美国与日本战争赔偿方式的演变

战后日本战争赔偿方式在美国的控制下先后经历了从实物赔偿到劳务赔偿再到资本赔偿的变迁。随着对东南亚的赔偿最终被纳入美国东亚遏制政策的轨道 ,日本得以将惩罚性的战争赔偿转变为一种有效的经济外交手段     

论《周易》中圣人崇拜思想及影响

《周易》的圣人崇拜思想 ,既有积极作用 ,更多的是消极作用 ,必须在新时代加以转换     

论跨越式发展

中国正在工业化过程中和现代化初期,经济发展有着广阔的空间;中国共产党的领导和先进的社会主义制度.是实现跨越式发展的最根本的保证;20多年的改革开放为实现跨越式发展奠定了坚实的物质基础;科学技术迅猛发展,为跨越式发展提供了便利的条件。这就要求我们大力推进科技进步和创新,全面提高全民族的素质。深化改革,不断调动各方面的积极性,培养和造就一支适应知识经济时代的科技人才队伍,以实现生产力的跨越式发展。     

AIDS as a political issue: working with the sexually prostituted in the Philippines

An estimated 200,000-500,000 men, women, and children work in prostitution in the Philippines in a variety of venues, including brothels, nightclubs, pubs, massage parlors, and other legitimate entertainment establishments. Few, however, are voluntary prostitutes. Many people who work as prostitutes have been recruited from the provinces, kept in conditions similar to slavery, and forced to earn money from prostitution to pay for their transportation, board, and lodging. Many prostitutes work in urban centers and tourist resorts in the countryside. During the 1970s, then President Ferdinand Marcos promoted tourism as a major industry, effectively marketing attractive Filipinas to tourists. Sex tourism has flourished in the country ever since. Thousands of prostitutes are also located in Olongapo and Angeles, 2 cities north of Manila, from where they serve the sexual desires of US military personnel. The presence of US military personnel in the Philippines has always been associated with prostitution. The country's social hygiene centers, prostitutes in Manila and Davao, and AIDS education are briefly discussed.     

A time series model for cohort data

A univariate time-series model is presented for projecting age- or duration-specific data for recent cohorts. The model is also capable of taking period effects into account, is illustrated using Dutch data on marital fertility rates.     

The Seveso Directive: An Italian Pilot Study in Enabling Communication

In 1982 the Council of the European Communities issued a Directive on the Major Accident Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities, commonly known as the Seveso Directive. Besides other requirements, the Directive specifies that members of the public liable to be affected by a major accident from certain industrial activities must be informed of safety measures and how they should behave in the event of an accident. The Directive was subsequently amended in an extensive way. Upon the transposition of the Seveso Directive and its amendments into national legislations, the 12 European Member States are faced with the task of "appropriately and effectively" informing the public about major accident hazards. Delays are observed throughout the community, both in transposing the Directives and implementing public information. A pilot study on "Risk Information Needs" was commissioned and carried out at two Seveso sites in Italy in order to begin to resolve some of the problems involved in the provision of public information and to suggest appropriate guidelines. One hundred subjects answered an experimental protocol designed to assess their "information needs." This article presents the theoretical background, the pragmatic aims, and the design of the study. It also summarizes its most relevant findings and suggests some recommendations for the provision of information to the public.     

International and internal migration decision making: a value-expectancy based analytical framework of intentions to move from a rural Philippine province

"The study compares determinants of internal and international migration intentions, drawing upon interview data from a sample of adults in Ilocos Norte, a largely rural province in the Philippines. A regression model is applied to test the relative determinants of intentions to migrate to Manila and to Hawaii. The study is based on a value-expectancy model of migration decision making. The results document the importance of subjective expectations related to the attainment of different values and goals in Manila and Hawaii."     

组织文化度量:本土模型的构建与实证研究

本文旨在构建本土化的组织文化度量模型,并检验模型的有效性.作者在质性研究的基础上,从"组织对利益相关者的价值判断"与"组织对管理行为的价值判断"两个角度来构建我国组织文化度量模型.前者由组织对股东、客户、员工、社会大众等组织利益相关者价值判断维度构成,后者由组织文化动力特征、效率特征、秩序特征与和谐特征四个子模块构成.在验证性因子分析中,假设模型得到了很好的验证.本文最后比较了本土化模型与国外已有的重要模型在研究逻辑和方法上的差异,并对我国企业文化建设实践提出了若干建议.     

M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping

Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately, cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation, using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier robust inference. An alternative approach to small area estimation that is based on the use of M-quantile models was recently proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (Biometrika 93(2):255–268, 2006) and Tzavidis and Chambers (Robust prediction of small area means and distributions. Working paper, 2007). Unlike traditional random effects models, M-quantile models do not depend on strong distributional assumption and automatically provide outlier robust inference. In this paper we illustrate for the first time how M-quantile models can be practically employed for deriving small area estimates of poverty and inequality. The methodology we propose improves the traditional poverty mapping methods in the following ways: (a) it enables the estimation of the distribution function of the study variable within the small area of interest both under an M-quantile and a random effects model, (b) it provides analytical, instead of empirical, estimation of the mean squared error of the M-quantile small area mean estimates and (c) it employs a robust to outliers estimation method. The methodology is applied to data from the 2002 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) in Albania for estimating (a) district level estimates of the incidence of poverty in Albania, (b) district level inequality measures and (c) the distribution function of household per-capita consumption expenditure in each district. Small area estimates of poverty and inequality show that the poorest Albanian districts are in the mountainous regions (north and north east) with the wealthiest districts, which are also linked with high levels of inequality, in the coastal (south west) and southern part of country. We discuss the practical advantages of our methodology and note the consistency of our results with results from previous studies. We further demonstrate the usefulness of the M-quantile estimation framework through design-based simulations based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information and show that the M-quantile approach may be preferable when the aim is to estimate the small area distribution function.