绍兴平湖调研究报告

该文从绍兴平湖调的本体结构、平湖调与邻近曲种的关系、平湖调的源流及现状、平湖调研究中的问题及建议等方面做了论述,分析了平湖调艺术的生存现状和衰败的原因,进而对绍兴平湖调在地方经济飞速发展的今天,在中西音乐文化碰撞中,如何传承拓展,理析出新的思路。     

论唐代"恶少年"的反社会倾向

"恶少年"是唐代一个特殊的社会群体.在唐代,尽管他们背离生活正道,犯法作恶,却是一支各方面都不敢忽视的重要力量.每值国家多事之秋,他们就积极应募,因而成为唐代的重要兵源.然而每逢政局动荡,他们又积极参预宫廷斗争,发动暴乱,投靠藩镇,表现出强烈的反社会倾向,其消极作用大于积极一面.     

公允价值选择影响因素综述

从公允价值选择的发展过程看,"三大假说"是解释公允价值选择的理论基础,而"机会主义观"和"效率观"是公允价值选择的理论发展。文章从实证会计理论基础——"三大假说""效率观"和"机会主义观"出发,对国内外关于公允价值选择影响因素的相关研究进行述评。从文献回顾的过程中,可以看出,"三大假说"是"机会主义观"的具体体现,"机会主义观"和"效率观"共同影响着公允价值的选择,并且企业业绩、管理层薪酬、债务合同、企业规模、信息不对称、信息质量和估值成本等都是影响企业选择公允价值的因素。最后,结合当前国内外的研究现状,对公允价值未来研究方向提出一些展望。     

First-order random coefficients integer-valued threshold autoregressive processes

In this paper, we introduce a first-order random coefficient integer-valued threshold autoregressive process, which is based on binomial thinning. Basic probabilistic and statistical properties of this model are discussed. Conditional least squares and conditional maximum likelihood estimators are derived for both the cases that the threshold variable is known or not. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Moreover, forecasting problem is addressed. Finally, some numerical results of the estimates and a real data example are presented.     

An Approximation Model of the Collective Risk Model with INAR(1) Claim Process

Cossette et al. (2010 Cossette, H., Marceau, E., Maume-Deschamps, V. (2010). Discerte-time risk models based on time series for count random variables. ASTIN Bull. 40:123–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2011 Cossette, H., Marceau, E., Toureille, F. (2011). risk models based on time series for count random variables. Insur. Math. Econ. 48:19–28.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) gave a novel collective risk model where the total numbers of claims satisfy the first-order integer-valued autoregressive process. For a risk model, it is interesting to investigate the upper bound of ruin probability. However, the loss increments of the above model are dependent; it is difficult to derive the upper bound of ruin probability. In this article, we propose an approximation model with stationary independent increments. The upper bound of ruin probability and the adjustment coefficient are derived. The approximation model is illustrated via four simulated examples. Results show that the gap of the approximation model and dependent model can be ignored by adjusting values of parameters.     

Variable selection and estimation for multivariate panel count data via the seamless‐${\it L}_{{\rm 0}}$ penalty

This paper considers regression analysis of multivariate panel count data with the focus on variable selection and estimation of significant covariate effects. For the problem, we adopt the penalized estimating equation approach with a focus on the use of the seamless‐$L_0$ penalty. The proposed approach selects variables and estimates regression coefficients simultaneously and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimates are established. The procedure can be easily carried out with the Newton–Raphson algorithm and is evaluated by simulation studies. Also it is applied to a motivating data set arising from a skin cancer study. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 368–385; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

A mixture integer-valued ARCH model

We propose a mixture integer-valued ARCH model for modeling integer-valued time series with overdispersion. The model consists of a mixture of K stationary or non-stationary integer-valued ARCH components. The advantages of the mixture model over the single-component model include the ability to handle multimodality and non-stationary components. The necessary and sufficient first- and second-order stationarity conditions, the necessary arbitrary-order stationarity conditions, and the autocorrelation function are derived. The estimation of parameters is done through an EM algorithm, and the model is selected by three information criterions, whose performances are studied via simulations. Finally, the model is applied to a real dataset.     

On a perturbed MAP risk model under a threshold dividend strategy

In this paper, we consider a perturbed risk model where the claims arrive according to a Markovian arrival process (MAP) under a threshold dividend strategy. We derive the integro-differential equations for the Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty function and the moments of total dividend payments until ruin, obtain the analytical solutions to these equations, and give numerical examples to illustrate our main results. We also get a matrix renewal equation for the Gerber–Shiu function, and present some asymptotic formulas for the Gerber–Shiu function when the claim size distributions are heavy-tailed.     

A class of observation-driven random coefficient INAR(1) processes based on negative binomial thinning

Integer-valued time series models and their applications have attracted a lot of attention over the last years. In this paper, we introduce a class of observation-driven random coefficient integer-valued autoregressive processes based on negative binomial thinning, where the autoregressive parameter depends on the observed values of the previous moment. Basic probability and statistics properties of the process are established. The unknown parameters are estimated by the conditional least squares and empirical likelihood methods. Specially, we consider three aspects of the empirical likelihood method: maximum empirical likelihood estimate, confidence region and EL test. The performance of the two estimation methods is compared through simulation studies. Finally, an application to a real data example is provided.     

大学生科研创新能力课外培养模式研究——基于某理工科大学文科学生调查结果的分析

大学生科研创新能力的培养是高等教育中的重要一环,科研创新能力的课外培养是课堂教学的有力补充.但当前中国理工科高校文科学生科研创新能力课外培养环节还存在一定问题.通过对某理工科大学文科学生科研活动的调查研究,系统分析现阶段理工科背景下文科学生科研创新能力培养现状,在充分结合文科学生的特点的基础上,初步构建了理工科院校文科学生科研创新能力课外培养模式,提出制定和完善的文科学生科研创新课外培养的方案.