work.     

Three Kinds of Anti-Intellectualism: Rethinking Hofstadter*

Hofstadter's landmark analysis of anti-intellectualism in American life is interpreted within the framework of the sociology of knowledge. His analysis suggests three analytically distinct types of anti-intellectualism: religious anti-rationalism, populist anti-elitism, and unreflective instrumentalism. Each type arises from within its own distinctive institutional matrix. Although Hofstadter fails to anticipate the growing cultural impact of mass media institutions, he demonstrates convincingly that anti-intellectualism is not a unitary phenomenon.     

Do profits “crowd out” donations,or vice versa? the impact of revenues from sales on donations to local chapters of the American Red Cross

This article examines the relationship between donations to the American Red Cross and the profits, sales, costs, and prices of health and safety classes offered by local chapters. Two important questions are examined: Do profits from sales of services “crowd out” donations to local chapters of the American Red Cross? Do managers respond to changes in donations by changing prices, output, or costs of saleable services? The results suggest that nonprofit managers should pay close attention to the potential impact on donations of any change in the prices charged for saleable goods and services, and that profits, costs, and prices of services are influenced by donations.     

Parent‐Adolescent Involvement: The Relative Influence of Parent Gender and Residence

The 1995 wave of the Add Health study is used to investigate the relative influence of parent gender and residence on patterns of parental involvement with adolescents. Adolescent reports (N =17,330) of shared activities, shared communication, and relationship quality with both biological parents are utilized. A multidimensional scaling analysis reveals that parent gender explains most of the variance in parent‐adolescent involvement, with residential status playing a secondary yet a fundamental role in accounting for these patterns. Resident mothers who do not live with adolescents’ biological fathers engage in the broadest range of activities with their children. Unpartnered resident fathers display patterns of parenting that are as similar to mothers as they are to other fathers.     

Sustainable societies in the information age

This article interweaves the ideas of sustainable development, sustainable societies, and the power of advanced information technologies toward developing recommendations for social science research on information technology in society. Worldwide concern has arisen over the potentially catastrophic consequences of global climate and environmental change. As a result, sustainable development (i.e., the simultaneous protection of both the global environment and the global economy) is receiving considerable attention. Necessary for achieving sustainable development are sustainable societies, which are capable of designing, implementing, managing and evaluating long-term environmental programs. This article presents ten characteristics that describe sustainable societies and discusses how information technologies, from wireless personal digital assistants to intelligent agents to multi-media database systems, could support the evolution of sustainable societies. Topics for social science research related to designing and ameliorating the negative consequences of eight hypothetical computer-based systems are presented. Bruce E. Tonn is leader of the policy systems analysis group at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and co-principal investigator of the National Center for Environmental Decision-making Research. His research interests include environmental and energy policy, computers in society, decision making, and futures studies. He is past president of the Social Science Computing Association. His research focuses on planning, assessment and evaluation, energy use and conservation, and education.     

Two earner family migration A search theoretic approach

This paper represents the first attempt to model the two earner family decision to migrate using a joint search theoretic approach. In so doing, the paradox of a couple whose members would both migrate if single but decide not to migrate because they are married to each other is discovered and explained. Furthermore the impact of the rising number of working women and reentry of wives into the labor force on the extent and regional pattern of migration is discussed. Extensions to the model are addressed, as well as future avenues of research, both theoretical and empirical. It is suggested that the search theoretic approach, not previously applied to models of family migration, is the most appropriate.